South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards

[Blazerblue]

Been raining all morning, well at least since I woke up at half 6 and its still raining, although I can see a hint of blue off to the S/west, so hopefully its nearly cleared through. Tomorrow should hopefully be a nicer day and fairly warm if the winds arent too blustery.

Edited May 8, 2021 by Blazerblue

[Atmogenic]

 just saw tints of blue skies looking at the clouds, could this mean i can go outside later on

[Britneyfan]

5 minutes ago, Atmogenic said:

 just saw tints of blue skies looking at the clouds, could this mean i can go outside later on

There will be more sunny spells around this evening coming up from the south should also be when we get the warmest temps for today 16 or 17 

[Eagle Eye]

6 minutes ago, Atmogenic said:

 just saw tints of blue skies looking at the clouds, could this mean i can go outside later on

Definitely not tommorrow night but do keep your camera ready, a big storm possible but just going to be cloudy for the rest of today probably. 

Edited May 8, 2021 by Eagle Eye

[suffolk lady]

ok we are now down to but temp probably only about 10degrees bit of a breeze as well but at least the sky is light grey now.

[Britneyfan]

Can really feel the humidity now just hit 16°

[Atmogenic]

3 hours ago, Eagle Eye said:

Definitely not tommorrow night but do keep your camera ready, a big storm possible but just going to be cloudy for the rest of today probably. 

wasn't planning anything with storms, just being able to go out for a walk which I was able and was nice even with that strong wind it wasn't cold unlike it has been for some time

[Eagle Eye]

3 minutes ago, Atmogenic said:

wasn't planning anything with storms, just being able to go out for a walk which I was able and was nice even with that strong wind it wasn't cold unlike it has been for some time

Yeah was expecting to come back wanting the fire on after football, turned out I didn't even need a jacket.

[Britneyfan]

15.5° at 8pm! Tomorrow with some sunshine is going to be warm! Even more so after what we have had 

[LightningLover]

[Damp and dreary]

21 minutes ago, LightningLover said:

Good morning buddy, Heres the view of the same cloud from Eastbourne towards Bexhill   Nice bit of Mammatus for the morning., woken at 6ish to Hail and a distant rumble of Thunder.

Edited May 9, 2021 by jasonuk

[Eagle Eye]

25 minutes ago, jasonuk said:

Good morning buddy, Heres the view of the same cloud from Eastbourne towards Bexhill   Nice bit of Mammatus for the morning., woken at 6ish to Hail and a distant rumble of Thunder.

Quite a constant thunder like sound here,veiw to my south and north. 

 

 

[Damp and dreary]

30 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

Quite a constant thunder like sound here,veiw to my south and north. 

 

 

I can spend ages staring at the views from my place, you have a good one too. Sadly the Convective stuff is veering more to the East now. Il be looking forward to later on today and seeing if anything comes our way. 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Morning all! Good to see some people getting some thunder early on in the day!

I think today will be the first real feel of some humidgity feeling weather.. and the first risk at some storms for the year (finally) 

The further East you are the better and even those on the East coast if it all goes to pot may see distant lightning out over the North Sea IF storms do fire.

It is all associated with the relatively humid and warm air that has been drawn up from the south that is clipping the south east.. 

As always model difference is HUGE 

AROME - What looks like 2 rounds of storms some early evening before it comes up with what looks like some form of MCS clipping Kent - not sure on lightning amounts though as conditions are not overly favourable our side for storms 

 

ARPEGE - Doesn't make much of the first round of storms that the AROME does but does also have some mass of convective rain moving North albiet more east than the Arome, still close enough for many in Eastern areas to see distant lightning if it does contain any/ happens.

 

 

ICON - Semi agrees with Arome in that some form of convective weather early/late evening. It does have the Mass of convective rain later in the night but doesn't make near as much of a fuss about it than the above 2. 

 

 

ECM - Agrees pretty well with the ICON and Arome - It also shows the Mass of convective rain later in the night but again favours a more easterly solution.

 

EURO 4 - Very bullish about storms - Pretty much has the most western favoured solution in that pretty much anyone at risk of seeing some form of rain/storm. Not really buying this idea and will await the updated runs during the day. Nearly tracks that storm that leaves the North French Coast all the way to Denmark..

Nothing from ESTOFAX yet Met office mentioning of storms in text but more eastern areas. 

 

 

UK Convective weather do have a risk with the slight being moved West depending on how it pans out. I would agree with this idea looking at how many different model outputs there are.

 SUNDAY EVENING: SE ENGLAND / EAST ANGLIA ...

As the flow aloft backs slightly during the afternoon/early evening, the Theta-W plume over France may bulge closer to SE England for a time. Approaching PVA as the upper trough becomes increasingly negatively-tilted over western Europe will result in forced ascent - with potential for both surface-based thunderstorms to develop over mainland France and also elevated showers/thunderstorms more generally over northern France towards evening. It is likely most lightning activity will remain close to France / BeNeLux and the eastern English Channel, however as is often the case in such situations there is a level of uncertainty and some sporadic lightning cannot be ruled out over SE England for a time during the evening hours - as such the SLGT may be expanded westwards if confidence increases.

Convective Weather

WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK

---

Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

 

[lottiekent]

Woken by a heavy shower and distant thunder around 6am.

Now constant thunder (no breaks at all in the noise!) as a small cell comes close.

[Eagle Eye]

Time-lapse of the Storm passing to the East. 

 

Edited May 9, 2021 by Eagle Eye

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Just now, lottiekent said:

Woken by a heavy shower and distant thunder around 6am.

Now constant thunder (no breaks at all in the noise!) as a small cell comes close.

Quite a lively little storm..

Lightning & Thunderstorms - United Kingdom, England, Scotland, Wales, Ireland

WWW.BLITZORTUNG.ORG

---

Blitzortung.org provides lightning and thunderstorm information in real time on maps for USA, United Kingdom, Australia, new Zealand, Europa, Africa, Asia and other Countries.

Show how quickly the weather can flip and change in this country.. frosty last week.. Humid and stormy weekend

 

[lottiekent]

Very lively! Wasn’t expecting anything this morning...annoying as wanted to get our planters in to get the veg out and planted! Hopefully it’ll pass by and then be sunny for a few hours.

 

[alexisj9]

Lots and lots of thunder here heavy rain has started,  sounds like and MCs?

 

[Blazerblue]

Beautiful warm sunny blue skies here to wake up to, some cloud has rolled in, hoping that burns off quickly, loads of washing to get dry, so the storms can stay away until this evening, of course here in the Triangle they will miss us anyway, we'll just get rain!

[alexisj9]

42 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Morning all! Good to see some people getting some thunder early on in the day!

I think today will be the first real feel of some humidgity feeling weather.. and the first risk at some storms for the year (finally) 

The further East you are the better and even those on the East coast if it all goes to pot may see distant lightning out over the North Sea IF storms do fire.

It is all associated with the relatively humid and warm air that has been drawn up from the south that is clipping the south east.. 

As always model difference is HUGE 

AROME - What looks like 2 rounds of storms some early evening before it comes up with what looks like some form of MCS clipping Kent - not sure on lightning amounts though as conditions are not overly favourable our side for storms 

 

ARPEGE - Doesn't make much of the first round of storms that the AROME does but does also have some mass of convective rain moving North albiet more east than the Arome, still close enough for many in Eastern areas to see distant lightning if it does contain any/ happens.

 

 

ICON - Semi agrees with Arome in that some form of convective weather early/late evening. It does have the Mass of convective rain later in the night but doesn't make near as much of a fuss about it than the above 2. 

 

 

ECM - Agrees pretty well with the ICON and Arome - It also shows the Mass of convective rain later in the night but again favours a more easterly solution.

 

EURO 4 - Very bullish about storms - Pretty much has the most western favoured solution in that pretty much anyone at risk of seeing some form of rain/storm. Not really buying this idea and will await the updated runs during the day. Nearly tracks that storm that leaves the North French Coast all the way to Denmark..

Nothing from ESTOFAX yet Met office mentioning of storms in text but more eastern areas. 

 

 

UK Convective weather do have a risk with the slight being moved West depending on how it pans out. I would agree with this idea looking at how many different model outputs there are.

 SUNDAY EVENING: SE ENGLAND / EAST ANGLIA ...

As the flow aloft backs slightly during the afternoon/early evening, the Theta-W plume over France may bulge closer to SE England for a time. Approaching PVA as the upper trough becomes increasingly negatively-tilted over western Europe will result in forced ascent - with potential for both surface-based thunderstorms to develop over mainland France and also elevated showers/thunderstorms more generally over northern France towards evening. It is likely most lightning activity will remain close to France / BeNeLux and the eastern English Channel, however as is often the case in such situations there is a level of uncertainty and some sporadic lightning cannot be ruled out over SE England for a time during the evening hours - as such the SLGT may be expanded westwards if confidence increases.

Convective Weather

WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK

---

Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

 

So everything missed whatever is causing this morning's showers then, is that good or bad?

 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Just now, alexisj9 said:

So everything missed whatever is causing this morning's showers then, is that good or bad?

 

No most models picked up this mornings risk okay 

[SHM040519]

7 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

So everything missed whatever is causing this morning's showers then, is that good or bad?

 

Radar looks like Dover got pasted? Missed us sadly!

[alexisj9]

4 minutes ago, SHM040519 said:

Radar looks like Dover got pasted? Missed us sadly!

Lots of quiet thunder that sounded miles away, must have been very high, the heavy rain was louder, hence my description of it sounding like an MCs. Lightning wise, nothing visible at all.

Edited May 9, 2021 by alexisj9

[magicpatch]

Morning all, a bright sunny start here but the cloud is starting to bubble up as expected, the breeze has picked up a little too! The forecast for today is for it to be mostly cloudy but 18c, although the forecast for yesterday was for 17c and we scraped over 15c at 6pm. Seems we might be too far West to catch the storms, but a couple of forecasts suggest there's a chance after 6pm so we shall see.