Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 08 Feb 2021 Onward


Mapantz

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: NE Hampshire, England, United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: snow, cold, ice, frost, thundersnow,
  • Location: NE Hampshire, England, United Kingdom
1 minute ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Weak streamer forming just below the line of the M4

Convergence zone?

I was looking at that, M3 streamer?

I don't wanna get my hopes up though.........

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Totton/Netley Marsh....edge of new forest.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms /Snow
  • Location: Totton/Netley Marsh....edge of new forest.
20 minutes ago, camturbo said:

Let's hope your gut feeling is correct. There seems so much uncertainty dont think anyone knows,blimey even the weather dont know what is want to do,cloudy bit of sun bit of dandruff etc. All we want is snow and a decent amount surely not to much to ask.

Thanks for reply........yes one decent snowfall is all we all want eh ❄❄

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Somerset
  • Location: Somerset
2 minutes ago, snowysouth said:

The ens for my area have been pretty accurate. Virtually no ppn and that rise in temps has been modelled for days

I think a lot of people have been ‘snow blind’ this week!  The change has been modelled well now for several days, but people see what they want to I guess. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Snow Starved Southampton
  • Location: Snow Starved Southampton

It would feel such a waste to have to endure such cold air but actually get nothing from it bar some flakes floating around in the sky. No frost, no ice, no laying snow (in this part anyway)

I'm still holding out hope for a battleground scenario, but even that looks slim for most of us now. Feels like we will just transition silently into milder air and bring in the inventible rain, which obviously won't miss us!

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
3 minutes ago, JimBob said:

I think a lot of people have been ‘snow blind’ this week!  The change has been modelled well now for several days, but people see what they want to I guess. 

It's been fun though.  Like I said earlier, the chase (no matter how it ends up) has been a welcome distraction from all the crap going on in the world right now.

We are used to disappointment in this region anyway, with regards to wintry weather.  That won't stop us doing it all again next time still though.

  • Like 9
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Emsworth, Hampshire
  • Location: Emsworth, Hampshire
36 minutes ago, Blizzardof82 said:

Some really low dew points being forecast for Saturday as wind veers SSE, a question for the more knowledgeable in here, if the winds veer South would we not pick up streamers off the English Channel?

Has happened, I remember in 2013 there was a brief window of Southerly winds that brought showers in off The Channel. However, with Southerlies, normally comes mildier air.

Worth noting that Northern France will have some decent snow cover from that band over there at the moment. Along with the overall cold continent, the SE'ly winds will be bitter this weekend. 

Edited by Dean E
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
33 minutes ago, Glenosnow said:

Evening all,after an overnight low of -1.5°C temp climbed to 2.3°C at around 3pm and now currently back down to -0.9°C.......had a nice little dusting this morning to add to the other paltry efforts so far this winter

Quick question to the more knowledgeable peeps on here.

Looking at the outlook and possible breakdown at some point.....does anyone think that this breakdown will get pushed back further and further?........... as in the past I've seen cold spells last longer as it takes the Atlantic a few bites of the cherry to make proper inroads....or does anyone think the mild air will win out more quickly?

My gut feeling is that cold air is going to hold on.

Looking further out the suggestion is that the inbound later in the week doesn't make massive inroads, but it possibly sufficient to cut a chink in the cold armour, as following that the next inbound front does  make it across in to the Uk, and more follow next week. 

Let's see if your gut is right..

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Totton/Netley Marsh....edge of new forest.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms /Snow
  • Location: Totton/Netley Marsh....edge of new forest.
Just now, Dorsetbred said:

Looking further out the suggestion is that the inbound later in the week doesn't make massive inroads, but it possibly sufficient to cut a chink in the cold armour, as following that the next inbound front does  make it across in to the Uk, and more follow next week. 

Let's see if your gut is right..

Thanks Dorsetbred,

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Downton, Wiltshire
  • Location: Downton, Wiltshire
16 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Weak streamer forming just below the line of the M4

Convergence zone?

As per the Arome. Posted a couple of pages back. Winds diverge before midnight, but that's a few hours away yet. 

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
Just now, jtay said:

As per the Arome. Posted a couple of pages back. Winds diverge before midnight, but that's a few hours away yet. 

Yeah think I saw that post

literally like they saw the future

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

Latest 15z UKV extended shows a very slow moving weather front over the West Country on Saturday;

viewimage.thumb.png.9f50546d882128866c2d3975c2d76907.png

884781232_viewimage(1).thumb.png.094852ea09e5e4343b4157f8494c4ba1.png

192619638_viewimage(2).thumb.png.86ae6c9b539d748d300a53e717a55b91.png

954229633_viewimage(3).thumb.png.f3a187393b0da03367625989d905a33c.png

A good few hours of snowfall for those in the northern and eastern parts of the region before turning to rain for most of us;

139053530_viewimage(4).thumb.png.8fbbff560a24afa905ed4735884c4b02.png

620171114_viewimage(5).thumb.png.faf17cfa8338899edf1174fd26aaf176.png

Albeit, there isn't much PPN left on it by the time we get to this point.  It's vastly different from the 03z extended run though so it's probably best to leave in the "maybe" pile again.

Either way, whilst slightly better than the 0z output, tonight's 12z output overall isn't particular enthusiastic about a decent snow event before less cold air arrives (which is inevitable now).  My confidence hasn't changed, and remains at critically, stupidly low.

Edited by AWD
  • Like 5
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Poole
  • Location: Poole
13 minutes ago, Dorsetbred said:

Looking further out the suggestion is that the inbound later in the week doesn't make massive inroads, but it possibly sufficient to cut a chink in the cold armour, as following that the next inbound front does  make it across in to the Uk, and more follow next week. 

Let's see if your gut is right..

I think it was 2013 when the cold air was simply washed away. The temp rise was rapid as was the thaw. I HATE battle grounds. We don't win here. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl

Evening all, just watched Fergie's forecast, his advice is take everything with a pinch of salt for the foreseeable. Might get milder at the weekend, might not, might snow, might not, currently no clear way forward.

Personally, I'd be surprised if the cold caves into the milder weather from the SW without putting up a bit of a fight. Deep cold is usually quite difficult to shift unless there's a large push from the Atlantic and what's currently seen as incoming from that direction isn't a big, strong low pressure system.

  • Like 6
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
7 minutes ago, jethro said:

Evening all, just watched Fergie's forecast, his advice is take everything with a pinch of salt for the foreseeable. Might get milder at the weekend, might not, might snow, might not, currently no clear way forward.

Personally, I'd be surprised if the cold caves into the milder weather from the SW without putting up a bit of a fight. Deep cold is usually quite difficult to shift unless there's a large push from the Atlantic and what's currently seen as incoming from that direction isn't a big, strong low pressure system.

True, it'll be interesting to see what this melee produces 

image.thumb.png.79100046b97290bb5c1863a9a7a8fd10.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: NE Hampshire, England, United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: snow, cold, ice, frost, thundersnow,
  • Location: NE Hampshire, England, United Kingdom

Anyone here based in Jersey?

That low in N France getting close to Jersey, maybe some snow?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

The fronts may not push far inland, but with a southerly draw from Monday, it guarantees double figures here. Cold might be hard to budge on a UK scale, but it always retreats from here. It did so extremely quickly during the 2018 cold spell, and every other in the last 20 years.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Langford
  • Location: Langford
27 minutes ago, jethro said:

Evening all, just watched Fergie's forecast, his advice is take everything with a pinch of salt for the foreseeable. Might get milder at the weekend, might not, might snow, might not, currently no clear way forward.

Personally, I'd be surprised if the cold caves into the milder weather from the SW without putting up a bit of a fight. Deep cold is usually quite difficult to shift unless there's a large push from the Atlantic and what's currently seen as incoming from that direction isn't a big, strong low pressure system.

Temperatures of 4.0 tomorrow in places, certainly no beast. A few days ago temperatures were forecast as 0 across the board at best for Wednesday.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

Undeniable agreement in 12z Ens for a return to nearer average conditions from Sunday onwards now, for my area at least, (May differ in timing for other areas).  These are for Bristol;

Screenshot_2021-02-09-19-44-09-04.thumb.jpg.f6abced274b1632d32672ef4b216c211.jpg

Good chance we will go out with a whimper according to the ens too, with only a few offering something wintry on Saturday, before milder air arrives.

That ICON run earlier seems a long long time ago now.  I think there is more chance of Trump being re-elected than that coming off.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny or cold and snowy. Nothing inbetween.
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton

Just been on my evening lockdown walk and can confirm it’s snizzling again

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16 Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 29 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Difficult travel conditions as the Easter break begins

    Low Nelson is throwing wind and rain at the UK before it impacts mainland Spain at Easter. Wild condtions in the English Channel, and more rain and lightning here on Thursday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...