South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 08 Feb 2021 Onward

[noggin]

I don't have the strength to do any more straw clutching. What a complete and utter load of bilge this has been for many of us. Sorry to be such an old misery guts.

[MidnightSnow]

Little snippet for Saturday from the recent MetO 10 day trend video. Snow and Freezing rain for the NE of the region.

[AWD]

2 minutes ago, MidnightSnow said:

Little snippet for Saturday from the recent MetO 10 day trend video. Snow and Freezing rain for the NE of the region.

That image is literally an exact copy of the 03z UKV extended;

Here's hoping the 15z UKV (when it comes out later) improves.

[noggin]

Freezing sodding rain? That just about sums it up........

[noggin]

Sorry to be grumpy, but next door's dog won't shut up yapping and they seem to be banging doors for a past time at the moment. I won't post any more until my mood has improved. Don't want to infest the thread with misery! Good luck everyone, anyway! ❄❄❄❄❄❄❄

[AWD]

1 minute ago, noggin said:

Sorry to be grumpy, but next door's dog won't shut up yapping and they seem to be banging doors for a past time at the moment. I won't post any more until my mood has improved. Don't want to infest the thread with misery! Good luck everyone, anyway! ❄❄❄❄❄❄❄

Grumpy posts are allowed too. 

To be fair, come Saturday evening, there is every chance many of us will be in the same mood you are now.

You never know though, the ICON might yet rule and the unexpected might yet happen.

If only we didn't have to always chase scraps every winter hey?! 

[kumquat]

12Z GFS Parallel similar to Icon for Saturday:

[khodds]

I have given up all hope of ever seeing a decent snowfall again. There. I said it.

[Calneee]

Been a beautiful day to be driving around north wilts today (for my job) & was able to make a quick stop off at Bowden Hill, Lacock for lunch. You must be able to see 50+ miles W/SW from up there. I did wonder if any of you were getting any little flurries from these lovelies

[Shaftesburydelightski]

Still snow left on the ground and current temperature -0.7c.

I haven't any technical knowledge except having lived through some great cold spells from the 70's on cold highs are very difficult to budge and often come back with a vengeance after relaxing for a short period of time. The continent is very cold and likely to stay like this for sometime and even a slack southeasterly will be cold.

I feel we are not done yet with the cold but will have to go through a short period of average temperatures first.

[Mapantz]

A high of 3.4°C here. Mostly cloudy with a few sunny spells.

[saintkip]

21 minutes ago, kumquat said:

12Z GFS Parallel similar to Icon for Saturday:

Get east you filthy animal

[*Stormforce~beka*]

52 minutes ago, noggin said:

I don't have the strength to do any more straw clutching. What a complete and utter load of bilge this has been for many of us. Sorry to be such an old misery guts.

I'm with you. Hubby said have you seen outside and I looked and it was the lightest fewest flakes of snow in the world in full sun shine. Not worth looking at.

[chris55]

3 hours ago, CentralSouthernSnow said:

I wasn’t aiming it at you, I mean in general, everyone goes crazy over them and think that what MO say must be right. Everyday there 6-30 day forecast changes. For them being such professionals they never stick to an output it’s always wishy washy, When in all honesty they have just as much of a clue than we do when model viewing! 

Forecasting beyond day 5 is always going to be tricky. The atmosphere is ever moving, ever changing, so forecasts beyond this timeframe will ebb and flow based on the newest data.

The Met office have a workforce of experienced and trained staff to interpret the data and they also have access to the best computer models over and above what we get to see. So although they may not be correct all the time using the Met Forecast is absolutely worthwhile. Not sure if people get 'excited' but definitely pay attention to the forecasts.

Netweather members can certainly add a slightly more open view on things as we are not accountable to the nation, an I think that's an important point.

 

 

[chris55]

 

54 minutes ago, kumquat said:

12Z GFS Parallel similar to Icon for Saturday:

Haven't ventured into the Mod thread yet this eve or checked any runs except the GFS Para.....and it looks a peach up 200h, repeated fronts turning to snow then this at 192.....Now ill go and check the GFS and UKMO to be brought back down to earth lol...

Edited February 10, 2021 by chris55

[MP-R]

It's gonna be a chilly one tonight. Below freezing again now with a DP of -8C. Decent.

[wiltshire weather]

5 minutes ago, chris55 said:

 

Haven't ventured into the Mod thread yet this eve or checked any runs except the GFS Para.....and it looks a peach up 200h, repeated fronts turning to snow then this at 180.....Now ill go and check the GFS and UKMO to be brought back down to earth lol...

That's an insane GFS // run! Just goes to show what could happen if the Scandi high never loses it's grip. 

Entirely within the realms of possibility but so far of course out on its own! 

I think this is the one to pray to the weather gods for to come true  

 

[AWD]

Latest UKMO Fax for midday Saturday;

Always good to look at these as they have human input in them.

We have two occluded fronts heading in from the WSW.  Notice in front of the first one the upper air flow is still coming off the continent (follow the isobars back).  France/Germany are especially cold at the moment, this helps keep the air in front of the occlusion cold, with very low dew points especially.

The first occlusion is the one that has "some potential" to deliver snowfall to northern parts of our region.  The reason we lose the colder air quite quickly though is the fact that another occlusion follows on closely behind, therefore a "double whammy" on the cold block.

Ideally we would like to see the front tilt SW/NE more, as this would help keep the cold SE air flow off the continent in place longer.  As it is, the upper air flow turns southerly and mixes out the upper cold, this then slowly filtering down to the surface.

The fronts, on the fax above, do stretch down into northernmost France though, so it's not out of the question that the above FAX would produce something similar to the 12z Arpege.  PPN normally stays on the front side of marked occlusions.  However, I'm not 100% confident when trying to place PPN onto heights/pressure charts.

To add, 12z EC Det very similar to it's 0z output, and matches the Meto early yellow advisory for Saturday well.  Most snow goes NE from Wales, perhaps scraping north Glos.  Majority of region dry.

Edited February 10, 2021 by AWD

[chris55]

Looking at both the UKMO 144 and GFS 144 you can see a lot of interest synoptically, with a return to a colder flow brewing.... I know its like wading through quicksand, but we do need the cold air in place for ANY chance of snow, so tonights runs not looking top bad at all IMO up to day 6 (which in the current set, up is FI anyway)

UKMO and GFS at 144.

 

[wiltshire weather]

No big snow event on the ECM, this is the best it has to offer which comes in on Saturday.

The writing is def on the wall for an end to the cold spell, but whether it goes out with a bang or a whimper is still not completely set in stone yet.

I'm still not convinced of the model output for next week either so am sitting firmly on the fence  (sorry, but is the only emoji I could find for 'fence'!)

Edited February 10, 2021 by wiltshire weather

[snowysouth]

3 minutes ago, chris55 said:

Looking at both the UKMO 144 and GFS 144 you can see a lot of interest synoptically, with a return to a colder flow brewing.... I know its like wading through quicksand, but we do need the cold air in place for ANY chance of snow, so tonights runs not looking top bad at all IMO up to day 6 (which in the current set, up is FI anyway)

UKMO and GFS at 144.

 

I've just had a look at the local ens. That must have been a colder run? 

[Andy Bown]

1 hour ago, noggin said:

I don't have the strength to do any more straw clutching. What a complete and utter load of bilge this has been for many of us. Sorry to be such an old misery guts.

Tonight could be the coldest temperature for 10 to 11 years. That would make it a very notable spell.

Snow has fallen on 10 days out of 41 in Warminster so far this year. Admittedly ‘only’ flurries on 7 of those but that’s making this a proper winter.

[Mapantz]

BBC have it down for -6°C and heavy snow tonight. Words honestly fail me! 

Last time they had -6°C it got to -2°C.

[AWD]

Latest 15z UKV extended is nothing to write home about.  Pretty similar to it's 03z output really (without looking at it in too refine detail).  Shows a fragmented band of snow crossing the region during Saturday, nothing meaningful though;

A wintry day there, light on/off snow for northern and eastern areas but nothing meaningful to write home about.

Essentially, to summarise where we are now.

ICON & Arpege offer a modest snowfall across most of the West Country and are the current best outcomes with regards to snowfall.

UKV & GFS offer a fragmented snow band with mostly light on/off snow as the front weakens substantially as it crosses the region.

EC & Nwx MR model offer a mainly dry day on Saturday with any PPN fragmenting way out west.

Just watched Ian's points West forecast, essentially a lot of uncertainty which he understandably didn't want to go into too much.  

We aren't really any better in the know as we were yesterday.  Only bonus after today is that it isn't just the ICON now but the ICON & Arpege.  Confidence of a decent snowfall remains at critically, stupidly low. 

[Wiltshireweatherwatcher]

8 minutes ago, AWD said:

Latest 15z UKV extended is nothing to write home about.  Pretty similar to it's 03z output really (without looking at it in too refine detail).  Shows a fragmented band of snow crossing the region during Saturday, nothing meaningful though;

A wintry day there, light on/off snow for northern and eastern areas but nothing meaningful to write home about.

Essentially, to summarise where we are now.

ICON & Arpege offer a modest snowfall across most of the West Country and are the current best outcomes with regards to snowfall.

UKV & GFS offer a fragmented snow band with mostly light on/off snow as the front weakens substantially as it crosses the region.

EC & Nwx MR model offer a mainly dry day on Saturday with any PPN fragmenting way out west.

Just watched Ian's points West forecast, essentially a lot of uncertainty which he understandably didn't want to go into too much.  

We aren't really any better in the know as we were yesterday.  Only bonus after today is that it isn't just the ICON now but the ICON & Arpege.  Confidence of a decent snowfall remains at critically, stupidly low. 

You can certainly see why there would be no need for a yellow warning for Saturday further south than Gloucestershire based on the 15z UKV. Snow yes, but not a lot.