South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards

[lottiekent]

6 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Yep that was lovely, and looking at radar perhaps a lot more behind it, hopefully it should pep up a bit.

Covered in the footprints with that short, sharp burst. Sky that deep orange colour you only get with snow too.

[wintermaster]

10 minutes ago, Marie said:

Watching rain today and is the ppn that is going through Crawley coming my way through Brighton ? Sorry I’m really rubbish at working it out

It’s coming down here. I hope you get lucky. 

[john mac1]

Decent breaks in the cloud here now. Hopefully bodes well for later on. 

[Jackski4]

 

1 minute ago, KDME said:

I thought that was it for tonight...

 

No sir!

[Marie]

1 minute ago, wintermaster said:

It’s coming down here. I hope you get lucky. 

Thank you , think it looks like it’s losing intensity though 

[Jackski4]

4 minutes ago, Southender said:

Need to get rid of the stratus over my head first!

Clear skies here heading your way.

[Mark]

I'm not getting my, or your, hopes up, but it's really building in the North Sea!

 

Ok, I am... 

[Team Jo]

Radar definitely piquing my interest with the shower activity starting to push in. Let’s see where it gets us!

[kold weather]

8 minutes ago, Southender said:

Need to get rid of the stratus over my head first!

Im just not feeling anything too impressive, I know thats not hugely scientific mind you!

I don't know its hard to say as I've seen these types of events multiple times on radar before and usually you can kind of tell from the radar by this point if whether your going to see something big, or just so-so.

There is a lot of convection out there but its still all shallow and its all well spread out still. Usually in streamers you'd see a more defined band coming in from the ENE, this just looks a little generalized for my taste and too spread out rather than a condensed area of stronger convection.

Also worth noting the wind direction for any deeper convection is still more NE over much of the SE. Shallow stuff should carry on a ENE wind. 

 

Edited February 8, 2021 by kold weather

[snowbob]

Hoping the Thames fires up

Just a few cm would be nice

maybe some thunder snow 

ha ha

if only

[lassie23]

1 minute ago, Marie said:

Thank you , think it looks like it’s losing intensity though 

Is it still snowing there. clear skies here.

[pureasthedriven]

3 minutes ago, wintermaster said:

It’s coming down here. I hope you get lucky. 

Putting the local into localised that, jeesh... 

[sunnijim]

Keep an eye out for a 'bent back' channel streamer.

It may struggle to get this far West,but as winds veer more Easterly later we could see a streamer forming just off the coast and arcing along the coast.

Edited February 8, 2021 by sunnijim

[Marie]

1 minute ago, lassie23 said:

Is it still snowing there. clear skies here.

No ,has been snowing very slightly against the lamppost but a flake every 5 mins

[lassie23]

Just now, Marie said:

No ,has been snowing very slightly against the lamppost but a flake every 5 mins

Still worth it lol

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, sunnijim said:

Keep an eye out for a 'bent back' channel streamer.

It may struggle to get this far West,but as winds veer more Easterly later we could see a streamer forming just off the coast and arcing along the coast.

I had one of those when I was in Chichester during the Feb 09 event (yes I missed it at home where it was huge!) and we managed to pull off a fairly quick fire 5cms, which was more than I could have hoped for.

[Marie]

Just now, lassie23 said:

Still worth it lol

Ha ha , I will take all I can get

[Met4Cast]

Looking at the GFS soundings I don't think we're going to get any "deep" convection initiating, The cold layer is rather shallow so cloud top heights likely to be fairly limited, so certainly no 2009/2010 streamer despite the lower level of cold. 

Having said that, I think we will see some moderate spells of snowfall embedded within a streamer which could still produce reasonable totals if it sticks over the same areas. 

[Swilly]

Same in Ringmer Marie  

Not even enough to make a snowmans head over here

[Ols500]

1 minute ago, Met4Cast said:

Looking at the GFS soundings I don't think we're going to get any "deep" convection initiating, The cold layer is rather shallow so cloud top heights likely to be fairly limited, so certainly no 2009/2010 streamer despite the lower level of cold. 

Having said that, I think we will see some moderate spells of snowfall embedded within a streamer which could still produce reasonable totals if it sticks over the same areas. 

Hi how do you see theres no deep convection is it due to wind speed ?

[UKSupercell]

15 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Whilst I am expecting a streamer to set up I'm not seeing anything remotely like Feb 09 in the works. This looks to me to be a low end to moderate event. What do I mean by that? Well I think it could well give S.Essex and N.Kent some good snows, that will likely extend towards SE London and maybe E.Surrey and Sussex.

I think there maybe a lack of energy for them to give too much beyond that point though I suspect there maybe some snow even to places further west, though amount of snow decreasing gradually.

I suppose what I'm saying is dont go to bed and expect to wake up to 6-9 inches tomorrow. Additional 6-9cms in favoured spots seems do able though.

Sweet FA for us in East Hants I assume again, yeah? 

It snowed literally all day around here today, constant very light snow, with some light bursts with actual flakes in the mid afternoon. Settled well, and minor roads around the yard and on the grass along with roofs, had a dusting. 

But I'm starting to think you've nailed this week for our parts. Perhaps Saturday and this front from the SW will deliver? 

What I will say is, this lingering snow in the far SE must be remnants of that storm Darcy or whatever. So far I've seen no streamer down here compared to NE Eng or E Scot. 

[snow blind]

7 minutes ago, Marie said:

Thank you , think it looks like it’s losing intensity though 

It’s certainly heading this way though which is a start just hope it makes it... plenty backing up behind it too.  Interesting radar watching coming up

[Met4Cast]

1 minute ago, Ols500 said:

Hi how do you see theres no deep convection is it due to wind speed ?

Air can only rise into air that's colder aloft, there's a layer of "milder" air aloft which would prevent air parcels rising beyond that point, so convection is likely to be shallow as a result. 

I put the word milder in brackets because it's still sub zero, but warmer than the air below it.

[kold weather]

2 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Looking at the GFS soundings I don't think we're going to get any "deep" convection initiating, The cold layer is rather shallow so cloud top heights likely to be fairly limited, so certainly no 2009/2010 streamer despite the lower level of cold. 

Having said that, I think we will see some moderate spells of snowfall embedded within a streamer which could still produce reasonable totals if it sticks over the same areas. 

Yeah I think this is right, as you say if you can get a good 4-6hrs of moderate snow that will still add up to reasonably decent totals, and I can see some places that are in a good spot getting between 5-10cms with lower amounts the further west you go, maybe a couple of cms for Surrey and E.Hampshire possibly

[rwtwm]

Sometimes you get those moments when you know luck just isn't with you...

Today I (along with a few others here I suspect) followed a band of showers on the radar from about 4pm. They formed around Ipswich and formed a queue about 90 miles long over the next 5 hours up until they reached the M25. Then suddenly they just... stopped.

We caught a glancing blow in the end from something that seemed to simultaneously decay along its entire length. 

*Shakes head*

Well on to the next one I guess. Are the winds turning ENE yet?