South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 08 Feb 2021 Onward

[DanDorsetUK]

Think this has to go down as one of the biggest expectation fails ever this week in fact this whole winter so far since December!

Im not even finding it that cold out to be honest. Anything can happen though 5 days away! Heat, Cold, Storms, you name it! Patterns change so much in that short space of time anything after that needs to be kept at very low confidence with low expectations.

The moment i see 0z Runs showing something interesting roughly 5 days out i take more notice, as a web developer myself it is clear to see there is an algorithm being used on every model run.

A lesser impact algorithm for 0z to the greater risk on the 18z its clear to see its programmed that way. But you only really notice the algorithm after 5 days when it becomes FI.

The moment 0z looks good for cold is when to sit up and take more notice around the day 5 mark.

I might actually look more at the models this summer and see how it behaves, ive never really looked at 0z and compare 18z through summer months so it might be interesting to see how algorithms perform during Summer months.

Anyway 2 more weeks of Feb to go anything possible yet!

[Frosty hollows]

46 minutes ago, AWD said:

Now that's what I call a "snizzle machine";

Actual light snow here now.

Currently under that

[John88B]

6 minutes ago, MidnightSnow said:

The MetO didn't even mention Thursday / Friday in their afternoon forecast today. Don't know if that's because it's not 'Week Ahead' video or because the uncertainty is still too high. Looks like it could go either way.

Yep I've noticed before when there's a lot of uncertainty they tend to just not mention it or are very vague. I s'pose it just avoids adding to the confusion. 

[Blizzardof82]

I'm watching this blob now 

[Blizzardof82]

1 minute ago, John88B said:

Yep I've noticed before when there's a lot of uncertainty they tend to just not mention it or are very vague. I s'pose it just avoids adding to the confusion. 

I find when there is a lot of uncertainty the Pros go quite on Twitter also, you will notice less tweets from the likes of Ian and Liam Dutton etc, just something I've noticed over the years.

[John88B]

1 minute ago, Blizzardof82 said:

I find when there is a lot of uncertainty the Pros go quite on Twitter also, you will notice less tweets from the likes of Ian and Liam Dutton etc, just something I've noticed over the years.

Yep I suppose when you really haven't got a clue it's best to say nothing until things become a bit clearer.

[Jayfromcardiff]

You know things are bad when you're chasing a small blob of snow on a radar...

[kumquat]

1 minute ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

You know things are bad when you're chasing a small blob of snow on a radar...

There was more powder in my Pot Noodle than I've seen all year.

[MP-R]

Big bank of blue sky incoming. Looks like that's it on the flurry front for today.

[swebby]

4 hours ago, Snowboy111 said:

Praying the front over France heads north enough to hit us in Guernsey 

Looking at it now, you may just get lucky and catch the northern edge?.  If it clips you after sundown temps will have dropped even further.

Web cams in Roscoff are still of snow that is not settling, but a few miles along the coast at Plouescat it is settling very well on the beach right down to the waterline!

Webcam Plouescat : plage de Porsmeur | Office de Tourisme Roscoff

WWW.ROSCOFF-TOURISME.COM

---

Une webcam située sur la palge de Porsmeur à Plouescat

 

[Barney2201]

7 minutes ago, swebby said:

Looking at it now, you may just get lucky and catch the northern edge?.  If it clips you after sundown temps will have dropped even further.

Web cams in Roscoff are still of snow that is not settling, but a few miles along the coast at Plouescat it is settling very well on the beach right down to the waterline!

Webcam Plouescat : plage de Porsmeur | Office de Tourisme Roscoff

WWW.ROSCOFF-TOURISME.COM

---

Une webcam située sur la palge de Porsmeur à Plouescat

 

Looks like Guernsey might just be in the firing line...

The front seemed to start fizzling out but has now re-intensified, hence the snow on the beach in France 

[Snowboy111]

16 minutes ago, swebby said:

Looking at it now, you may just get lucky and catch the northern edge?.  If it clips you after sundown temps will have dropped even further.

Web cams in Roscoff are still of snow that is not settling, but a few miles along the coast at Plouescat it is settling very well on the beach right down to the waterline!

Webcam Plouescat : plage de Porsmeur | Office de Tourisme Roscoff

WWW.ROSCOFF-TOURISME.COM

---

Une webcam située sur la palge de Porsmeur à Plouescat

 

Defo gonna be a close call for us

[festivalking]

More teasing from the latest output from ICON 

[jtay]

16 minutes ago, Snowboy111 said:

Defo gonna be a close call for us

The Arome 12z is close but no cigar and has it all dodging you beautifully.

Further North it peps up our South Central streamer for this evening.

 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

1 hour ago, AWD said:

Now that's what I call a "snizzle machine";

Actual light snow here now.

*SNIGGER* ~ How Phallic!

[*Stormforce~beka*]

1 hour ago, jtay said:

Jesus... Cue beka.

You knew it!!! PAHAHAHAHAAA!!!! LOL. Gotta laugh in these times

[AWD]

Not the best start to the 12z modelling, with Netweathers medium range model pushing fronts significantly further east at the weekend compared to its earlier 0z run.  

Firstly, Devon in particular looks consistently good for some light snowfall overnight Thursday into Friday;

Then into Saturday, we have a more significant front pushing in from the west.  It's all rain for southern and western areas, but starts of as snow for areas further north.  The below chart being early Saturday morning;

It gradually turns to rain for many of us, from the SW though as the day progresses.  It's marginally better than earlier other 0z model output in that it is much slower in turning to rain, with northern and eastern most areas of the region seeing snow falling for much of Saturday.  The below chart is for late Saturday afternoon;

As you can see between the times of the two charts, it's a slow old process.  

A snow to rain event doesn't do much for me personally, so I'm hoping for further improvements from higher res modelling.  

Despite the recently updated Meto forecast for the weekend being rather positive for some of us, my confidence in anything significant for my area still remains critically, stupidly low.

I will add though, we are talking very small adjustments to distance/timing here, the sort that are well within the scope of alteration with an "event" still 4 days away.  The trend is still going the wrong way for us though.

 

Edited February 9, 2021 by AWD

[jtay]

1 minute ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

You knew it!!! PAHAHAHAHAAA!!!! LOL. Gotta laugh in these times

Too funny.

 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

1 hour ago, Frosty hollows said:

Currently under that

No wonder there's a smile on your face ...

 

[camturbo]

Wishful thinking but that girt lot just off the coast of France does appear to be intensifying and moving north is that supposed to be ours or will it fizzle out

[Dorsetbred]

8 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

You knew it!!! PAHAHAHAHAAA!!!! LOL. Gotta laugh in these times

Of course the upstream feed has now been chopped, so it's firing blanks, as the image below confirms

[Dorsetbred]

The lofty high of 0.9°C at: 14:02, but now as the sun sinks slowly behind the cloud it's falling fairly quickly, currently 0.2°C (32.4°F), Apparent temp -3.8°C...

[AWD]

Both the 12z GFS and more especially, the 12z Arpege model go the other way and don't bring Saturdays front into the UK very much at all.  I won't post the PPN charts simply because there isn't much to post for Saturday and most of Sunday, but below is the 2m temps being modelled by the Arpege model;

Both the GFS and Arpege delay any breakdown (except for southern and western most areas) to Sunday now, another dry and cold day forecast by these on Saturday for most with no frontal activity until late Sunday.

So we are still, so far, left clueless! 

[matt111]

The suns come out a bit more this afternoon but when it came out the temperature dropped back below freezing. -0.1°C

[AWD]

12z ICON is a perfect BANK for many of us for Saturday.

Firstly, it continues the trend for light, fragmented snow over Devon on Thursday night;

Then look at this for Saturday;

Compared to ANY 0z output, that's a massive improvement for many of us.  Just a shame it's the ICON and not something more reliable.