Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards


Captain Shortwave

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Addington
  • Weather Preferences: Love a bit of snow
  • Location: Addington
2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Yeah I think this is right, as you say if you can get a good 4-6hrs of moderate snow that will still add up to reasonably decent totals, and I can see some places that are in a good spot getting between 5-10cms with lower amounts the further west you go, maybe a couple of cms for Surrey and E.Hampshire possibly

Wow

love the sound of that

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: North London
  • Location: North London
7 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Looking at the GFS soundings I don't think we're going to get any "deep" convection initiating, The cold layer is rather shallow so cloud top heights likely to be fairly limited, so certainly no 2009/2010 streamer despite the lower level of cold. 

Having said that, I think we will see some moderate spells of snowfall embedded within a streamer which could still produce reasonable totals if it sticks over the same areas. 

gfs_2021020818_006_51.75-1.5.thumb.png.33577587aee80782be045e70953c04d3.png

This is ridiculous now

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Worthing, West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Anything unusual
  • Location: Worthing, West Sussex

Missing out on all the decent snowfall, I can’t help but think of the raging thunderstorms northern France are going to get in the summer.

Edited by tomp456
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Guildford, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, dry & sunny
  • Location: Guildford, Surrey
9 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Looking at the GFS soundings I don't think we're going to get any "deep" convection initiating, The cold layer is rather shallow so cloud top heights likely to be fairly limited, so certainly no 2009/2010 streamer despite the lower level of cold. 

Having said that, I think we will see some moderate spells of snowfall embedded within a streamer which could still produce reasonable totals if it sticks over the same areas. 

gfs_2021020818_006_51.75-1.5.thumb.png.33577587aee80782be045e70953c04d3.png

Good point, unlikely that we'll see a streamer anywhere near as strong as 2009 (25-50 cm!). There's more to it than just 850 hPa temps. 

Edited by Stabilo19
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sittingbourne Kent
  • Location: Sittingbourne Kent

Right no late one for me, I can’t see much more developing to be honest. Any showers I suspect will be very light. It was good while it lasted. ⛄️?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
1 minute ago, Howie said:

This is ridiculous now

Probably looking at max precip rates around 1-2cm an hour, perhaps 3cm at the core. If you get stuck under that for 4 hours that's a potential 12cm of snowfall, so it's not 'over" by any means and still more than I think most of us could hope for. 

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Penryhncoch, Wales
  • Location: Penryhncoch, Wales

Just popped outside before bed and took the final depth reading..was pleasantly surprised.

Can't remember when it was that deep, probably about 3 or 4 years ago.

Hope those that are expecting the snow tonight get more than dustings

 

 

20210208_225754.jpg

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.
6 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Yeah I think this is right, as you say if you can get a good 4-6hrs of moderate snow that will still add up to reasonably decent totals, and I can see some places that are in a good spot getting between 5-10cms with lower amounts the further west you go, maybe a couple of cms for Surrey and E.Hampshire possibly

It’s got a few hours of polystyrene balls written all over it I feel!

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Probably looking at max precip rates around 1-2cm an hour, perhaps 3cm at the core. If you get stuck under that for 4 hours that's a potential 12cm of snowfall, so it's not 'over" by any means and still more than I think most of us could hope for. 

Where’s the likely areas it may hit?, I looked back as I thought somebody had posted a chart earlier but couldn’t find it 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Horley, near Gatwick
  • Location: Horley, near Gatwick
2 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Probably looking at max precip rates around 1-2cm an hour, perhaps 3cm at the core. If you get stuck under that for 4 hours that's a potential 12cm of snowfall, so it's not 'over" by any means and still more than I think most of us could hope for. 

I had brilliant fun with the kids on 24th Jan with 4cms. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Snow and more Snow!
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
9 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Air can only rise into air that's colder aloft, there's a layer of "milder" air aloft which would prevent air parcels rising beyond that point, so convection is likely to be shallow as a result. 

I put the word milder in brackets because it's still sub zero, but warmer than the air below it.

NOSE.png

Still fancying Medway overnight? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
6 minutes ago, UKSupercell said:

Sweet FA for us in East Hants I assume again, yeah? 

But I'm starting to think you've nailed this week for our parts. Perhaps Saturday and this front from the SW will deliver? 

Some of it may well make it , though that is uncertain at this point of course. I think for us though it will be a case of having realistic expectations. Do I think we can get a dusting. Absolutely. Do i think we can squeeze a few cms out of it, possible. Do I see a big snow event for us. Not at all.

As for later this week, I reckon that the fronts will not get even within a couple of counties of us and they will decay long before reaching our neck of the woods. ICON tries but it is the only model even remotely close at the moment that I can see. This cold spell will go out one of two ways. It will either eventually morph into a SW with little to no snow due to the long SW fetch, or it will eventually evolve into either a cold dry high or another easterly. Hopefully its the latter but that has reduced in odds somewhat today.

So a small amount of snow tonight, maybe another small window for another small snowfall tomorrow night, and then probably dry and cold for the next 5-7 days.

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sittingbourne Kent
  • Location: Sittingbourne Kent
2 minutes ago, throwoff said:

Still fancying Medway overnight? 

Nope I think we are pretty much done. Few light showers but I suspect that’s it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Just now, throwoff said:

Still fancying Medway overnight? 

Winds still look favourable, weak surface convergence begins to really dig in 12-1am so I think 1-2am onwards is a good bet. Should hopefully begin to see signs of convection building within the next hour.

Winds shift more easterly through the morning putting London into the game, if we're lucky we'll catch the edge of that too..

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Snow and more Snow!
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Some of it may well make it , though that is uncertain at this point of course. I think for us though it will be a case of having realistic expectations. Do I think we can get a dusting. Absolutely. Do i think we can squeeze a few cms out of it, possible. Do I see a big snow event for us. Not at all.

As for later this week, I reckon that the fronts will not get even within a couple of counties of us and they will decay long before reaching our neck of the woods. ICON tries but it is the only model even remotely close at the moment that I can see. This cold spell will go out one of two ways. It will either eventually morph into a SW with little to no snow due to the long SW fetch, or it will eventually evolve into either a cold dry high or another easterly. Hopefully its the latter but that has reduced in odds somewhat today.

So a small amount of snow tonight, maybe another small window for another small snowfall tomorrow night, and then probably dry and cold for the next 5-7 days.

Any chance of a doodle of what you foresee coming up as streamers tonight’?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Snow and more Snow!
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
4 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Winds still look favourable, weak surface convergence begins to really dig in 12-1am so I think 1-2am onwards is a good bet. Should hopefully begin to see signs of convection building within the next hour.

Winds shift more easterly through the morning putting London into the game, if we're lucky we'll catch the edge of that too..

Sounds good to me! Think I’ll get a few hours sleep

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Takeley, Bishop's Stortford, CM22, 104m(340ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Anything extreme!
  • Location: Takeley, Bishop's Stortford, CM22, 104m(340ft) ASL

Something is starting in the estuary /North Sea. Several streamers? 

Please give me hope? Please. Please.

(knows he'll be in a massive gap between two...)

 

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Mill Corner East Sussex, 55m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow,thunder,tornados
  • Location: Mill Corner East Sussex, 55m asl

There's no way im staying up, streamer or not, besides im not lucky enough for that

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Takeley, Bishop's Stortford, CM22, 104m(340ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Anything extreme!
  • Location: Takeley, Bishop's Stortford, CM22, 104m(340ft) ASL
3 minutes ago, snowrye said:

There's no way im staying up, streamer or not, besides im not lucky enough for that

Ditto. Bed calling, and I'm on baby watch so no proper window twitching tonight. 

See you all tomorrow for more radar fun

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny Days and a little Snow.
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL

That yellow/red blob on the radar been around for sometime, off the tip of Ramsgate, Hopefully the Dragon releasing the flames!....And I don't mean Heat.

Edited by Kent Blizzard
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16 Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 29 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Difficult travel conditions as the Easter break begins

    Low Nelson is throwing wind and rain at the UK before it impacts mainland Spain at Easter. Wild condtions in the English Channel, and more rain and lightning here on Thursday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...