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South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards


Captain Shortwave

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Posted
  • Location: Locksbottom, NW Kent 92m asl(310ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers but not too hot and colder winters with frost and snow
  • Location: Locksbottom, NW Kent 92m asl(310ft)

Well the latest GFS. Chart sort of mirrors Met office update.I was thinking that if that came to fruition we would have one advantage and one disadvantage.The disadvantage being sun will have a little more strength as days will be longer but the advantage would be the preceding days to the possible forthcoming spell would be cooler and drier so the ground would have become cooler and easier for snow to settle.This last spell was a real shame for quite a few as last Sunday so much snow depth potential was lost because preceding days were both mild and wet so ground was warmer than snow lovers would have liked.All hypothetical but hopefully if cold spell was to happen we would be in a better position.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Silver Hill, Salehurst, East Sussex. 110m asl
  • Location: Silver Hill, Salehurst, East Sussex. 110m asl

Temp peaked here at -0.5C around 10.45am, then a very sudden drop in dew points from -4.1C to -6.9C now. Air temp has dropped concomitantly to -1.4C. Sunny with a bitter ENE wind 12mph gusting 29mph now. Widely 4cm snow still on the ground.

Edited by Ackkers
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Posted
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London

Interesting CFS model updated trend for next Wednesday 17th Feb. HP setting in allowing a very cold feed to commence (As Always: Subject To Change)

1857235735_01_CFS0ZZ50012_02.2021For17_02.2021_6pm.thumb.png.6bef041e839511ca07b2d40de03d0519.png

 

Following the CFS trend for the 18th Feb, HP is more established with a very cold feed flowing towards the eastern part of the UK (As Always: Subject To Change)

345452951_02_CFS0ZZ50012_02.2021For18_02.2021_6pm.thumb.png.7aa7b8b47528027866079de1808dfca0.png

 

Continuing the CFS trend for the 19th Feb, HP again is established with a very cold feed especially to the UK's E & SE (As Always: Subject To Change)

483784503_03_CFS0ZZ50012_02.2021For19_02.2021_6pm.thumb.png.6900d60067be91223ac78bb8a5130951.png

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Posted
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, frost and snow
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk

As @Hotspur62 just alluded to, GFS also now showing signs of what the Met Office long range forecasts have been hinting at.

gfs-0-324.png

gfs-1-324.png

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Posted
  • Location: Fleet, Hampshire
  • Location: Fleet, Hampshire
15 minutes ago, Ian Docwra said:

Much less high cloud today is allowing stronger sunshine.

Thanks. I assume the models werent aware of this then.

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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
1 hour ago, Paul Sherman said:

Strangely that Easterly wind not letting up the fight that easily, thought by now we would firmly be in a South Easterly veering to SSE by tomorrow but most places still with East winds more especially the East Kent coasts and this is advecting in super dry air with some -9c dewpoints creeping over from France and Belgium.

When exposed to that wind it is harsh luckily the snow pack is so crunchy and iced over there is thankfully little chance of drifting otherwise there would be some impressive totals blown into North West and West areas exposed to this wind.

I know the models still forecast the loww winning out with it's warmth, with a southerly air flow, but just wondering, do you think, the high might actually still win out, I'm not sure either way, but it's definitely putting up one hell of a fight.

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Posted
  • Location: Fleet, Hampshire
  • Location: Fleet, Hampshire
8 minutes ago, NewEra21 said:

As @Hotspur62 just alluded to, GFS also now showing signs of what the Met Office long range forecasts have been hinting at.

gfs-0-324.png

gfs-1-324.png

Interesting. It would have to be something quite exceptional to get ice days and snow that time of year (what I term as the holy grail) bt if it can be extreme cold can it at least be snowy please weather gods

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
11 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

I know the models still forecast the loww winning out with it's warmth, with a southerly air flow, but just wondering, do you think, the high might actually still win out, I'm not sure either way, but it's definitely putting up one hell of a fight.

High pressure is much harder to push out of the way so we have that on our side but I think unfortunately it just relaxes away enough to affect only Western Germany and Poland etc but encouraging signs that High Pressure will never be far away and the Atlantic is very sleepy this time of year.

As others have noted amazingly dry dewpoint air coming in now my obs below

6z Temp was -1c with dewpoint of -4c

7z Temp was -1c with dewpoint of -4c

8z Temp was 0c with dewpoint of -4c

09z Temp was 0c with dewpoint of -5c

10z Temp was 0c with dewpoint of -5c

11z Temp was -1c with dewpoint of -6c

12z Temp was -2c with dewpoint of -7c

Ground absolutely frozen solid now with no wet underneath the ice, if we can get a week of dry weather before another shot the snow should be spectacular

 

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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
16 minutes ago, Number 23 said:

Snow in Chelmsford too, bit of a surprise! 

My rain app tells me rain will start in 39 minutes here....perhaps its on its way here! 

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Posted
  • Location: Takeley, Bishop's Stortford, CM22, 104m(340ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Anything extreme!
  • Location: Takeley, Bishop's Stortford, CM22, 104m(340ft) ASL

Just been for a walk with little one. The sun is lovely and warm but that wind is biting. 

Clouded over now and noticed my location triangle in the NW radar app has turned red. What does it know? Doesn't look like that precip is coming across SE London. 

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Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City

Air getting colder, the very low dew points and snow appearing in many eastern parts moving in from the coast. The area in suffolk was a surprise. Also a little precipitation making its way westwards from colchester. Is there going to be a last minute surprise.?

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Interesting, the depth of cold in the North Sea and lapping onto the coasts is by far the coldest of this spell (The -14c isotherm getting into East Norfolk and Suffolk). So not surprised that some coastal counties are seeing some snow. 
image.thumb.png.819f9a39a744a31e7f7cc7a5cf722e4c.png
However there do appear to be some showers actually developing inland with one moving westwards north of Peterborough. Here in Huntingdon, quite a bit of cloud has bubbled up, which was not forecast.

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
9 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

My rain app tells me rain will start in 39 minutes here....perhaps its on its way here! 

It now says 45 minutes!    Must be leaves on the line!  

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Posted
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk.
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk.
2 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Interesting, the depth of cold in the North Sea and lapping onto the coasts is by far the coldest of this spell (The -14c isotherm getting into East Norfolk and Suffolk). So not surprised that some coastal counties are seeing some snow. 
image.thumb.png.819f9a39a744a31e7f7cc7a5cf722e4c.png
However there do appear to be some showers actually developing inland with one moving westwards north of Peterborough. Here in Huntingdon quite a bit of cloud has bubbled up, which was not forecast.

looks like N London may get a few flakes too..?

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Posted
  • Location: Brockham, near Dorking, Surrey. 75m ASL.
  • Location: Brockham, near Dorking, Surrey. 75m ASL.
30 minutes ago, ptow said:

Thanks. I assume the models werent aware of this then.

I really do wonder what the models are aware of - at the start of this spell they seemed to be unaware of saturated, warm ground over most of the UK, and North Sea SSTs being much higher than normal.  Models, of course, are immensely complex, but these two factors are pretty basic for predicting snow formation and accumulation.

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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
1 minute ago, Timmytour said:

It now says 45 minutes!    Must be leaves on the line!  

And now its moved out to 48 minutes!!!!!

 

Definitely the wrong type of snow!

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Posted
  • Location: Brockham, near Dorking, Surrey. 75m ASL.
  • Location: Brockham, near Dorking, Surrey. 75m ASL.
8 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Air getting colder, the very low dew points and snow appearing in many eastern parts moving in from the coast. The area in suffolk was a surprise. Also a little precipitation making its way westwards from colchester. Is there going to be a last minute surprise.?

I think it's a little more E than SE than expected hence a little moisture collection on the longer sea track.  Nothing major at these pressures (1030mb).

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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
17 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

And now its moved out to 48 minutes!!!!!

 

Definitely the wrong type of snow!

And now no rain is expected!   Sums up the whole expectation v reality experience of this cold spell

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Posted
  • Location: Icklesham, near Rye East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Love hot sunshine and cold snowy weather
  • Location: Icklesham, near Rye East Sussex
1 hour ago, lassie23 said:

just seen a fly in this weather

I keep seeing them too, the midgy kind, can only think they are hardier than they used to be or it’s just not been cold enough to kill them off!!

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