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South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 08 Feb 2021 Onward


Mapantz

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Posted
  • Location: Home: Bournemouth (Iford) Work: Eastleigh
  • Location: Home: Bournemouth (Iford) Work: Eastleigh
1 hour ago, festivalking said:

Bless the ICON - its only big win i can think of is that it led the way for the BFTE in 2018. Others soon got on board but the seed was planted within that model. Interesting though that MO do take ICON seriously and is fed into like the other models into their output.

A bit anecdotal, but it also did brilliantly (much better than all the other models) with a storm in September a few years back. I remember because I was running a fishing event that weekend so paid particular attention. The ICON got the wind direction (NNW) and precipitation timings nailed before the others. 
(The day was a write off fishing wise ).

with no real evidence to back it up apart from that METO update, I have a gut feeling that this won’t be the only significant cold spell before the end of March. It just feels primed ?‍♂️ 

 

Edited by Frank Trough
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Posted
  • Location: Gosport
  • Location: Gosport

A high of 3.7c at 2:30 today.
Temp has started to fall and is now 3.0c
NE wind has stayed much lighter today at 6-8mph

We have had the occasional very light snow flurry this afternoon and its currently snowing very lightly.

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Posted
  • Location: Pucklechurch near Bristol 113m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers and cold winters with snow.
  • Location: Pucklechurch near Bristol 113m ASL

Just read the BBC month ahead and they are still bullish about cold blocked pattern late February into March with milder conditions next week.

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Posted
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters, warm springs, hot summers, warm then stormy autumn
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl

Reached 2.5°C, currently 1.7°C

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Posted
  • Location: Snow Starved Southampton
  • Location: Snow Starved Southampton

There were a line of showers geared for Southampton not so long ago, typically they petered out and shifted south. Although stop the press, I think I saw a flake in the wind! That pretty much summed up this 'beast' in these parts. More like a kitten.

Overall another incredibly cold day. Nice bursts of sunshine as well. 

Still hoping for some snow at the weekend, but the holy grail for us South coasters is a channel low - who knows, we may get lucky over the coming weeks.

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Posted
  • Location: martock,somerset where some tractors are
  • Location: martock,somerset where some tractors are

So what is the verdict are we going to get a last haarraahh before the onset of milder for a bit. Will we see a half decent snow event before it turns milder. Some say yes alot say no so place your bets

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

12z ICON keeps the dream alive for Saturday (away from far south western parts).  It carries on its consistency and delivers snowfall for much of the inland parts of the region throughout Saturday;

iconeu_uk1-42-69-0.thumb.png.9a2c045ba3077baa6478264285aa18c6.png

iconeu_uk1-42-71-0.thumb.png.e732ac8cd69a4527e71018f040bc91e8.png

iconeu_uk1-42-72-0.thumb.png.74b55813e15d741b3bd9d531282a4dbe.png

iconeu_uk1-42-74-0.thumb.png.7f77f28cceb0137de560ce6fb5914414.png

The above being snapshot of events.  Obviously it shows/forecasts snow at the time in-between all the charts shown above too.

For Cornwall, Saturday is looking crap.  However, the model does continue to show some light snow for you overnight Thursday night into Friday;

iconeu_uk1-42-30-0.thumb.png.faefc6a2d8f307979385ce3da6316abd.png

The mighty ICON keeps that feeble carrot dangled in front of us a while longer yet.  Everything is against it, it's a rank outsider, but it is remarkably consistent (broad brush).

Edited by AWD
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Posted
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos

12Z GFS Sceuro Block looks 5mb weaker than 6Z at T+96, but the increased heights pushing towards Greenland earlier, so swings and roundabouts.

spacer.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Yate, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Harsh Frosts & Heavy Snow
  • Location: Yate, Bristol

12zover.jpg

Edit: AWD beat me to it. Still looking good from the ICON

Edited by MidnightSnow
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Posted
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters, warm springs, hot summers, warm then stormy autumn
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl

Just nipping out and whilst it’s sunny there’s a few flurries in the air. 

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Posted
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
1 minute ago, MidnightSnow said:

12zover.jpg

Edit: AWD beat me to it. Still looking good from the ICON

Please let it be so 

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Posted
  • Location: Sunny Weymouth
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winter, hot summer
  • Location: Sunny Weymouth
2 minutes ago, AWD said:

12z ICON keeps the dream alive for Saturday (away from far south western parts).  It carries on its consistency and delivered snowfall for much of the inland parts of the region throughout Saturday;

iconeu_uk1-42-69-0.thumb.png.9a2c045ba3077baa6478264285aa18c6.png

iconeu_uk1-42-71-0.thumb.png.e732ac8cd69a4527e71018f040bc91e8.png

iconeu_uk1-42-72-0.thumb.png.74b55813e15d741b3bd9d531282a4dbe.png

iconeu_uk1-42-74-0.thumb.png.7f77f28cceb0137de560ce6fb5914414.png

The above being snapshot of events.  Obviously it shows/forecasts snow at the time in-between all the charts shown above too.

For Cornwall, Saturday is looking crap.  However, the model does continue to show some light snow for you overnight Thursday night into Friday;

iconeu_uk1-42-30-0.thumb.png.faefc6a2d8f307979385ce3da6316abd.png

The mighty ICON keeps that feeble carrot dangled in front of us a while longer yet.  Everything is against it, it's a rank outsider, but it is remarkably consistent (broad brush).

As I said the other day this looks very similar to feb 96 setup

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Posted
  • Location: Marlborough, North East Wiltshire 143M/469ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snow in the winter, warm and dry in the summer !
  • Location: Marlborough, North East Wiltshire 143M/469ft ASL
10 minutes ago, MidnightSnow said:

12zover.jpg

Edit: AWD beat me to it. Still looking good from the ICON

Will be absolutely fantastic to get that but just one day to enjoy it as by Sunday we have this:

image.thumb.png.45d767687e0ceca00552b257ee7a033a.png

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
Just now, wiltshire weather said:

Will be absolutely fantastic to get that but just one day to enjoy it as by Sunday we have this:

image.thumb.png.45d767687e0ceca00552b257ee7a033a.png

Yes, for balance, any accumulations would have completely gone by Sunday on the ICON;

iconeu_uk1-42-90-0.thumb.png.3d5563de29b8abf0a9ab0954cca4c167.png

However, with the way this week as gone for many of us, I'm sure we will take 1 day of snowfall should the ICON model verify.  It's about as good as we can hope for anyway, and even this is a big "hope for".

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

Wait, we have some semi-support for the ICON now.  The French Arpege model as swung quite a bit towards it.  The 12z run below;

arpegeuk-42-70-0.thumb.png.aab0cce5019f5e727956fab377c24a06.png

arpegeuk-42-72-0.thumb.png.00bd4ce67dea97491d88a22aac7f8c8d.png

arpegeuk-42-74-0.thumb.png.56dcd79c2ca7cbf698ebe63d441e8c4f.png

arpegeuk-42-76-0.thumb.png.987f62fe62b59a01a0f0c8472c05a5c8.png

It's not quite as good as the ICON, in that it doesn't get the front quite as far east, nor is the PPN intensity as heavy as shown on the ICON, BUT compared to its 0z run, the best 0z chart is shown below;

arpegeuk-42-84-0.thumb.png.29b5485e76ca67d0a986907ebd4d007d.png

That's a pretty big swing to the ICON output.  Forget localised detail for now and just look at the difference between the 0z & 12z Arpege.  Still need improvements from the Arpege, but it's a big step in the right direction.  Could the mighty ICON really be onto something? 

Edited by AWD
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Posted
  • Location: Chipping Sodbury
  • Location: Chipping Sodbury
37 minutes ago, MidnightSnow said:

12zover.jpg

Edit: AWD beat me to it. Still looking good from the ICON

I just can’t see it remotely being like this. It’s absolutely on its jack Jones with this

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Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
15 minutes ago, AWD said:

Wait, we have some semi-support for the ICON now.  The French Arpege model as swung quite a bit towards it.  The 12z run below;

arpegeuk-42-70-0.thumb.png.aab0cce5019f5e727956fab377c24a06.png

arpegeuk-42-72-0.thumb.png.00bd4ce67dea97491d88a22aac7f8c8d.png

arpegeuk-42-74-0.thumb.png.56dcd79c2ca7cbf698ebe63d441e8c4f.png

arpegeuk-42-76-0.thumb.png.987f62fe62b59a01a0f0c8472c05a5c8.png

It's not quite as good as the ICON, in that it doesn't get the front quite as far east, nor is the PPN intensity as heavy as shown on the ICON, BUT compared to its 0z run, the best 0z chart is shown below;

arpegeuk-42-84-0.thumb.png.29b5485e76ca67d0a986907ebd4d007d.png

That's a pretty big swing to the ICON output.  Forget localised detail for now and just look at the difference between the 0z & 12z Arpege.  Still need improvements from the Arpege, but it's a big step in the right direction.  Could the mighty ICON really be onto something? 

Just seen met office 10 day trend it doesnt look anytyhing like this but next week certainly looks wet and mild.

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
3 minutes ago, Nights King said:

Just seen met office 10 day trend it doesnt look anytyhing like this but next week certainly looks wet and mild.

Meto (bearing in mind their forecasts will be based on 0z data for now), are following their own models, Iike UKV/UKMO etc, hence why I keep refering to the ICON as an outside chance etc.

However, they do stress uncertainty and Ian F did say they take the ICON seriously so, along with the fact the Arpege has now moved significantly towards it, it is a straw we can clutch for now.

Next week is pretty much nailed on to be milder now (how mild is still open to question).  Hopefully after Sunday, there shouldn't be too much rain around though. 

Edited by AWD
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Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
1 minute ago, AWD said:

Meto (bearing in mind their forecasts will be based on 0z data for now), are following their own models, Iike UKV/UKMO etc, hence why I keep refering to the ICON as an outside chance etc.

However, they do stress uncertainty and Ian F did say they take the ICON seriously so, along with the fact the Arpege has now moved significantly towards it, it is a straw we can clutch for now.

Can I share that one straw with you 

We need some damn luck even if it is only a one day wonder we damn deserve it.

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Posted
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
6 hours ago, Smartie said:

Strange ice formation on my bird bath this morning. 

IMG_20210210_092753.jpg

Excellent, an Ice Spike!

I remember a good few years back a long running discussion in the letters section of new scientist about the mechanics of how these form.

Ice-Spike.jpgIce_Spike2.JPG

Ice-Spike.jpg
EN.WIKIPEDIA.ORG

 

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