South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 08 Feb 2021 Onward

[divadee]

Glad to see some members getting a covering. Nothing here, and I slept with the window slightly open so not even that cold here! 

[gman88667733]

Less snow than a few weeks ago actually, more like a thin layer here. Can't complain though!

[Dorsetbred]

Morning All, after an overnight low of -4.4°C at: 00:49, currently -2.1°C (28.3°F), Apparent temp -5.1°C, with a light breeze in from the ENE providing a decent wind chill..

[saintkip]

7 hours ago, CentralSouthernSnow said:

Because Scotland is used to that weather 

Read the Scotland regional, they haven’t had snow like it for years, it’s exceptional even for them.

[AWD]

Modelling now coming to some sort of agreement with regards to Saturday.  Looking like an ever weakening occlusion will slowly traverse ENE across the region, rapidly losing its PPN as the cold, dry air ahead of it essentially "sucks" the moisture up.  Snapshot of the 0z ICON;

And 0z Arpege below;

along with, to a lesser extent, the overnight 03z UKV, all now suggest this similiar theme.  So no significant snowfall is looking likely, more a cold to very cold feeling day with patchy outbreaks of light snow moving eastwards. Still a wintry day then but nothing significant at all.

I can confirm, the white flag has now been raised on significant snowfall prospects (IMBY) this week;

On another note, some very springlike temperatures COULD be on the way next week.  Once we get the rain out the way on Sun/Mon/Tues, then with a bit of sunshine possible, it could feel quite warm really.

[snowysouth]

6 minutes ago, AWD said:

Modelling now coming to some sort of agreement with regards to Saturday.  Looking like an ever weakening occlusion will slowly traverse ENE across the region, rapidly losing its PPN as the cold, dry air ahead of it essentially "sucks" the moisture up.  Snapshot of the 0z ICON;

And 0z Arpege below;

along with, to a lesser extent, the overnight 03z UKV, all now suggest this similiar theme.  So no significant snowfall is looking likely, more a cold to very cold feeling day with patchy outbreaks of light snow moving eastwards. Still a wintry day then but nothing significant at all.

I can confirm, the white flag has now been raised on significant snowfall prospects (IMBY) this week;

On another note, some very springlike temperatures COULD be on the way next week.  Once we get the rain out the way on Sun/Mon/Tues, then with a bit of sunshine possible, it could feel quite warm really.

"Weakening" describes our snow chances through this whole cold spell. I would be surprised if we don't get a mild sector and end up with drizzle

[Shaftesburydelightski]

Cold and dry overnight, temperature -4.2c which could turn out to be the coldest of the winter, hope not!

[Bald Eagle]

Cant beat a Winter sunrise. Morning all!

[Azazel]

So the cold leaves with a whimper in much the same way heat seems to leave nowadays without a stormy breakdown. 
 

boring. 

[Dorsetbred]

Overcast start to the day as "Anthem of the Seas" is joined by "Jewel of the Seas" and the sole brave beach walker out with its human this morning...

[Frosty hollows]

Coldest night of the year so far at -6.2c. Lovely bright, crisp morning with a pretty ground frost 

[lettice]

Very slight frost here this morning.

A low of -1.7c at 2:45am
Now -0.2c, ENE wind moving more Easterly 8-10mph, 1024.5 hPa

[wiltshire weather]

Great to see some more have woken up to a covering this morning

There's nothing on the radar but after a sunny start and low of -5.9c overnight  it's clouded over and I have a few flakes drifting down.

So that makes falling snow 4 days in a row I think for me which I'm happy with even though we haven't had much more than a thick dusting on the ground.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Very slight dusting in Exeter at 6:30am for the second day in a row.  It was all gone by 9am yesterday.  Today it's mostly gone by 9am but there are still bits of it left particularly by the roadsides where it drifted, about 20% cover overall so not enough to qualify as a Met Office snow lying day (which requires >= 50% cover).  Rather feeble, but an advance on nothing, which at one time was looking like a significant possibility. 

[rug]

Really poor cold spell for here, frustrating what has actually been delivered in comparison to the potential that was on offer. Think it will be remembered as a cold but underwhelming UK spell of weather.

[jtay]

Can't beat some of the sunrises above, but it was nice down here all the same. Min -4C.

Off work next week, so rising temps and a bit of sunshine in the garden, would suit me just fine.

[ptow]

3 minutes ago, rug said:

Really poor cold spell for here, frustrating what has actually been delivered in comparison to the potential that was on offer. Think it will be remembered as a cold but underwhelming UK spell of weather.

Also, wasnt even that cold. -11 uppers lead to 2c maxes yesterday. What sort of 850's do we need to get these days. Although I know Monday was an ice day we were expecting 4/5. Reality so far - 1

[Blizzardof82]

January 1st remains my coldest night of the year with -5.8c, last night manged a low of -5.4, a disappointing cold spell for my neck of the woods with regards to snow but I prefer dry and cold to wet and average.

Edited February 11, 2021 by Blizzardof82
missing word

[Langford N.Somerset]

-6.2 in Langford last night.

-7.2 in Yatton on the Moors

[wiltshire weather]

I'm ever the eternal optimist when it comes to snow chances, but even I am now thinking that Saturday may well be our last shot at anything more than a dusting with the GFS//,  Icon and Arpege all having some snow a fair way across our region, although it may not actually reach me in the far north east!

Latest runs for 1300 Saturday:

GFS// 

Arpege: 

Icon: 

GEM gives Devon and Cornwall a decent snow event on Saturday but it doesn't make it across the whole region:

Worth a mention that the GEM actually gives us all a semi-decent snow to rain event on Sunday:

After that, a return to milder temperatures and spells of rain for a few days and then hopefully high pressure building back in from the east towards the end of the week settling it down. Still a lot of uncertainty in that and also if it happens, will it set up far enough north to start drawing in colder air again. Meto update suggests that it will.

The GEM(very mild) and ECM(colder) are good examples of the two ends of the scale when it comes to how that could work out.

So, onto the next cold chase on the models  

 

Edited February 11, 2021 by wiltshire weather

[Blizzardof82]

11 minutes ago, wiltshire weather said:

I'm ever the eternal optimist when it comes to snow chances, but even I am now thinking that Saturday may well be our last shot at anything more than a dusting with the GFS//,  Icon and Arpege all having some snow a fair way across our region, although it may not actually reach me in the far north east!

Latest runs for 1300 Saturday:

GFS// 

Arpege: 

Icon: 

GEM gives Devon and Cornwall a decent snow event on Saturday but it doesn't make it across the whole region:

Worth a mention that the GEM actually gives us all a semi-decent snow to rain event on Sunday:

After that, a return to milder temperatures and spells of rain for a few days and then hopefully high pressure building back in from the east towards the end of the week settling it down. Still a lot of uncertainty in that and also if it happens, will it set up far enough north to start drawing in colder air again. Meto update suggests that it will.

The GEM(very mild) and ECM(colder) are good examples of the two ends of the scale when it comes to how that could work out.

So, onto the next cold chase on the models  

 

Great post thank you, I am already on the next chase.

[festivalking]

Weather warning for cornwall updated up to 5cm possible on bodmin moor tonight into tomorrow. 

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

Unbelievably, we didn’t even get a frost last night, let alone any snow! 

[Dorsetbred]

The wind direction has slowly shifted to SE now, bringing the breeze in from the sea direction, moving the temperatures upwards..(well a bit) 1.0°C ... I was asked why I was still wearing shorts in these temperatures, to which there was really no direct response

Edited February 11, 2021 by Dorsetbred

[Blizzardof82]

Latest METO warnings really do paint a bleak picture for areas away from Devon/Cornwall with regards to snow before mild returns.