South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 08 Feb 2021 Onward

[gman88667733]

It is really nice when the sun comes out. As nice as snow is, I am looking forward to warm days, that's for sure!

[birdman]

1c here, suns shining and also a few snowflakes gently floating to the ground. Not often we have days like these! 

[Frosty_wsm]

Oh my, what is the gfs & para up to, could any warm up be short lived! All I say is if it's just going to end up being another showery easterly then it can bugger off, I'd rather have a warm up, on the other hand maybe I'm up for another cold & snow chase lol.

The met office update later will make interesting reading. 

[CentralSouthernSnow]

Icon still going for snow pushing inland on Saturday however Metoffice only have it for Devon etc hmmm! 

[AWD]

1 hour ago, Wiltshireweatherwatcher said:

Met clearly not going for the ICON solution for Saturday. Warning issued Gloucestershire northwards and Wales. Be surprised if that changed. Think that’s our chance of a snow event before it gets mild gone.

Too be honest mate, I'd be more surprised if it didn't change between now and Saturday, whether that be for the worse or for the better.  It's at the lowest confidence/certainty scale in the matrix box currently and Ian, this morning, stressed a lot of uncertainty regarding Saturday;

That being said, Meto seemingly going down the EC/UKMO route rather than other more favourable routes (IMBY specific) like the ICON, so clearly we are now in the "very outside" chance scenario rather than anything more favourable.

Warnings change and/or get refined though, like they have done many times in the past, so whilst confidence remains at critically, stupidly low, until the ICON and a couple of other models back down, the white flag won't be flown yet!

Edited February 10, 2021 by AWD

[Wiltshireweatherwatcher]

2 minutes ago, AWD said:

Too be honest mate, I'd be more surprised if it didn't change between now and Saturday, whether that be for the worse or for the better.  It's at the lowest confidence/certainty scale in the matrix box currently and Ian, this morning, stressed a lot of uncertainty regarding Saturday.

That being said, Meto seemingly going down the EC/UKMO route rather than other more favourable routes (IMBY specific) like the ICON.

Warnings change and/or get refined though, like they have done many times in the past, so whilst confidence remains at critically, stupidly low, until the ICON and a couple of other models back down, the white flag won't be flown yet!

I agree with you AWD. To be honest, not long after posting that I thought ‘what I did I post that for’ when of course it will be changed/refined as we get closer to the time, especially a warning issued four days out. 

Await the next ICON run with interest! 

[Frosty_wsm]

Latest UWMET update extract below btw 

"By next weekend colder and drier conditions may gradually become established once again"

"Into late February there is a signal for higher than average pressure to expand westwards leading to an increased chance of snow showers redeveloping in the east, for conditions in the north to become generally quite settled and for unsettled weather in the south, with disruptive snow possible."

Copied from the mod thread. 

[CentralSouthernSnow]

I don’t know why everyone rates the metoffice so much. They change there forecast every single day? Last week they were saying very blocked feb and March. Now it’s the complete opposite. You guys put way too much faith into these people. 

[festivalking]

Not to sure on tomorrows snow threat in the south west. My MO app (i know not the best place to search) has updated to show dry and cold all day Thursday and Friday! 

 

[AWD]

1 minute ago, Smartie said:

Latest UWMET update extract below btw 

"By next weekend colder and drier conditions may gradually become established once again"

"Into late February there is a signal for higher than average pressure to expand westwards leading to an increased chance of snow showers redeveloping in the east, for conditions in the north to become generally quite settled and for unsettled weather in the south, with disruptive snow possible."

Copied from the mod thread. 

Yeah, just read that myself.  They aren't giving it up are they.

Take it with a very very big pinch of salt though.  Forecasting the weather for our tiny little island beyond a week out is very difficult to say the least.

I'll take more note of it once something comes within a 5 day timeframe (and it's not just being shown exclusively on the ICON). 

[festivalking]

1 minute ago, AWD said:

Yeah, just read that myself.  They aren't giving it up are they.

Take it with a very very big pinch of salt though.  Forecasting the weather for our tiny little island beyond a week out is very difficult to say the least.

I'll take more note of it once something comes within a 5 day timeframe (and it's not just being shown exclusively on the ICON). 

Bless the ICON - its only big win i can think of is that it led the way for the BFTE in 2018. Others soon got on board but the seed was planted within that model. Interesting though that MO do take ICON seriously and is fed into like the other models into their output.

[CheesepuffScott]

Cloudier than earlier but still plenty of sunny spells. Up to 2.5°C

[Frosty_wsm]

2 minutes ago, CentralSouthernSnow said:

I don’t know why everyone rates the metoffice so much. They change there forecast every single day? Last week they were saying very blocked feb and March. Now it’s the complete opposite. You guys put way too much faith into these people. 

Why don't you chill out lol, just because I posted that doesn't mean I have any faith in that outcome happening but it sure is interesting and it is a fact that weather models do tend to want to blast away deep cold way too easily. 

[wiltshire weather]

Full Meto update (interestingly still timestamped 0400 this morning!): 

Monday 15 Feb - Wednesday 24 Feb

Rather cloudy with rain at times into Monday with any snow likely being restricted to the high grounds of Scotland, though there is signal for some widespread snow to low levels plausible. Temperatures remain split, with the northeast seeing around average while feeling milder in the south and west. However, the boundary between these two layers moves slightly north - giving some milder and wetter conditions into central and western areas. Through the rest of next week, conditions look likely to turn milder and wetter than seen recently. The heaviest and most frequent spells of rain and showers are likely in the west, with conditions drier and brighter at times in the east. By next weekend colder and drier conditions may gradually become established once again.

Updated: 04:00 (UTC) on Wed 10 Feb 2021

Wednesday 24 Feb - Wednesday 10 Mar

Into late February there is a signal for higher than average pressure to expand westwards leading to an increased chance of snow showers redeveloping in the east, for conditions in the north to become generally quite settled and for unsettled weather in the south, with disruptive snow possible. A similar picture continues into March, though milder conditions in the west look more likely to spread northwards.

Updated: 04:00 (UTC) on Wed 10 Feb 2021

[CentralSouthernSnow]

4 minutes ago, Smartie said:

Why don't you chill out lol, just because I posted that doesn't mean I have any faith in that outcome happening but it sure is interesting and it is a fact that weather models do tend to want to blast away deep cold way too easily. 

I wasn’t aiming it at you, I mean in general, everyone goes crazy over them and think that what MO say must be right. Everyday there 6-30 day forecast changes. For them being such professionals they never stick to an output it’s always wishy washy, When in all honesty they have just as much of a clue than we do when model viewing! 

Edited February 10, 2021 by CentralSouthernSnow

[matt111]

Sunny spells for a lot of the day so far but more in the way of cloud now. Not as breezy as yesterday. 1.9°C

Edited February 10, 2021 by matt111

[MidnightSnow]

14 minutes ago, CentralSouthernSnow said:

I don’t know why everyone rates the metoffice so much. They change there forecast every single day? Last week they were saying very blocked feb and March. Now it’s the complete opposite. You guys put way too much faith into these people. 

Fully understand that the MetO can get it wrong, but they're still the best we've got. If we can't trust the pro's, then we certainly shouldn't trust anybody else.

[MP-R]

After a sunny morning, it’s clouded over a lot and the snow flurries have returned. Temperature also dropping again.

[AWD]

Been a day of sunny spells and light snow flurries, often at the same time.

The smallest patch of cloud producing some modest, light snow flurries.

[dec10snow]

21 minutes ago, CentralSouthernSnow said:

I don’t know why everyone rates the metoffice so much. They change there forecast every single day? Last week they were saying very blocked feb and March. Now it’s the complete opposite. You guys put way too much faith into these people. 

With respect, they are only reacting to the models. If they all agree on cold one day and flip mild the next, who are they to be able to predict that? They have to use what’s in front of them and although they have much more resource than we do, they’re still guided by the models.

Our little place is just very fickle for forecasting.

[snowponies]

19 minutes ago, festivalking said:

Not to sure on tomorrows snow threat in the south west. My MO app (i know not the best place to search) has updated to show dry and cold all day Thursday and Friday! 

 

You never know, was surprised to see it snowing when I set off for work at 6 this morning and by the time I got to Okehampton it was coming down quite hard! When I got to my first yard I checked the MO forecast and it still said dry. Kept snowing for a few hours too even when there was nothing on the radar. 

I have to admit I'm thoroughly enjoying the dry! For the first time in months I'm not covered head to toe in mud and changing rugs off horses is soooo much easier when they aren't wet and heavy! Was hoping to take the horse out in the few cms we got but there were a few scary drivers so sadly had to pass

[jtay]

Is this it?

Is this winter coming?

[Nights King]

Nothing here today but I've had no snow melting at all this cold spell, quite impressive really. See picture below for current conditions.. 

 

 

[wiltshire weather]

Some showers beginning to pep up a bit to the NW of Southampton and currently heading in that direction:

According to this mornings Arpege this sinks south this afternoon and joins the disturbance due to swing up into Devon/Cornwall overnight which has resulted in the yellow weather warning. It's also showing some mixed snow/sleet from the front coming in to the SW in the afternoon in the same areas:

[slb97]

We have a little snow shower right now, still small flakes but wasn’t expecting anything today so a nice little surprise!