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Whilst some are looking W at the low pressure for a possible snowy breakdown. Im looking in the other direction. Could it be that no fronts will get anywhere near at the end of the week (except S

This is the moment for me when the action really begins. The cold pattern was secured days ago, but only now are we close enough to start forecasting the snow with any confidence. 5 or 6 days with pot

Wow, it only took GFS one suite to catch up! Wasn't expecting that. This has to be the best period of model watching in the 15 years I've been doing it.

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    51 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

    I doubt the front this weekend will 'end' the cold, for most areas away from SW-W-farNW; more probable by about day 10.

    Caveat is, cold surface highs are notoriously hard to replace; quite often 2 or 3 attempts before cold surface air is completely replaced. 

    Exactly, and last week we both doubted this cold would end on Thursday as the then current GFS charts were predicting, so i dont think we are that far apart.. 🙂

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    Posted
  • Location: Oxford
  • Location: Oxford
    9 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

    Longer term,beyond the next 5 days or so it is a tricky call to make on whether we change the pattern to more Atlantic based or hold on to sufficient blocking where we could return to a colder set up.Fine margins on this balance of power as they say.

    In the shorter term things are looking well supported by all the models.They all expect the Atlantic will make some inroads into the west of the UK at the weekend,although it does look like a slow and stuttering process.

    The ukmo output shows the Atlantic flow starting to head in behind the fronts as they struggle against the block.T120 fax and raw t144.

    2004315616_fax120s(1).thumb.gif.71a4d448908191623851cc8b1e782cda.gif918082903_UE144-21(1).thumb.gif.939504cfe16cc9aed0a79c8ebd87ed93.gif

    The other models look in pretty good agreement at this stage.Looking beyond those and the gefs for Warks.

     1259650320_8509th.thumb.gif.12eef8411d61e0aaac8a3d6ac8c6981e.gif

    It's hard to argue against this trend of something of a warm up in the uppers.

    For next week looking through the means there is some varying on the placement of the high to our east with the latest GFS 06z mean run showing the high further north at day 8 which would keep the flow more continental. 

    The ideas in the operational runs generally  though are to sink the high towards Europe .

    I think there is still much to be resolved next week as there is the nagging uncertainty of how far north the ridging towards Scandinavia maintains.Usually there is a tipping point in this type of pattern whereby the high sinks so far into Europe that any ridging will eventually topple because of the energy flowing over the top.There is that doubt with the weaker northern jet though this year whether this will happen so easily.

    Currently then the models do indicate frontal inroads into the west at the weekend possibly a band of snow before it fades.After that I think the balance of power is still to be decided further on.

    Big question mark in regards to Atlantic push,northern blocking could hold its ground possible 

    extreme west / southwest uptick in temperatures,as per Met office 30 day.very good chart watching 

    will be all over the place I reckon.

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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
    11 minutes ago, Purga said:

    UKMET latest certainly not going for a 'done deal' for return to mild. Uncertainty still reigns as to the eastward progression of precipitation rain/snow etc but mostly wrt the West of the UK.

    Still a way to go and will be interesting to see the 12zs - no rest for us wicked coldies yet!

    Its very much,  models v the met office at the moment, I thought they may at least add in a line saying "uncertainty over how far the milder air gets in" but they have kept it to western areas only 

    Like you say the 12z runs will be interesting to see how/if they are going to perform the great escape 

    Edited by Battleground Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    UKV pushes the front right across on Sat with a mix of snow sleet & freezing rain (yellow)

    B9745E7A-D903-4F74-8F13-6FAC7120BEE3.jpeg

    B70DC74C-05BD-4D31-B25E-39FE545F9A7C.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
    30 minutes ago, craigore said:

    2 days ago they were adamant the cold would win out.

    The fact that there not so sure now tells me the writing is on the wall for the coldies.

    After all the Atlantic winning would be the natural outcome in most cases.. And the high is sinking 

    A few days ago all the Mods were showing Northern blocking right across Northern latitudes 

    Wheres it gone ? 

    Yes deepest FI but the Control shows it's hard to get rid of a block

    image.thumb.png.70dc0e43cd1c828ea2d7ba00837845b6.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Ramsgate,East Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: BEASTERLYS
  • Location: Ramsgate,East Kent.
    2 minutes ago, MJB said:

    Yes deepest FI but the Control shows it's hard to get rid of a block

    image.thumb.png.70dc0e43cd1c828ea2d7ba00837845b6.png

    Actually wth late February sun and a gentle southerly that will feel quite spring like one would think.

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    Posted
  • Location: Pershore
  • Location: Pershore

    A bunch of posts have been removed as arguing over whether the met office forecasts should be discussed in here definitely doesn't equate to model discussion. Fwiw, mentioning the met office is not an issue, when it's in the context of actually discussing the model output. But, if you just want to post solely about the Met Office forecast with little or no model discussion included, then this isn't the thread for it. Fortunately though, there is a dedicated thread for those discussions here:

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Cornwall
  • Location: Cornwall
    6 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

    Icon at 102, another tiny adjustment west,

    I've marked up what we need to happen to get us back on track to epic output and not just regular surface cold.

    iconnh-0-102 (6)~2.png

    It's still not enough though it these tiny steps to the west it could?

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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
    3 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

    It's still not enough though it these tiny steps to the west it could?

    Untill we get the Atlantic modelled over the UK inside 72 hours we still have time.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cornwall
  • Location: Cornwall
    2 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

    Untill we get the Atlantic modelled over the UK inside 72 hours we still have time.

    So to be honest we only got one more day to see if things can improve on other words 

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    Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
    1 minute ago, Skullzrulerz said:

    So to be honest we only got one more day to see if things can improve on other words 

    Can't see it myself 

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    Posted
  • Location: Cornwall
  • Location: Cornwall
    5 minutes ago, MJB said:

    Can't see it myself 

    If the UKMO goes back to a more colder outlook then maybe take notice but as things stand it's looks unlikely

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    Just now, Battleground Snow said:

    Another little improvement with WAA at 96!

    Probably not going to be enough again, but it's small progess

    gfsnh-0-96 (5).png

    Looks better at 102 hours!!!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
    2 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

    UKMO at 144, better for sure than earlier.

     

    UN144-21 (1) (15).gif

    Take that chart add some more negative tilt on that Atlantic low and suddenly its looking pretty good!

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    Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
    1 minute ago, Snowman. said:

    Take that chart add some more negative tilt on that Atlantic low and suddenly its looking pretty good!

    High is already collapsing at day 5 by day 6 its done

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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

    Cold relaxation is coming....but for how long and by how much.  I think there’s some resolving to do yet...and I’m not wholly convinced of a total breakdown....not yet anyway.

    06z t144

    image.thumb.png.6493603334c499713649e0e83e3977ff.png

    12z t144

    image.thumb.png.90886d4b99413c12eab5ff45a49d7dc5.png
     

    I know which I prefer.  As I said I anticipated some wild model output from last day or two...let’s see where we are in 2 days

     

    BFTP

     

     

    Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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    Message added by Paul,

    It's busy right now, so please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 
    For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads
    And for more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.
    There's now also a cold spell chat and discusison thread.

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