South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 08 Feb 2021 Onward

[AWD]

So far, for the weekend, we have;

12z ICON - heavy snow for many away from the far south west.

12z GFS & 12z Arpege - some light snow for the far South West on Saturday, dry for areas further north and east until later on Sunday.  Remaining cold in these areas.  Delayed breakdown.

12z Nwx Model - Snow to rain event on Saturday, longer (snowfall) the further northeast in the region you are.

Some sort of improvement so far then, compared to the 0z output.  More importantly, a hell of a lot of uncertainty.

 

Edited February 9, 2021 by AWD

[Nights King]

2 minutes ago, AWD said:

12z ICON is a perfect BANK for many of us for Saturday.

Firstly, it continues the trend for light, fragmented snow over Devon on Thursday night;

Then look at this for Saturday;

Compared to ANY 0z output, that's a massive improvement for many of us.  Just a shame it's the ICON and not something more reliable.

That would be a dream liie outcome but much like yourself my initial optomism has melted away like the flurry we had yesterday.

Doesnt look great and I will kick myself for not being over 200m if we get a sleety mess again.

Tonight I will forget about weather and models and play age of empires and dream about my bitcoin. 

[khodds]

Maybe this is another turning point... let’s see what the 18z brings

[Nights King]

Just now, khodds said:

Maybe this is another turning point... let’s see what the 18z brings

The straw that I clutch onto is that cold air is never modelled well and tends to be tougher to move than models forecast so we may get upgrades closer to events but lets just see.

I shall put my hopium bong away for now. 

 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

30 minutes ago, Dorsetbred said:

Of course the upstream feed has now been chopped, so it's firing blanks, as the image below confirms

What a relief!! LOL!

[Dean E]

Didn't manage an ice day today, temperatures reached a dizzy high of 0.6°C. Awoke to a dusting of snow today, amazing to see it evaporate rather than melt. Wind suddenly strengthened around 2pm and changed to an Easterly, now feels bitter.

Currently -1.0°C, DP -5.3°C

Feels like -8.1°C.

Edited February 9, 2021 by Dean E

[wiltshire weather]

26 minutes ago, AWD said:

So far, for the weekend, we have;

12z ICON - heavy snow for many away from the far south west.

12z GFS & 12z Arpege - some light snow for the far South West on Saturday, dry for areas further north and east until later on Sunday.  Remaining cold in these areas.  Delayed breakdown.

12z Nwx Model - Snow to rain event on Saturday, longer (snowfall) the further northeast in the region you are.

Some sort of improvement so far then, compared to the 0z output.  More importantly, a hell of a lot of uncertainty.

 

It certainly doesn't look 'nailed on' for any outcome at the moment, and with the Meto update still maintaining the mostly cold outlook even after the dreadful stuff the 0z models churned out, there has to be hope that things may swing back to cold once again on the models! Certainly many in the mod thread this morning were expecting the Meto to drastically change their outlook, so the fact they haven't is very interesting.

It also looks like they're not following their own model output (the one we can see anyway).

It would certainly be great for all of us down here if the Icon has managed to put one over one the 'big guns' for this weekend  

Edited February 9, 2021 by wiltshire weather

[Crackerjack]

Meanwhile heaviest snow flurry of the present cold spell has left my patio furniture positively ’speckled’

[lettice]

Been a nice day with plenty of sunny spells.
Temp got to 1.2c at 2pm.
The sunshine on the greenhouse glass got the temp in there to 8c mid afternoon.
That overnight snow dusting on the glass may also have helped to warm it up.

Temp has been dropping since and is now 0.2c, the greenhouse temp was 2c.
The easterly wind 12-16mph, when outside makes it feel bitter today.

[kumquat]

8 minutes ago, Crackerjack said:

Meanwhile heaviest snow flurry of the present cold spell has left my patio furniture positively ’speckled’

Yeah, got exactly that on an upturned black plastic pond that we've yet to put in. It was thrilling!

[Dorset_mist]

I’ve watched this band move north from Biscay all afternoon, very slow moving, will it decay as it hits higher pressure, it’s now over the Cherbourg peninsula.

Edited February 9, 2021 by Dorset_mist
Typo

[Shaftesburydelightski]

Currently -1.4 and somehow got the car up the drive through the still remaining 2.5cm drifts!

Looking at European temps there is a lot of very cold air cl

[snowdog]

21 minutes ago, Dorset_mist said:

I’ve watched this band move north from Biscay all afternoon, very slow moving, will it decay as it hits higher pressure, it’s now over the Cherbourg peninsula.

You can be sure if that was a rain band it would be over us by now!

[Jayfromcardiff]

Why is it so hard to get a good snow event lol, hopefully the models change for the best.

[CentralSouthernSnow]

38 minutes ago, Dorset_mist said:

I’ve watched this band move north from Biscay all afternoon, very slow moving, will it decay as it hits higher pressure, it’s now over the Cherbourg peninsula.

Is it moving north do you think? 

[The Enforcer]

I am not surprised by the snow performance so far as this seems on a par with what easterlies delivered here in 2010 and 2018. The shower bands need to align themselves perpendicular to the isobars, which is what they do in almost every other type of precipitation situation. Unless some sort of organised front/trough/small low develops in the flow, we are highly unlikely to see any material accumulations.

The biggest disappointment has been the daytime maxima, both yesterday and today getting above 2C, when sub-zero was modelled.

I think the very least I would expect from this cold spell is for some significant falling and settling snow during the transition back to mild, even if it melts fairly soon afterwards. The 'breakdown' ought to have the ability to deliver a significant period of snow as from the modelling I have seen, the cold air only retreats slowly and continues to draw up surface cold from the continent as it does so, meaning that temperatures should only rise slowly.

Edited February 9, 2021 by The Enforcer
Re-ordering.

[Blizzardof82]

Some really low dew points being forecast for Saturday as wind veers SSE, a question for the more knowledgeable in here, if the winds veer South would we not pick up streamers off the English Channel?

[Glenosnow]

Evening all,after an overnight low of -1.5°C temp climbed to 2.3°C at around 3pm and now currently back down to -0.9°C.......had a nice little dusting this morning to add to the other paltry efforts so far this winter

Quick question to the more knowledgeable peeps on here.

Looking at the outlook and possible breakdown at some point.....does anyone think that this breakdown will get pushed back further and further?........... as in the past I've seen cold spells last longer as it takes the Atlantic a few bites of the cherry to make proper inroads....or does anyone think the mild air will win out more quickly?

My gut feeling is that cold air is going to hold on.

[camturbo]

8 minutes ago, Glenosnow said:

Evening all,after an overnight low of -1.5°C temp climbed to 2.3°C at around 3pm and now currently back down to -0.9°C.......had a nice little dusting this morning to add to the other paltry efforts so far this winter

Quick question to the more knowledgeable peeps on here.

Looking at the outlook and possible breakdown at some point.....does anyone think that this breakdown will get pushed back further and further?........... as in the past I've seen cold spells last longer as it takes the Atlantic a few bites of the cherry to make proper inroads....or does anyone think the mild air will win out more quickly?

My gut feeling is that cold air is going to hold on.

Let's hope your gut feeling is correct. There seems so much uncertainty dont think anyone knows,blimey even the weather dont know what is want to do,cloudy bit of sun bit of dandruff etc. All we want is snow and a decent amount surely not to much to ask.

[Blizzardof82]

This Evenings ECM looks rather underwhelming.

[AWD]

2 minutes ago, Blizzardof82 said:

This Evenings ECM looks rather underwhelming.

That's putting it kindly. 

[Mapantz]

The graph of inevitability Mr. Anderson

[Climate_Eyes]

2 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

The graph of inevitability Mr. Anderson

That's what The Oracle wants us to believe.

Or something.

Mind you, the brief spell of sunshine today was actually lovely, even as a die-hard cold lover, I'm almost ready for the inevitable.

 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Weak streamer forming just below the line of the M4

Convergence zone?

[Dorsetbred]

5 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

The graph of inevitability Mr. Anderson

And there it is SPRING...