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Model thread discussion - cold spell looming


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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
    6 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

    It is interesting to note that despite all the publicly available ops going mild this morning that Thomas on the BBC week ahead suggested that margins were very fine and that the slightest bit of amplitude could lead to the mild not getting here at all.

    Exactly how I’m reading it BB. If the timings slightly off or some amplitude has been under-estimated, it could be enough to make a difference here.

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    Whilst some are looking W at the low pressure for a possible snowy breakdown. Im looking in the other direction. Could it be that no fronts will get anywhere near at the end of the week (except S

    Wow, it only took GFS one suite to catch up! Wasn't expecting that. This has to be the best period of model watching in the 15 years I've been doing it.

    This is the moment for me when the action really begins. The cold pattern was secured days ago, but only now are we close enough to start forecasting the snow with any confidence. 5 or 6 days with pot

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
    12 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    Last minute miracles normally happen with the Atlantic moving in from the sw where they underestimate the strength of the block .

    Here it’s from the west with a bloated low  . I’d be shocked if the surface cold can last beyond Sunday unless the Arpege has pulled a rabbit out of the hat .

    Just catching up on the thread. Not sure I understand the arpege reference as it seems similar to all other runs?

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    Posted
  • Location: Harrogate, Pannal Ash, 179m
  • Location: Harrogate, Pannal Ash, 179m
    3 minutes ago, Vadoseflame said:

    I mean he is right.. wouldn’t take much adjustment,

     Time will tell.

    What do you mean by wouldn't take much adjustment? We need 3 models to make a complete 180deg turn and change the whole pattern. As long as ECM and GFS both signaled for consecutive runs the march of the Siberian trough directly to SE Europe it was game over for us here. Even if they flip somehow, they will just shift to far east the deep cold pool. Mild or milder weather is inevitable until at least 22nd/23rd Feb. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Helensburgh,22 miles from Glasgow
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,snow and....a bit more snow
  • Location: Helensburgh,22 miles from Glasgow
    27 minutes ago, Don said:

    Amazing how rapidly things have changed in as little as 48 hours!  I think we've had our chance now for this winter as we approach mid February sadly!

    Surely there’s plenty time for snow and cold.... was 2018 Beast not end Feb?

    One of the biggest snowfalls in my area that I’ve seen was mid March 2006 too.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    5 minutes ago, DR(S)NO said:

    Surely there’s plenty time for snow and cold.... was 2018 Beast not end Feb?

    One of the biggest snowfalls in my area that I’ve seen was mid March 2006 too.

     

    Yes you are correct.  However, after mid February the chances for sustained cold/snow does reduce.  Of course it is possible though as March 2013 and February/March 2018 illustrated.

    Edited by Don
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    Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sunny crisp frosty days & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
    2 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

    The pub run has a decent snow event on Sunday. My own personal preference now would be for this to verify and then be able to move on from this particular cold spell after that.👍

    7001FA3A-DE4E-4967-B0F1-A06E21D0841C.thumb.png.b60d98de1e91311edf6b2be25d71d462.png187C04CC-C35B-468D-8626-AACE9C8F7A05.thumb.png.998eb8c0039373aa2522b4c8505c85ce.png

     

    Fully agree mate, I as many other still waiting on lying snow in this incredibly frustrating Winter. A snowy breakdown that lasts even just several hours would do me and end a 3 year wait. Still think the cold may hold on longer than shown. 👍

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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
    1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

    Is the 18z further east then peeps?!!

    It's started off with the Scandi high a little further north but the pattern still was pushed too far east by 168. Decent snow event Sunday though.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    9 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

    Is the 18z further east then peeps?!!

    Yes.  But it might not be the end of the story, here 18z T156 v 12z T162:

    C6A75D25-7A3D-4113-84D1-3B1BC2A96353.thumb.jpeg.13a6900b99497f5ed4446f8cb11baef9.jpegC81205A1-81A1-4751-A67D-7C9A344BD41E.thumb.jpeg.011ff831a23b979c081d0881f0eedfa8.jpeg

    May orient itself differently from now on...?  Actually system might give more WAA in the end?

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    Posted
  • Location: Wigan,North west England 38m asl
  • Location: Wigan,North west England 38m asl
    4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    Yes.  But it might not be the end of the story, here 18z T152 v 12z T158:

    C6A75D25-7A3D-4113-84D1-3B1BC2A96353.thumb.jpeg.13a6900b99497f5ed4446f8cb11baef9.jpegC81205A1-81A1-4751-A67D-7C9A344BD41E.thumb.jpeg.011ff831a23b979c081d0881f0eedfa8.jpeg

    May orient itself differently from now on...?  Actually system might give more WAA in the end?

    Be interesting to see how that would turn out!

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    The upstream trough is more progressive this time but because the high is located more favourably the GFS still manages two wintry frontal bands , a mix of snow , freezing rain .

    Much is made of the high sinking but it’s really the bloated low which confounds the problem . If you had that elongated earlier and more negatively tilted things could turn out a bit better but the models are set on this feature .

    The GFS 18 hrs run still lifts the surface cold out but a little later than the Euros .

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales

    Some good WAA just east of Iceland and a small area of heights building in Greenland. 

    C55E37BC-5533-48C9-923F-E87EF75342D7.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    GFS 18z T216:

    687C4049-9D0F-4837-BFBB-65CC4478B416.thumb.png.20583e95fa2be0525d0dbb9702ca023e.png

    That big low in the atlantic, it’s been on every model for days, but it ain’t coming this way, so what does it do, in situ it provides WAA, and on this run that is heading in part to Greenland - one to watch...

    Edited by Mike Poole
    Corrected wrong chart
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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    Welcome back GFSp...we have missed you ! 

     

    56D5ED90-D6C3-48CC-9BCA-8E2E73E88651.png

    B1F9ED40-190A-4A31-AC0B-650304D52327.png

    27FE5CFC-0144-48A4-8D60-7089BF0683F3.png

    Edited by Tim Bland
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    you know what's going to happen here don't you people - its written in the stars!

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    Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks.81 absl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks.81 absl
    Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

    you know what's going to happen here don't you people - its written in the stars!

    ?????????

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    Bizarre ! The GEFS still show a decent amount of solutions that are better than the op run.

    You’d think they’d be jumping ship by now given the other outputs and the ECM ensembles .

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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    22 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

    Mine would be for it to get in stall and then get pushed back west by the cold 🙂

    The updated 120hr fax chart may just bring the dream. It doesn't go with the ukmo 120hr or ecm 120hr charts. It stalls much more. I'm hoping that the human input will be highly invaluable in this situation and the computers struggle. 

    fax120s.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

    Cross polar flow here.

    image.thumb.png.712586e1ddbaacd3a57eed94c685eb32.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    GFSp also gives snow all day Monday in some central and eastern areas. This is the best outcome I’ve seen so far regarding the breakdown!  

    A8AD4BC7-207B-4DE0-B7E2-CE9A36C9DD83.png

    1086706D-B159-4B10-BE7F-C1BFF0DB41FF.png

    115412DC-3F4E-494D-9A4B-84B8274DC106.png

    57B1A7D3-7055-433F-AD92-319710F4E124.png

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    Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex
    1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

    Bizarre ! The GEFS still show a decent amount of solutions that are better than the op run.

    You’d think they’d be jumping ship by now given the other outputs and the ECM ensembles .

    Normally I'd have thrown in the towel by now, but I just think its worth holding fire until the morning. If we get dire morning runs then that's probably the final nail but this elongated high from Scandi southwards just looks a bit odd to me.

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    Message added by Paul,

    It's busy right now, so please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 
    For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads
    And for more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.
    There's now also a cold spell chat and discusison thread.

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