South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards

[Paul Sherman]

9 minutes ago, kold weather said:

With regard to wind direction as well as shower direction, we need to remember that its not the surface flow that will dictate the direction but the flow a little above out heads. Current flow at 850hpa is thus:

Given the convection is quite thin I'd guess at the moment, we don't need to go high for a steering current, but in deeper convection 700mbs+ maybe more useful. I'm sure Paul S could give a better explanation though as its key in storm chasing!!

Usually there isn;t much difference but at times there can be. Yesterday evening was one of those days where the lower flow was near due north (NNE) but the airflow higher up was ENE/E, hence why the shower bands shifted westwards as the forcing at higher levels was forced Westwards but kept moving SSW on the lower airflow currents.

 

Yh what did us over here in 2009 was the differing wind direction at 700hpa down this end of the Estuary with a NNE Steering wind creating frictional drag into the Estuary (at our end) whereas 20 miles further west the 700mb winds were ENE and also cloud tops rose upto 600mb, plain and simple the showers formed too close to the Estuary shore and not 50-100 miles further out and scuppered the coasts with an Inversion layer. I always look to see where the convergence lines at 700mb to 600mb are setting up in these instances and where the streamlines are concurrent to where the coast and land is. Its crucial in these situations.

[bluebell]

40 minutes ago, JamesL said:

My 76 year old father snow blading today in Newnham, Kent. 

They’ve had around 4” over the last 24 hours. Temp is -0.8 there right now 

V jealous indeed as I look out over green fields in the valleys, S Wales 

Oh well we’ve done ok for snow so far here so glad the SE are joining in! 

Nice style, Dave the Rocket Ryding... almost!!

[TEITS]

Just a dusting so far which is disappointing. Still the latest fax charts/Euro 4 are brilliant for my area.

 

[Ols500]

2 minutes ago, Bazza118 said:

very heavy snow shower at the moment, and some larger flakes, the road is covered again now.

thats crazy completly dry herE!!

[The Beast From The East]

53 minutes ago, lewis clark said:

Southeast is full of it, started last night and has brought more snow here....

Still snowing here since I woke up and a fairly decent covering. Very icy under the fresh snow doing the school run earlier.

[Dbarb]

Winter wonderland here this morning❄

[snowking]

I'm not too sure if this has been posted yet, but very interesting FAX charts for the region tomorrow, first of all across the far North of the region:

And then a bit further south across East Anglia, running into the west of London and then further south:

Now I'll be honest, my experience with convergence zones on FAX charts are that they tend to shift position through until around 12-18 hours before hand, so I'm not getting my hopes up here just yet. However the risk clearly there. 

They're aligned pretty well to the EURO4 at the moment:

Worth bearing in mind with these that as we have seen recently, even high res models struggle to model the overall amount of precipitation.

Signs though of something through the Thames estuary too, and noticable that the EURO4 is slightly south of the FAX chart with the streamer through EA tonight:

Will be interesting to see how (or even if!) this sets up tonight. Arome pretty well aligned with EURO4 too:

In any case, where it does set up, you can see the potential for some very large totals:

And a slightly more zoomed in look:

Looks to be that zone through North Norfolk and into N Cambs that hits the jackpot.

Plenty more of interest over the next couple of days

[Number 23]

Starting to look like a proper cold spell has hit here now, as the light stuff we're getting is slowly accumulating where it didn't yesterday. 

If we can squeeze a couple of cms today would be nice. Hope some of it gets to those with little at the moment. 

[kold weather]

6 minutes ago, BarnetBlizzard said:

Hi mate, do you when thing might become more favorable for us in North london? Cheers 

If the wind stays more ENE then you guys will probably need to watch for more general convection moving through Suffolk. The high resolution models do have some activity coming through regardless of any streamer stuff further south so I'd imagine there will be snow showers coming through.

Looks to me like today there is going to be a lot of constant light snow falling. Given temperatures should hold below 0c and dew points way below 0c even light stuff will settle and add up over time.

[southbank]

1 minute ago, Paul Sherman said:

Yh what did us over here in 2009 was the differing wind direction at 700hpa down this end of the Estuary with a NNE Steering wind creating frictional drag into the Estuary (at our end) whereas 20 miles further west the 700mb winds were ENE and also cloud tops rose upto 600mb, plain and simple the showers formed too close to the Estuary shore and not 50-100 miles further out and scuppered the coasts with an Inversion layer. I always look to see where the convergence lines at 700mb to 600mb are setting up in these instances and where the streamlines are concurrent to where the coast and land is. Its crucial in these situations.

i still remember that piece you put together afterwards explaining what went wrong your end - thats the thing about this site that sometimes get lost in the ramps and tantrums that its a great place to learn and develop your knowledge. Rather than moan im more interested what happen yesterday that made the outcome different to what the models had thought and too some areas a bust - much more fun than toys throwing

[East Kent Snow Desert]

8 minutes ago, Jamie M said:

I'll pop out and properly look at the ruler in a min but the snow doesn't seem to as powdery as yesterday. 

Certainly better sized flakes today despite radar not looking that promising

[Gowon]

Morning guys.. I'm glad I cleared my car last night, so all I had to do was get in and start it 

Also, thankfully mother nature had cleared most of the snow for me by blowing it to the corners, so all I had to concentrate on was clearing the main entrances and throw some grit down. 

Here are some photos from around the school.. It's snowing moderately in Streatham atm. 

[onepingonly]

25 minutes ago, kold weather said:

It already is starting to shift, take a look at the showers over Essex and Kent and note the direction of travel. Its probably somewhere between NE and ENE at the moment.

It is going to shift around a little during the day as the steering currents are shifting around a little during the day from ENE to NE and then back to a more firm ENE some point this evening. This is due to a little low to our SE that is shifting around with a little kink in the flow on its NW side that should clear southwards which flattens the flow through to a more classic ENE which is the same further north.

Any hope for us today?

[Thunderstruck]

Morning all, got a nice covering here overnight on all surfaces, and it’s still coming down lightly.

I take back my comment from yesterday about it being a disappointment!

[Oaks]

Snow has intensified here, Sevenoaks 

[Harry's House]

Snow here at last! A light incomplete cover.

[MAF]

1 minute ago, East Kent Snow Desert said:

Certainly better sized flakes today despite radar not looking that promising

Looks like my wife's old grandparents place in Bentley Avenue. Sadly they are no longer there.

[Jamie M]

1 minute ago, East Kent Snow Desert said:

Certainly better sized flakes today despite radar not looking that promising

Dumped another cm of snow making it 7 cm here. It doesn't look to be stopping all that too soon either.

[LightningLover]

Well this certainly isn’t common around here!

Edited February 8, 2021 by LightningLover

[Matty88]

A decent 2cm covering in Ely this morning, very fine - powdery snow which is not a common occurrence in these parts!

Looking good for more top-ups through today. Currently snowing lightly with some moderate bursts at times. Overall - happy! It took it's time but the set-up has delivered. This snow should be sticking around for quite some time looking at the latest charts... 

[kold weather]

3 minutes ago, onepingonly said:

Any hope for us today?

I'd say probably light snow on and off through the day.

However there is a legitimate chance of a streamer event kicking off, doesn't look too intense but does look quite long lasting.

The Euro4 is just a little further south with it than the AROME, and the *exact* wind direction will make a big difference as to where gets snow, especially this far west, a 60 degree wind over 100 miles will end up quite a ways north of a 75 degree wind flow. Whilst at the Estruary as long as its broadly ENE it doesn't really matter since they are closer to the source.

[yamkin]

4 minutes ago, kold weather said:

If the wind stays more ENE then you guys will probably need to watch for more general convection moving through Suffolk. The high resolution models do have some activity coming through regardless of any streamer stuff further south so I'd imagine there will be snow showers coming through.

Looks to me like today there is going to be a lot of constant light snow falling. Given temperatures should hold below 0c and dew points way below 0c even light stuff will settle and add up over time.

A few days ago, you mentioned the strong possibility of streamers setting up if the winds turned to a ENE flow. Well done for a brilliant observation 

[Uxbridge90]

Brutal windchill, looks like there may have been a few flakes overnight but not really enough for a dusting. 

Ice day ahead?

Edited February 8, 2021 by Uxbridge90

[onepingonly]

Just now, kold weather said:

I'd say probably light snow on and off through the day.

However there is a legitimate chance of a streamer event kicking off, doesn't look too intense but does look quite long lasting.

The Euro4 is just a little further south with it than the AROME, and the *exact* wind direction will make a big difference as to where gets snow, especially this far west, a 60 degree wind over 100 miles will end up quite a ways north of a 75 degree wind flow. Whilst at the Estruary as long as its broadly ENE it doesn't really matter since they are closer to the source.

Cool thanks, we have a light dusting here. -2.6c so anything will stay.

[mb018538]

3 minutes ago, Matty88 said:

A decent 2cm covering in Ely this morning, very fine - powdery snow which is not a common occurrence in these parts!

Looking good for more top-ups through today. Currently snowing lightly with some moderate bursts at times. Overall - happy! It took it's time but the set-up has delivered. This snow should be sticking around for quite some time looking at the latest charts... 

sounds similar to here. Been snowing all morning, but very fine too and. Isnt massively intense which isn’t making the totals go up too far!

Edited February 8, 2021 by mb018538