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Model thread discussion - cold spell looming


Message added by Paul,

It's busy right now, so please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 
For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads
And for more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.
There's now also a cold spell chat and discusison thread.

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Posted
  • Location: Nottingham
  • Location: Nottingham
    Just now, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

    The signs are creeping in, even if one looks at the T144 of the UKMO, when I looked at it I thought that undercutting could follow and it wouldn’t surprise me if it starts showing that HP further west.

    GFS starting to come back into showing blocking and another easterly.  Should be interesting Model watching again over next couple of days.

     

    BFTP

    Just when you thought it was safe to stop hammering F5.

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    Posted
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
    2 hours ago, Alderc said:

    Wow look at that little beauty in there, P16 would be record breaking 21/22C. Yes please lets start spring quickly.

    If you are looking at around the 22nd and  the >10 uppers, then i think it is P14 and 18 - Unfortunately they might both big inversions based on 2m temps so potentially rather grey, cold and rubbish.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wrexham,NE Wales - 89m
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Sunny Summers/Cold Wintry Winters
  • Location: Wrexham,NE Wales - 89m
    12 minutes ago, swebby said:

    If you are looking at around the 22nd and  the >10 uppers, then i think it is P14 and 18 - Unfortunately they might both big inversions based on 2m temps so potentially rather grey, cold and rubbish.

    This is the run he's talking about from the midnight run

    GFSP16EU00_276_1.thumb.png.c7e0e7f6efdaa32c844adc9c51c8fb4f.pngGFSP16EU00_276_2.thumb.png.83883f951b2de25b35182136d4f50b16.png

     

    Very mild however I would prefer to wait till Mid-March to make the most of the warming sun.

    As a contrast to keep everyone happy here is some something of a colder premise with the ingredients for a greenland high I essentially picked a decent one out the bag.

    Highly doubt this is what it will look like come the 21st

    GFSP03EU06_270_1.thumb.png.ed11efbfbe6aa68666677c0a69bdfed1.pngGFSP03EU06_270_2.thumb.png.a1268020731866d008d4671c11bd064f.png

     

    But we shall see later whether these are the types of scenarios we should be looking for later on because the attempt at a Scandi High failed or whether maybe this would achievable by some form of retrogression from a Scandi Block we shall have to see with the MJO into phase 7 this could be possible and these are the permutations to look for should early attempts for scandi blocking fail. Look for a UK high to retrogress north. 

    Edited by Summerstorm
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    Posted
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
    4 minutes ago, Summerstorm said:

    This is the run he's talking about from the midnight run

    GFSP16EU00_276_1.thumb.png.c7e0e7f6efdaa32c844adc9c51c8fb4f.pngGFSP16EU00_276_2.thumb.png.83883f951b2de25b35182136d4f50b16.png

     

    Very mild however I would prefer to wait till Mid-March to make the most of the warming sun.

    As a contrast to keep everyone happy here is some something of a colder premise with the ingredients for a greenland high I essentially picked a decent one out the bag.

    Highly doubt this is what it will look like come the 21st

    GFSP03EU06_270_1.thumb.png.ed11efbfbe6aa68666677c0a69bdfed1.pngGFSP03EU06_270_2.thumb.png.a1268020731866d008d4671c11bd064f.png

    Ah yes - my bad, i've been looking at the 06z ensembles!  Those two charts you have posted with a long fetch southerly would certainly be more spring like.

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
    1 hour ago, Day_9 said:

    Who said it’s all over.  This would be so cold and snowy

    E55E9BAC-ED0B-4757-99D8-73025D8E2B83.png

    Sorry to put a dampener on things but that’s cold but dry for most, similar to today & tomorrow . It could deliver some flurries to the far south east and of course it’s pure fantasy so won’t be like that and could be a more potent easterly. Personally I’d like a proper under cut or slider and then into March / April a potent northerly can deliver. 

    98439515-3CB3-408D-9A1B-2C7EDC67C85B.png

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    Looking at the ensembles Our next easterly chance is probably just out of ECM view (day  11) but let’s hope we hear that phrase “Day 10 has potential “ soon ...

    92539E32-6628-48EC-BE98-718D9CEFDC92.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

    A heads up folks.I will shortly be opening a new thread ready for the 12z runs.

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    Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

    Ok this is now locked.New thread is here.

     

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