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South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Brockham, near Dorking, Surrey. 75m ASL.
  • Location: Brockham, near Dorking, Surrey. 75m ASL.

    The Met Office is doing what the BBC does - their SE regional text sumary talks of scattered snow showers in the east of the region overnight, while its forecast map shows a significant streamer NE to SW right across the middle of the region tonight/early tomorrow morning, with nothing to the east of that.  Consistency, even if wrong, is far better than such randomness.

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    Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Snow and more Snow!
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
    Just now, Ian Docwra said:

    The Met Office is doing what the BBC does - their SE regional text sumary talks of scattered snow showers in the east of the region overnight, while its forecast map shows a significant streamer NE to SW right across the middle of the region tonight/early tomorrow morning, with nothing to the east of that.  Consistency, even if wrong, is far better than such randomness.

    The Beeb almost never go for streamers, I think they are too risk averse.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level

    Had a few small flurries today, looks like it does what it does best here; break up just before it reaches here.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hailsham, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow and ice days
  • Location: Hailsham, East Sussex

    The MO update certainly suggests that there will be at least some more chases to come for the rest of this month and into March. The fact that there’s mention of snow showers in the east with the driest weather further north has to keep us interested surely?

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    3 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

    I know the snow chance are still possible for tomorrow but it feels like this spell is running out of steam and on its way out.

    Snowfall would place this in my Top 10 for my lifetime but closer to 10 than 5 probably settling around about 8th. 

    Depth of Cold would put it around 7th over the last 48 years.

    The problem with this spell as others have noted has been the build up, you simply cant expect the temperatures 2 days before to be 12c, the day before 7c and with no frosts to cool the saturated ground down there really was going to be problems with laying snow. Snowfall intensity has been pretty awful and nowhere near the 3 big spells of 1987, 1991 and 2010. 

    All 3 of those spells were the traditional Sunshine and Shower type Easterlies with convection growing upto 15,000ft and Thundersnow reported in all of them, this spell like the last Beast in 2018 have relied on showers coming along through a stratus deck with no sunshine between the showers.

    So again although not anywhere near the best it certainly has been good enough for sledging, snowman building and Ice Days which is what you would expect from a Scandinavian sourced airflow in early February.

    Hope the cold holds on and any Atlantic wetness is deflected away, would love to see a week of cold Scandi High dry weather to get that cold into the ground and who knows the next snow to come after that could be of a much better quality.

    Paul, what do you think prevented this easterly from bring a classic? Did the remnants of the LP (Darcy) scupper deep convection?

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    Posted
  • Location: Coulsdon, Surrey 147M (asl)
  • Location: Coulsdon, Surrey 147M (asl)
    3 minutes ago, Southender said:

    Fax charts suggest a Thames Streamer 06:00hrs Weds, then shifting south to a more Mid-Kent/Sussex streamer 12:00hrs Weds.

     

    EtyvQMVXcAEECvC.jpg

    EtywRY-XUAQA68W.jpg

    The other thing worth noting on the fax chart is the low pressure out west that is forecast to come across at the weekend (possibly) to bring the mild weather. it showed as being 960MB on Sunday and is now 970MB, so with each run it is filling. it might make it harder for it to push against the cold air.

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    Posted
  • Location: Vauxhall, London
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and hot, dry summers
  • Location: Vauxhall, London

    Most models have snow showers / streamers continuing to affect Eastern parts of the region until Thursday afternoon

    Potential warm up next week but still not within reliable timeframe. Really hope we get a surprise dumping of snow! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.
    3 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

    I know the snow chance are still possible for tomorrow but it feels like this spell is running out of steam and on its way out.

    Snowfall would place this in my Top 10 for my lifetime but closer to 10 than 5 probably settling around about 8th. 

    Depth of Cold would put it around 7th over the last 48 years.

    The problem with this spell as others have noted has been the build up, you simply cant expect the temperatures 2 days before to be 12c, the day before 7c and with no frosts to cool the saturated ground down there really was going to be problems with laying snow. Snowfall intensity has been pretty awful and nowhere near the 3 big spells of 1987, 1991 and 2010. 

    All 3 of those spells were the traditional Sunshine and Shower type Easterlies with convection growing upto 15,000ft and Thundersnow reported in all of them, this spell like the last Beast in 2018 have relied on showers coming along through a stratus deck with no sunshine between the showers.

    So again although not anywhere near the best it certainly has been good enough for sledging, snowman building and Ice Days which is what you would expect from a Scandinavian sourced airflow in early February.

    Hope the cold holds on and any Atlantic wetness is deflected away, would love to see a week of cold Scandi High dry weather to get that cold into the ground and who knows the next snow to come after that could be of a much better quality.

    Yeah i'd go along with those thoughts. I said yesterday it feels like a watered down version of March 2018, but with some similarities.

    But places like Ipswich etc have probably had one of the most memorable spells ever and others the most forgettable.

    Considering we are such a small island, the variations when it comes to snow is just unbelievable really.

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    Posted
  • Location: The Deben Valley, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, very cold (inc. anticyclonic) weather
  • Location: The Deben Valley, Suffolk

    I was thinking that we weren't going to be seeing much more snow out of this cold spell but the latest MetOffice video forecast actually looks pretty good for Eat Anglia right through tomorrow and into tomorrow night.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
    1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

    Paul, what do you think prevented this easterly from bring a classic? Did the remnants of the LP (Darcy) scupper deep convection?

    I dont think it helped all that much and cannot remember having a frontal LP system before the main event before, that usually happens after the best convergence driven showers have dumped their load. I remember in the 2009 February Thames Snow Streamer, 2 days later the was an area of Snow from a frontal system that impacted the SE and areas to the North and West of London did best along with the Chilterns, ironically there was too much Mild air for Coastal Kent and Essex entrained with Mild Sectors and South Easterly winds making it the wrong side of marginal.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    5 minutes ago, suffolkboy_ said:

    I was thinking that we weren't going to be seeing much more snow out of this cold spell but the latest MetOffice video forecast actually looks pretty good for Eat Anglia right through tomorrow and into tomorrow night.

    OK - it'll be dry then! They haven't been great recently.

    Edited by Djdazzle
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    Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast

    Without the sun and some snow we had NO melt whatsoever, but now the sun is out, a rapid thaw of the snow! Boohisss

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    Posted
  • Location: Brockham, near Dorking, Surrey. 75m ASL.
  • Location: Brockham, near Dorking, Surrey. 75m ASL.
    12 minutes ago, throwoff said:

    The Beeb almost never go for streamers, I think they are too risk averse.

    My point was that the BBC's output isn't consistent within itself (i.e. lining up the text summaries and the hourly breakdowns) and neither is the MO's today.  BTW, the BBC TV forecast this morning talked of streamers, too.

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    Posted
  • Location: NE London
  • Location: NE London

    The last few days of weather have felt more like what would have happened if some of the worse model runs from last week came in to fruition. But we ended up getting -11/-12 uppers, low dew points and ice days, and a fairly strong easterly, and most of our region somehow ends up getting dandruff precipitation, or some temporary more substantial snow which immediately starts melting/ disappearing.

    A lot of my most memorable snow events in the past have been in feb though, so i don't really think the end result from the last few days is very typical from what these synoptics would often deliver during feb. Also don't forget a lot of the major historical events happening in feb..., like feb 1991, or 1947 which i think was most severe in feb.

    Edited by londonblizzard
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    Posted
  • Location: TW13
  • Weather Preferences: Cold
  • Location: TW13

    My paving slab is now completely snow free, been snowing off and on all day but just has not amounted to anything, grass almost completely clear now.  Not in my top 5 cold events but I suppose there is still time left...... 

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    Posted
  • Location: Steyning, West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, snow and ice. The usual.
  • Location: Steyning, West Sussex
    19 minutes ago, sukayuonsensnow said:

    Think I'm gonna call it a day on any more 'snow' west of the M25. Thames streamer dying fast and not getting much beyond the M25 at all now.

    Maybe there'll be some surprises later but doubtful.

    Looking across the region, there seems to have been a patch of very low dew points approximately correlating to the dissipating precip south and west of the M25. For example, my temperature is around -0.8, but my DP is around -6. With such a low relative humidity, I guess this could have been inhibiting precipitation from reaching us, however it does look to increase soon to become more confined to the SW, which may help if any showers do encroach later on... by which time they will have died off, knowing our luck! 😉

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex near Ongar
  • Weather Preferences: Oh snow, got to be close second frosty mornings, all white and glistening,
  • Location: Essex near Ongar

    very light snow here, i had a nap woke up and a lot of it has melted on the rd, still everything else covered, you know when you watch tiny flakes and just want to give it a good old nudge 😊

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    Posted
  • Location: Brockham, near Dorking, Surrey. 75m ASL.
  • Location: Brockham, near Dorking, Surrey. 75m ASL.
    1 minute ago, londonblizzard said:

    The last few days of weather have felt more like what would have happened if some of the worse model runs from last week came in to fruition. But we ended up getting -11/-12 uppers, low dew points and ice days, and a fairly strong easterly, and most of our region somehow ends up getting dandruff precipitation, or some temporary more substantial snow which immediately starts melting/ disappearing.

    A lot of my most memorable snow events in the past have been in feb though, so i don't really think the end result from the last few days is very typical from what these synoptics would usually deliver during feb. Also don't forget a lot of of the major historical events happening in feb..., like feb 1991, or 1947 which i think was most severe in feb.

    Again, the very mild and very wet lead up to this has led to much ground snow loss, when a cold, frosty precursor would not have.  Bear in mind that if all the snow that fell had accumulated (on frosty, dry ground) many more areas would have a significant depth.  That's exactly what happened here on 24 January, when snow from the west settled on a hard frost - not a flake was wasted!

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    Posted
  • Location: Woburn
  • Location: Woburn
    12 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

    My pals road/house Anhalt Germany 🇩🇪.. where overnight he has just over a meter of ground accumulation.. 4meter drifts.. and a daytime temperature.. hovering around -10... now that’s winter ❄️ @proper .. @ nice 1 for the pics craig 👊👌👌👊

    A86574AF-959C-449F-8E6F-3D6ECAC8C7A7.jpeg

    AA4EC058-C7B8-4A93-8CB8-7683A6E40450.jpeg

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    33E1169C-8A44-4DD9-A5B4-98B8FFD4D101.jpeg

    F615B312-3120-4538-8A32-A5614190A87F.png

    Similar to the pics  my mate sent me in Munster Germany. 
     

    Meanwhile over here = 5cm is chaos. 
     

    Slow old thaw here today with temps hovering around freezing with some decent sunny spells. 
    A break from the rain at least. 

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    Posted
  • Location: colchester,essex
  • Weather Preferences: Very Hot,Very cold.scared of thunder and lightning.
  • Location: colchester,essex

    Surprised given the minus temps all day the thick snow on the paths  has melted so fast.

    Snow all day and no settling?

    Not even ice on the ground?

    Those wind chill temps are very low so I can't quite work it out.

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    Posted
  • Location: Lee, SE London, SE12, 21m (68ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Anything extreme!
  • Location: Lee, SE London, SE12, 21m (68ft) ASL

    Sun is about to set and the snow, even though light, keeps falling. Not far off 60 hours non stop. No big accumulation, but great to look at falling.

    Settling again on everything but paths and roads after the earlier melt. 

    I'm enjoying this a lot! 

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