South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards

[suffolk lady]

We have had to do emergency heating, central heating on from 2-30 hubby said its flaming cold lets get this house warmed up and i hadn't even had to drop a hint about feeling chilly. What a drab dreary day its been wall to wall grey outside.

[Electricmumma]

It’s odd, gentle rain but still flaming muggy, I breathe and I melt. I’m going to be confused as I’m heading to soton for a few days so will have to remember to pay attention to different parts of the charts

[moogyboobles]

I'm really enjoying this rain. I wish I had one of those gazebos with a proper roof so I can get on with my work outside! 

And I realised of course it's a wet weekend, Download festival is back.
Things are getting back to normal when festival goers are knee deep in mud.

[Baldock]

 Afternoon everyone. It has been pouring down for most of the day and I have just tipped 60mm out of the rain gauge. Roads awash as you might expect. A very unusual day of weather.

[andreas]

Also quite unusual for a summer month for the temperature to be at its warmest in the early morning (16.2) before dropping to 14.7 in the course of the day, now 14.9.

Edited June 18, 2021 by andreas

[minus10]

Well that was a wet day. 45mm fell and as the average rainfull for whole of June for Herts is just under 40mm more than a months rainfull fell in just one day..

Edited June 18, 2021 by minus10
Incorrect month stated initially

[Stargazer]

Here in Reading, weather stations have widely recorded around 50mm, which is just over the average for June, and to the south of us there are stations that have recorded 80mm plus. I think today will be the wettest June day on record in this area.

[Atmogenic]

What a miserable day it has been, not one ounce of sunshine through the clouds, completely damp and it actually got a bit chilly that i had to close the window, I hope tomorrow is better as i never want to experience another day like this during our summer season

[Norfolk Sheep]

Heaviest rain of the day so far just now, 16mm in the rain gauge as from last night (got soaked dashing about a metre or so to empty it!)

[Blessed Weather]

Wonderful photo posted by Dan Holley, Weatherquest, Norwich, of a shelf cloud on Wednesday:

Shelf cloud approaching Dungeness in SE Kent on Wednesday evening. Shortly after this photo was taken very gusty outflow winds hit, and a few minutes after that torrential rain began...

Source: Twitter @danholley_

[Soaring Hawk]

Well, that was a nice summer.  The radiators kicked in around 6pm and earlier Autumnal dog walk was dark, wet and very chilly. Max temperature today of 16C at 00.05.  Currently 11C.  Humidity 93%. Wind NW 4mph, average over 10 mins 3.8mph and over 2 mins 3.1mph.  Pressure 1013.7hPa rising slowly.  49.4mm of rain has fallen since midnight with a max rain rate of 42.0 at 13:31. 

Had to go to a meeting in Bedford this afternoon with atrocious driving conditions triggering a constant rendition of Jesus, Mary and the Winter Tyres and several pacts with God if I got there and back in one piece.   Visibility scarily poor, lots of flooding, tree debris on roads presumably from the intensity of rain as it wasn't windy, cars swerving to avoid floods.  Took over 50 minutes to get through a stretch of the journey that takes max of 15 minutes at rush hour.  Had to pull over for 2 ambulances blue lighting out of Bedford, police cars plus a couple of fire engines so I hope there weren't any serious accidents and/or injuries.  I saw one incident after someone tried to avoid a section of flooded road and slid into another car but that wasn't more than car damage and everyone looked ok, if not particularly happy.   Very glad to have made it back home with the car and me in one piece and that I've been too busy to get the winters changed to summer tyres 

[alexisj9]

8 hours ago, suffolk lady said:

We have had to do emergency heating, central heating on from 2-30 hubby said its flaming cold lets get this house warmed up and i hadn't even had to drop a hint about feeling chilly. What a drab dreary day its been wall to wall grey outside.

I wish, my house is still hot even now.

[alexisj9]

1 hour ago, Soaring Hawk said:

Well, that was a nice summer.  The radiators kicked in around 6pm and earlier Autumnal dog walk was dark, wet and very chilly. Max temperature today of 16C at 00.05.  Currently 11C.  Humidity 93%. Wind NW 4mph, average over 10 mins 3.8mph and over 2 mins 3.1mph.  Pressure 1013.7hPa rising slowly.  49.4mm of rain has fallen since midnight with a max rain rate of 42.0 at 13:31. 

Had to go to a meeting in Bedford this afternoon with atrocious driving conditions triggering a constant rendition of Jesus, Mary and the Winter Tyres and several pacts with God if I got there and back in one piece.   Visibility scarily poor, lots of flooding, tree debris on roads presumably from the intensity of rain as it wasn't windy, cars swerving to avoid floods.  Took over 50 minutes to get through a stretch of the journey that takes max of 15 minutes at rush hour.  Had to pull over for 2 ambulances blue lighting out of Bedford, police cars plus a couple of fire engines so I hope there weren't any serious accidents and/or injuries.  I saw one incident after someone tried to avoid a section of flooded road and slid into another car but that wasn't more than car damage and everyone looked ok, if not particularly happy.   Very glad to have made it back home with the car and me in one piece and that I've been too busy to get the winters changed to summer tyres 

My heating is set at 22 and hasn't clicked on for weeks. 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

37mm of rain here yesterday! Beautiful! My grass on the lawn is fluorescent its so green! 

Looks like more rain tonight and tomorrow before we slowly dry out into next week 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Level 1 from ESTOFAX for tonight! The type up is quite something..

... W France to BENELUX, UK and NW Germany...

While the kinematic environment will be less impressive here than to the S / SE, 0-6 km bulk shear should still be more than sufficient for well-organised storms, including supercells. Storms development will be likely tied to the passage of the short-wave trough that will start over the Bay of Biscay and move quickly towards the UK. Storm activity should start in the morning hours over SW France, spreading north during the day. Storms will be capable of (very) large hail and severe wind gust.

Cyclogenesis is forecast along the frontal wave ahead of the trough with backing low-level winds across N France. This will increase the amount of SRH and 0-1 km bulk shear and elevate the tornado threat by the evening hours. Currently, the exact location of SRH bullseye is not consistent among the NWP and thus it is not possible to pick up the region with the highest tornado threat.

Towards the night, strong WAA regime will support widespread storm initiation and one or two systems will cross S UK and BENELUX. As the boundary layer stabilizes and/or systems cross the frontal boundary, they will become elevated, reducing the severe wind gust threat to some degree. Nevertheless, isolated large hail and very heavy rainfall threat will still be present.

[Blessed Weather]

10 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Level 1 from ESTOFAX for tonight! The type up is quite something..

... W France to BENELUX, UK and NW Germany...

While the kinematic environment will be less impressive here than to the S / SE, 0-6 km bulk shear should still be more than sufficient for well-organised storms, including supercells. Storms development will be likely tied to the passage of the short-wave trough that will start over the Bay of Biscay and move quickly towards the UK. Storm activity should start in the morning hours over SW France, spreading north during the day. Storms will be capable of (very) large hail and severe wind gust.

Cyclogenesis is forecast along the frontal wave ahead of the trough with backing low-level winds across N France. This will increase the amount of SRH and 0-1 km bulk shear and elevate the tornado threat by the evening hours. Currently, the exact location of SRH bullseye is not consistent among the NWP and thus it is not possible to pick up the region with the highest tornado threat.

Towards the night, strong WAA regime will support widespread storm initiation and one or two systems will cross S UK and BENELUX. As the boundary layer stabilizes and/or systems cross the frontal boundary, they will become elevated, reducing the severe wind gust threat to some degree. Nevertheless, isolated large hail and very heavy rainfall threat will still be present.

Yes, that looks a very interesting development Surrey. But yet again exact tracking is the big uncertainty. Here's how Arpege sees it, with this sequence from 9pm tonight thru to 9am Sunday:

Whereas Euro4 has the main activity further east. Here's the sequence for the same time-span. So it's going to be down to radar watching again this evening!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

16 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:

Yes, that looks a very interesting development Surrey. But yet again exact tracking is the big uncertainty. Here's how Arpege sees it, with this sequence from 9pm tonight thru to 9am Sunday:

Whereas Euro4 has the main activity further east. Here's the sequence for the same time-span. So it's going to be down to radar watching again this evening!

EURO4 did quite well the other day... Like you say we will have to see how things develop should see things start to fire in the regions South to us

 

Looks like it picks up new cells firing later on "home grown" storms

Edited June 19, 2021 by Surrey

[Blessed Weather]

For the record, the high-res radar calculation of rainfall totals yesterday, Friday 18th. The bright reds showing many places saw around 50mm (2 inches) of rain.

Source: Netweather Extra.

[lassie23]

it's cold

[Norfolk Sheep]

2 hours ago, Blessed Weather said:

For the record, the high-res radar calculation of rainfall totals yesterday, Friday 18th. The bright reds showing many places saw around 50mm (2 inches) of rain.

Source: Netweather Extra.

Pretty much spot on for me, I only recorded 16mm 

[Blazerblue]

Been a cloudy and damp morning with the very light drizzle now and again. Temp a balmy 14c  

[Norfolk Sheep]

18 minutes ago, Blazerblue said:

Been a cloudy and damp morning with the very light drizzle now and again. Temp a balmy 14c  

Blooming 'orrible!

Re-organised Goldie Corn and her Peepers so they have a bigger world to explore. Haven't told her that No.10 is about to enter earth's orbit in a couple of hours but I'm sure she won't notice!

[Badgers01]

yesterdays rain put paid to next doors tree it snapped in 2 during the torrential downpours !!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

56 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

yesterdays rain put paid to next doors tree it snapped in 2 during the torrential downpours !!

Tell them not to remove the stump if not damaged! It will come back! They are very very quick growing a tree of that size will not be more than maybe 50-60 years old.. 

Probably due to the tree being pretty dry inside and couldn't take the amount of weight in water that fell so quickly..

[Tn9]

5 hours ago, Surrey said:

Tell them not to remove the stump if not damaged! It will come back! They are very very quick growing a tree of that size will not be more than maybe 50-60 years old.. 

Probably due to the tree being pretty dry inside and couldn't take the amount of weight in water that fell so quickly..

Weeping willow isnt it,yea that will start sprouting up quickly,must, like you say had weak point.fantastic photos from the other night,lets hope thats not it for us,models dont expect that much warmth for a while,rain?,well there was a lot, but it seems a months rain fell in a day in some places ,but we  had a relatively dry 3 odd weeks previous ,seems a bit neither here nor  there at moment ,sw usa ,well different kettle of fish.if nevardians, desert people really think its scorchio then it must be unbearable .