South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards

[Ian Docwra]

2 minutes ago, Surrey said:

How about this.. Local road to me known for flooding because it runs of the hills.. But I've never seen ice like this.. 

Yes - we have this on a local flood-prone road - spray is thrown up and freezes.  

[alexisj9]

50 minutes ago, slater said:

So where is this record breaking cold we meant to be having this weekend lol, "worse then the weather in 62" funny how those guys not posted on the model forum since Sunday .Infact next Monday looks like a barmy 7c

Id rate this as 6/10 for effort.  Yes seen about 4cm most of that has thawed today in the sun. Oh and not been windy at all today  either. Roll on spring this can all do one now 

We had snow in stead, with out that last night would have been bracing.

Edited February 9, 2021 by alexisj9

[80sWeather]

1 minute ago, Matty88 said:

And the last for us maybe!!! Male the most of it haha. 

Talking of which - anyone got an idea on where's tonight's showers are likely to be?! Any decent charts? I've a general feeling that the shower activity is on the decline now but would like to be proven wrong !! 

Shame as yesterday’s fax had the winds converging  right through E Anglia but it seems to have disappeared from the latest one.

Winds look like they’re going back to NE again so maybe see a few flakes tonight.

[Froze were the Days]

Always amazes me the variations we get with snowfall in this country and even in this region...if you look at the globe and then see the small UK and even tinier East Anglia/South East...problem is in general we get such microscale events as per this. The BFTE 2018 was a larger scale event but even then still variation in snow depths. Less of a problem with frontal snow which stays which doesn't happen often.

Anyway temp: 0.1c snow depth:  4cm approx with some thawing.

[East Kent Snow Desert]

17 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

I agree with some of this. However, it is perfectly possible to get heavy, settling snow in February. The problem this time is that for the most part, the snow has not been heavy or continuous enough. I also think that the wind isn't really strong enough to mix up the lower levels to prevent heating.

But yes, more things have to go right in February to the conditions just right.

Agreed. Whilst some in our region have reported heavy snow showers and some of these especially in East Anglia may well be correct, I can't recall much in the yellow and orange intensity category on the NW radar indicating this to be the case.  In the 80s heavy snow was when you could look up into the sky and see it full of large snowflakes for a long period of time.  We have 10cms here and I've not witnessed that once.

[spayne]

Quick walk out along the Lee Navigation to get a few pics before the snow disappears and didn’t expect this.!!..lol. Navigation Café was open, so a bacon sarnie and a hot chocolate was much needed.!!

[jamesgold]

6 minutes ago, Matty88 said:

And the last for us maybe!!! Make the most of it haha. 

Talking of which - anyone got an idea on where's tonight's showers are likely to be?! Any decent charts? I've a general feeling that the shower activity is on the decline now but would like to be proven wrong !! 

Daniel did a good post about the FAX charts for tonight and tomorrow. Looks like most showers will be around thames estuary as they were this morning, then as winds shift NE then Kent has best chance tomorrow. That’s my understanding but who knows

[lottiekent]

Has been blowing near galeforce here today. Got up to 0.3c but back below freezing now. Not much has melted, side roads all still icy when came back from the beta earlier. Some impressive icicles as a result of the slight warm up today though!

Good to see if the convergence line is still in place when the next fax charts come out!

[dubmuffin]

9 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

I left for work at 6.30 and it was snowing - I'm back home.. guess what - the snow is still falling.. and the radar says there's more on the way 

Could be a good night for Croydon, my pessimism from yesterday has lifted a little

[Djdazzle]

3 minutes ago, East Kent Snow Desert said:

Agreed. Whilst some in our region have reported heavy snow showers and some of these especially in East Anglia may well be correct, I can't recall much in the yellow and orange intensity category on the NW radar indicating this to be the case.  In the 80s heavy snow was when you could look up into the sky and see it full of large snowflakes for a long period of time.  We have 10cms here and I've not witnessed that once.

Yes, I recall seeing blue sky then some towering cumulus in the distance, with the horizon blotted out as the snow moved in. Don't think we will see the like of it again I'm afraid.

Edited February 9, 2021 by Djdazzle

[alexisj9]

12 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

The GFS has pushed the cold back until Tuesday now - the UKMO says Monday  

Sounds more like it.

[Keefo]

Minimum last night -4.3C, Max today -1.0C, Currently -2.6C

Light snow until late morning then dry with sunny spells.

[East Kent Snow Desert]

4 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Yes, I recall seeing blue sky then some towering cumulus in the distance, with the horizon blotted out as the snow moved in. Don't think we will see the like of it again I'm afraid.

Yes I remember seeing the cloud banks preceding the 86 and 91 snowfalls certain that the snow was headed our way. 

[Matty88]

8 minutes ago, 80sWeather said:

Shame as yesterday’s fax had the winds converging  right through E Anglia but it seems to have disappeared from the latest one.

Winds look like they’re going back to NE again so maybe see a few flakes tonight.

Yes I noticed that - for a few runs we were looking in a prime location for the convergence line but it failed to materialise last night... we've been unlucky for sure but easterly's rarely provide the goods for us in mid-EA, unless it's a N/NE'ly in which case the wash can provide us with a good pasting. I knew once Sunday's fun and games didn't push into our region we would be clutching at straws....  

[James1979]

12 minutes ago, James1979 said:

Imby the last few days have got to be up there in the biggest winter weather let down in years (and there have been many). So much potential (as ever) but ultimately aside from a minor covering which is all gone and about 4 flurries it's been dry and just bloody cold. Glad some have had a good result but this can do one now, bring forth some warmth. 

No sooner do I type that then we get our biggest downpour of snow all spell and the world has turned white.... must remember to criticise cold spells earlier in the process!! Still poor overall though so far (imby) sadly. 

[sukayuonsensnow]

Think I'm gonna call it a day on any more 'snow' west of the M25. Thames streamer dying fast and not getting much beyond the M25 at all now.

Maybe there'll be some surprises later but doubtful.

[danm]

All looks like fizzling out now on the radar...

For now at least.

[Gowon]

2 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Sounds more like it.

Yeah - The models are underestimating the cold.. basically trying to blow it away too easy which usually takes a few attempts.. John Holmes posted it earlier in the mod thread.

[Captain Shortwave]

An afternoon of scattered snow showers. However over the north of the region they seem to be becoming fewer and further between and some large clear spells are developing.

[throwoff]

Miserable melty slush everywhere now. Let's see what happens tonight...

[Mark Bayley]

Temp rose to -0.2c, now back down to -0.4c. I think we've managed to secure a second ice day! Still snowing, lightly, in fact i don't think it has stopped snowing since yesterday morning! Shame it was just so light. 

Looks like we'll break 0c tomorrow (we've been helped by the constant cloud / light snow), albeit the GFS raw temps gives ice days on Thursday and Saturday 

 

 

[Southender]

Fax charts suggest a Thames Streamer 06:00hrs Weds, then shifting south to a more Mid-Kent/Sussex streamer 12:00hrs Weds.

 

[Ian Docwra]

13 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Always amazes me the variations we get with snowfall in this country and even in this region...if you look at the globe and then see the small UK and even tinier East Anglia/South East...problem is in general we get such microscale events as per this. The BFTE 2018 was a larger scale event but even then still variation in snow depths. Less of a problem with frontal snow which stays which doesn't happen often.

Anyway temp: 0.1c snow depth:  4cm approx with some thawing.

These things happen elsewhere too - for example, look at lake effect snow in upstate New York, where some staggering falls tail off to barely a covering within a few tens of miles.

[alexisj9]

5 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

Yeah - The models are underestimating the cold.. basically trying to blow it away too easy which usually takes a few attempts.. John Holmes posted it earlier in the mod thread.

Yep I'm not worried, even a weak high held back a front last month, it's gonna be a fun battle, but I think the cold wind out. Models will be behind until it happens, and then lost because the low is not moving east. Best thing would be the it slides, although the models seem to think it won't at the min.

Edited February 9, 2021 by alexisj9

[pureasthedriven]

14 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

The GFS has pushed the cold back until Tuesday now - the UKMO says Monday  

The MetO updated mid and long range says nothing that suggests a return to typically mild conditions for this neck of the woods. I suspect more chances to come over the next month, although for my locale we need a whole lot of luck into March and a slightly different set up to this one, which is really only favouring localised parts of this region overall, let’s be honest. Unless light snow and snizzle is your thing, in which case it’s been boom time for most!