South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards

[Djdazzle]

In the mod thread, the ECM is prolonging the cold!

[Mr Brown]

REALLY need the winds to switch to ENE because it’s gonna be a repetitive cycle of bands looking primed for London and decaying over Southend. 

Edited February 8, 2021 by Mr Brown

[Djdazzle]

2 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

I wouldn’t give up hope. That frustrating warm front is moving south and shrinking away. Also the snow over Norfolk is now getting further south so hopefully more of Cambridgeshire should come into play in the next couple of hours.

So is the precipitation over Essex more down to that warm front than convection?

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Quick question - sorry I’m not too knowledgable about the behaviour of streamers... but what kind of effect would one have on Surrey/ Hants region?

[kold weather]

4 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Some time between 11pm and 3am on some models others later hoping its earlier for you 

I'm just taking a look at the latest models and it seems to me like the window is shortening and if anything the winds may stay just a little too northerly based. The Euro4 did suggest that might be the case earlier today having something closer to a mid Kent streamer instead, but obviously based further west than normal. Call it a hybrid!

Lets hope that the winds can be just a little more easterly, its close enough that it really wouldn't require much of a shift to get a more true ENE in and really kick start things.

[Mark Bayley]

9 minutes ago, Uxbridge90 said:

Looks like the northern extent is weakening so no good for our parts but looks good for S/E London

Indeed, although as @Captain Shortwave says above, as that clears showers are appearing behind (see over Norwich). We might get lucky overnight if they extend south a bit.

Edited February 8, 2021 by Mark Bayley

[dubmuffin]

4 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

I thought the wind was meant to change to more ENE?

Haven't we been talking about that since Saturday night

[Ian Docwra]

1 minute ago, Mr Brown said:

REALLY need the winds to switch to NE/E because it’s gonna be a repetitive cycle of bands looking primed for London and decaying over Southend. 

Did you mean ENE there?

[North Easterly Breeze]

If SE Essex doesn’t get 5cm out of this streamer on the radar, I will eat my hat.

[pinball wizard]

Have had a good 3-4cm top up here from that blob that kept on giving. Picked up around 4pm and lasted for 3 hours or so, most welcome. Just had a spell though where rather than flakes it was ice falling, I guess thats due to the upper warm front creating a layer where snow flakes melt then refreeze, caused a bit of drama when I heard it but am pleased to say flakeage has resumed.. Another long night of lamp post, radar and window watching. And I think if I open the front door one more time to marvel at it my Mrs may well kill me!!!

[Mr Brown]

1 minute ago, Ian Docwra said:

Did you mean ENE there?

Yes! 

[Gowon]

21 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

My winter life in a radar. Pretty much given up with this one now, next to nothing on the ground, gutted it’s been such a miserable failure here. I’d have settled for 3-5cm!

Surely that blob further east will reach you?

[wellington boot]

13 minutes ago, Darkcloud said:

Hi WB, do you think there's more to come for us? Looking at the radar but not convinced it will reach us?

Difficult to say. Clearly there are showers forming and they may eventually push further inland, but we'll still need to be lucky to get into a shower stream and stay there for any length of time. Right now I'd guess we're too far south for the most intense streamer activity, but it's just impossible to know how that's going to organise itself over the next 6-9 hours.

As I noted before, the latest FAX for Wednesday looks really promising for us with a convergence zone exactly where we want it as winds switch back towards NE'ly, but as much discussed on here, there is still time for that to change... unfortunately...

[Ian Docwra]

1 minute ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Quick question - sorry I’m not too knowledgable about the behaviour of streamers... but what kind of effect would one have on Surrey/ Hants region?

Sadly for us, unless it's a particularly vigorous one, not much.  I'm a little further E than you, but unless a strong and concerted streamer sets up it will lose potency after a few tens of miles in most cases meaning relatively little down here.

[dubmuffin]

I can hear the fat lady in the distance...

[Chris74]

Snowing here in Sheerness nice big flakes I hope it carries on overnight 

[Ols500]

1 minute ago, Ian Docwra said:

Sadly for us, unless it's a particularly vigorous one, not much.  I'm a little further E than you, but unless a strong and concerted streamer sets up it will lose potency after a few tens of miles in most cases meaning relatively little down here.

What about epsom?

[Lampostwatcher]

Norwich streamer showers setting up 

Should be good later on for more of the nothern home counties 

[Southender]

2 minutes ago, North Easterly Breeze said:

If SE Essex doesn’t get 5cm out of this streamer on the radar, I will eat my hat.

I think you will need to eat your hat mate! Looks like decaying over us and shifting south to be honest.

[Ian Docwra]

2 minutes ago, wellington boot said:

Difficult to say. Clearly there are showers forming and they may eventually push further inland, but we'll still need to be lucky to get into a shower stream and stay there for any length of time. Right now I'd guess we're too far south for the most intense streamer activity, but it's just impossible to know how that's going to organise itself over the next 6-9 hours.

As I noted before, the latest FAX for Wednesday looks really promising for us with a convergence zone exactly where we want it as winds switch back towards NE'ly, but as much discussed on here, there is still time for that to change... unfortunately...

The large area of snow over SW Essex looks to be weakening rapidly now - to be expected, but hopes picked up a little there for some photos tonight!

[Kentspur]

1.2c here worrying rise and the icy patches have now melted is it going to keep going up?

[Hotspur62]

Was really hoping the wind was going to switch to a more ENE direction but seems reluctant to do so.Think it is a case of just radar watching with a glass of Malbec and see what happens.Would love another top up tonight but not so positive it will happen now for Orpington/Locksbottom/Bromley area now.We will find out in next 5 hours.Good luck to those who have already had a good dollop in last couple hours and to the rest of the SE Thread.

 

stay safe

[throwoff]

1 minute ago, Chris74 said:

Snowing here in Sheerness nice big flakes I hope it carries on overnight 

Brilliant news, if it’s got to you it must be 20/30 mins to Medway 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Wash streamer has been an absolute machine today! Has managed to spurt out showers now as far as Swansea! Still coming down hard and road surfaces have now been totally covered again. 

Cannot wait until the morning to see the totals I get. I’ll be out at 5AM! 

[fulham snow]

1 minute ago, Ols500 said:

What about epsom?

Probably a few flakes like the last few days as evaporating very quickly