South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 08 Feb 2021 Onward

[festivalking]

7 minutes ago, Snowboy111 said:

Praying the front over France heads north enough to hit us in Guernsey 

That blighter for a couple of runs was all over the south west. Good luck you get some!

[offerman]

Eased off here but still few flakes coming down .

looks to be a different story over Cleyhill Warminster and Longleat

really heavy over there. 

[Frosty_wsm]

Weather forecast on BBC news 24 @11am still going for the cold winning out, would they not be using the latest data by now, or is meteogroup seeing something the models we get to look at aren't.

Probably change at some point today, or will it

[Azazel]

on and off dandruff all morning from the thames streamer. Never heavy enough to give anything more than a slight dusting though.

[offerman]

12 minutes ago, offerman said:

Eased off here but still few flakes coming down .

looks to be a different story over Cleyhill Warminster and Longleat

really heavy over there. 

Even more now over there . 

[Wilxy]

The ensembles have not changed much for next week, but the high res has shifted to the less cold side of them overnight, this is for my location but the theme will be the same for are region.

[Andy Bown]

14 minutes ago, offerman said:

Eased off here but still few flakes coming down .

looks to be a different story over Cleyhill Warminster and Longleat

really heavy over there. 

Heavy is overstating it, it’s the equivalent of drizzle to light rain. The bleakness is due to the cloud base having lowered.

[offerman]

7 minutes ago, Andy Bown said:

Heavy is overstating it, it’s the equivalent of drizzle to light rain. The bleakness is due to the cloud base having lowered.

Cheers Andy for clarifying that .

[SNOW CRYSTAL]

Rubbish photo but I guess even the bigger birds get hungry in the cold. Still a few snow grains blowing around here 

[offerman]

Becoming slightly heavier here now . small flakes , as is often the nature with powder snow . 

 

 

[khodds]

Snizzling on and off all morning here.. pretty to see but too small to count

[CheesepuffScott]

Yeah, a slight dusting to start the day. Cloudy and cold now, -0.4°C

[Andy Bown]

Last weeks brick mystery is today’s glass tabletop mystery!!

[AWD]

15 minutes ago, TomW said:

The ensembles have not changed much for next week, but the high res has shifted to the less cold side of them overnight, this is for my location but the theme will be the same for are region.

They've definitely trended milder after the weekend mate.  Here is yesterday's 0z set for comparison to today's;

Notice that in today's, the thickest part of the pillar (ie the majority) are now going for more average temperatures beyond the weekend.  Also notice that on today's set, the -6 number on the bottom temperature graph is no longer needed compared to yesterday's, never a good sign.

We will see what the next few days holds anyway.  Still very cold out there right now, with flurries scattered around the region.  Most definitely a winter's day today.  Also, snow prospects for Devon/Cornwall are actually looking relatively good by their standards over the next few days.  Not all is lost.

[Blizzardof82]

What has my life become when I am chasing a few snow flurries on the radar.

[Frosty hollows]

Looks like another sub zero day. Hoping the Thames will be my friend today

[AWD]

3 minutes ago, Blizzardof82 said:

What has my life become when I am chasing a few snow flurries on the radar.

To be fair mate, there's not much else to do currently.

Whilst it might not be delivering for many of us, it nevertheless is a welcome distraction away from the crap that is dominating many of our lives currently.  

This thread has been a relaxing, friendly, happy, buzzing place over the last few days.  Regardless of what the weather god's actually deliver, I've enjoyed the chase if nothing else.

[CentralSouthernSnow]

Is anyone a bit annoyed that all of that snow is heading to France if only it was a bit north! The models teased us for days but I had a gut feeling it would go south. Shame the mild is coming back next week but hey ho

[Blizzardof82]

1 minute ago, AWD said:

To be fair mate, there's not much else to do currently.

Whilst it might not be delivering for many of us, it nevertheless is a welcome distraction away from the crap that is dominating many of our lives currently.  

This thread has been a relaxing, friendly, happy, buzzing place over the last few days.  Regardless of what the weather god's actually deliver, I've enjoyed the chase if nothing else.

Agreed, I love the chase even if 99% of those chases end in failure and yes you are right this is a friendly place and a lovely distraction from the world at present.  

[Wilxy]

8 minutes ago, AWD said:

They've definitely trended milder after the weekend mate.  Here is yesterday's 0z set for comparison to today's;

Notice that in today's, the thickest part of the pillar (ie the majority) are now going for more average temperatures beyond the weekend.  Also notice that on today's set, the -6 number on the bottom temperature graph is no longer needed compared to yesterday's, never a good sign.

We will see what the next few days holds anyway.  Still very cold out there right now, with flurries scattered around the region.  Most definitely a winter's day today.  Also, snow prospects for Devon/Cornwall are actually looking relatively good by their standards over the next few days.  Not all is lost.

They have defiantly trended milder 100% but also notice on the one you sent how the red and blue line for 2M Temp are on the bottom end of the ENS whilst the one I posted was on the top end so maybe the ECM from this morning was breaking down the cold a little to quickly but we shall see where we are by this evening!

[khodds]

We are right under that streamer... forecast radar has it dying out on a couple of hours, is this the case do we know?

[Barney2201]

Newbie here...

Based in Guernsey and looking closely at the band pushing towards us, will it turn south to France before it makes it......

[Leon1]

Just started snowing lightly. Judging by the radar it will be for a while but needs to be heavier to settle I think. 

[AWD]

4 minutes ago, TomW said:

They have defiantly trended milder 100% but also notice on the one you sent how the red and blue line for 2M Temp are on the bottom end of the ENS whilst the one I posted was on the top end so maybe the ECM from this morning was breaking down the cold a little to quickly but we shall see where we are by this evening!

Oh yeah, agree there mate.  Whilst a less cold theme over the weekend into next week is the most likely outcome now, the speed of it is very much open to question still.

Every chance the deterministic run could be too fast.  A slower warming up COULD be more favourable to a snowier breakdown, more so for northern and eastern areas of the region.  Something to watch on subsequent runs.

Edited February 9, 2021 by AWD

[khodds]

It’s actually really heavy graupel here now!! 
 

...and it’s stopped lol

Edited February 9, 2021 by khodds