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Model thread discussion - cold spell looming


Message added by Paul,

It's busy right now, so please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 
For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads
And for more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.
There's now also a cold spell chat and discusison thread.

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Posted
  • Location: Cornwall
  • Location: Cornwall
    5 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

    Better WAA going up on this run, probably not going to be enough, but nice to see, FI is definitely at 72-96

    ECM and ukmo and show the breakdown at 120, so there is still a small chance they are getting this wrong.

    gfsnh-0-114 (7).png

    Better then nothing but we need to start seeing a improvement in models sooner then later 

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    Posted
  • Location: nw hampshire salisbury plain
  • Location: nw hampshire salisbury plain
    39 minutes ago, Don said:

    Well, looks like that could be it folks!  The MJO no longer looks to be very effective either, so I think once this cold spell (which I think has been the most disappointing I have ever known!!) is over, the rest of February may not be up to much.  Perhaps time to look forward to spring?!

    Did you work at Howard tenens ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
    Just now, Skullzrulerz said:

    Better then nothing but we need to start seeing a improvement in models sooner then later 

    The met office update later is probably one the most important ones for a while, not only because of the models they use, but because of the human professional expertise that goes into them, they will take into account past historical event like this I am sure.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    1 hour ago, MJB said:

    Then lets get this in and have some sort of snowy breakdown

    image.thumb.png.47f19c944d2aa2cf5735817824015302.png

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    That's a hammering for some 

    Aye, primarily for those who have been hammered already. 

    Hopefully the cold holds on better and lets Ireland join in.

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    Posted
  • Location: LOWESTOFT (most Easterly town in British Isles)
  • Location: LOWESTOFT (most Easterly town in British Isles)

    Lots of clutching at straws on here - but tbf, why not?!

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
    1 minute ago, PUTIN said:

    Lots of clutching at straws on here - but tbf, why not?!

    We love straws! Lol

    The thing is this is a damage limitation exercise now , there’s not going to be a renewed deep cold easterly within ten days . So it’s about maxing out as much snow whilst the UK has that embedded cold at the surface and  with northern France and the Low Countries having those low dew points and cold conditions on which the UK will be drawing its flow ahead of any Atlantic fronts.

    The odds favour a return to milder conditions but can the UK extend that by  a few extra days and at least see some snow during the change over .

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
    1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

    We love straws! Lol

    The thing is this is a damage limitation exercise now , there’s not going to be a renewed deep cold easterly within ten days . So it’s about maxing out as much snow whilst the UK has that embedded cold at the surface and  with northern France and the Low Countries having those low dew points and cold conditions on which the UK will be drawing its flow ahead of any Atlantic fronts.

    The odds favour a return to milder conditions but can the UK extend that by  a few extra days and at least see some snow during the change over .

    Where do you see the next ten days going nick. Tia

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
    Just now, swfc said:

    Where do you see the next ten days going nick. Tia

    Where’s my crystal ball. Lol

    Being totally objective it’s hard to avoid a return to milder conditions or at least less cold for most of the UK. The models are in very good agreement on that but the changeover period is looking impossible to call in terms of how much snow and how protracted that might be .

    It could be a complete non event or something more substantial. I expect the UKMO are just as in the dark as the rest of us .

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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
    1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

    Where’s my crystal ball. Lol

    Being totally objective it’s hard to avoid a return to milder conditions or at least less cold for most of the UK. The models are in very good agreement on that but the changeover period is looking impossible to call in terms of how much snow and how protracted that might be .

    It could be a complete non event or something more substantial. I expect the UKMO are just as in the dark as the rest of us .

    Well I think you are most likely correct nick, I don't think some kind of Easterly is entirely dead yet.

     

    gfs-london-gb-515n-0e (1) (19)~2.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    Looking at the T138 gefs the op sits in the middle and is similar to the mean with where the 0c isotherm sits:

    gens_panel_opu6.png

    There is a cluster like the UKMO which are more progressive and a cluster holding onto the best case scenario, and a cluster in support of the op. So as we were, a new signal and gfs is trying to resolve the forcing even at this range. As for what follows, a holding pattern looks the call, trough to the west -v- mid-lat HP to the east, UK caught in the middle?

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    Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

    Pretty sure I remember a GFS run from about a week back that was delivering us a taste of spring by next week.  I often think that the GFS finds something in deep FI that it later comes back to and models with more vigour.

    Not saying it will happen, but it wouldn't surprise me if we are on a kind of seesaw at the moment where we are going to end up more towards one extreme or the other, and the models starts seeing scenarios where the  jet stream ends up being forced north and delivers us the "polar" opposite of the weather we are currently experiencing..... 

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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
    4 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

    Pretty sure I remember a GFS run from about a week back that was delivering us a taste of spring by next week.  I often think that the GFS finds something in deep FI that it later comes back to and models with more vigour.

    Not saying it will happen, but it wouldn't surprise me if we are on a kind of seesaw at the moment where we are going to end up more towards one extreme or the other, and the models starts seeing scenarios where the  jet stream ends up being forced north and delivers us the "polar" opposite of the weather we are currently experiencing..... 

    Obviously p21 knows what's going to happen,

    Seriously though, i don't think think the milder interlude is "nailed" yet as the post above indicates cold may hang on, even it does happen I think we would have further bouts of colder weather.

    gensnh-21-1-216.png

    gensnh-21-0-216.png

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    1 hour ago, johnholmes said:

    I see mushy has posted above, it would seem our views diverge a shade!

    .

     

    Oh ek, in that case you are probably nearer the mark then i am! lol.. The Atlantic may well win out, but not as rapid as the current ops suggest? That was my main point... we will see..

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    34 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

    The NetWx mr Model is certainly showing the colder air winning out as the front coming in off the Atlantic during the weekend only makes it to Ireland then shifts North and fizzles out clearing the way for High Pressure to push North behind, The weekend looks to have some of the coldest temps of this cold spell so far with a bitting S/Ely wind chill.

    1143547261_viewimage-2021-02-09T111622_824.thumb.png.4800a4d5e1b801676ec3bada72951e44.png396336838_viewimage-2021-02-09T111637_495.thumb.png.e3af247265ceb5f2730b006187683f0a.png1645320445_viewimage-2021-02-09T111843_482.thumb.png.f4003ef317eeafeeab86d89d75dd134e.png

    Yes Tim, The GFS is very good at finding long range patterns and near always the other models eventually follow suite bringing in the detail and by detail I mean a shift West or East 200ml of the High pushing North makes a massive difference to what we get at the surface..

    Assume that's rubbish for members like me who prefer snow Atlantic battles over boring cold and dry?

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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
    46 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

    Oh ek, in that case you are probably nearer the mark then i am! lol.. The Atlantic may well win out, but not as rapid as the current ops suggest? That was my main point... we will see..

    I doubt the front this weekend will 'end' the cold, for most areas away from SW-W-farNW; more probable by about day 10.

    Caveat is, cold surface highs are notoriously hard to replace; quite often 2 or 3 attempts before cold surface air is completely replaced. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    17 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

    Assume that's rubbish for members like me who prefer snow Atlantic battles over boring cold and dry?

    Lol I no what you mean, at your lucky you get that option. Snow/Atlantic battles have been rain at every attempt in the 27years I've lived in Poole/Bournemouth 

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    Posted
  • Location: Coulsdon, Surrey 147M (asl)
  • Location: Coulsdon, Surrey 147M (asl)

    The latest met office video weather forecast does mention that there is milder air trying to get into the uk at the weekend, but that there is to much uncertainty at the moment to say if this will happen. So although the models are tending to show this, i suggest that the human element might take a more pragmatic view of the speed of progress it makes if any at all.

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    Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
    1 hour ago, Battleground Snow said:

    Obviously p21 knows what's going to happen,

    Seriously though, i don't think think the milder interlude is "nailed" yet as the post above indicates cold may hang on, even it does happen I think we would have further bouts of colder weather.

    gensnh-21-1-216.png

    gensnh-21-0-216.png

    I think we will see a flip to milder weather. But I would certainly expect further shots of cold thereafter. This reminds me of winters where we used to get chances of snow into early April, and with it coming on the first weekend, I wouldn't be ruling out our chances of a white Easter this year 😃 

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    Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
    9 minutes ago, PolarWarsaw said:

    Not the best of charts this morning, although some rather dramatic responses in here. There's no sign of a Bartlett, or a raging zonal onslaught. 

    As soon as the pattern sorts itself out to our east, I think the path for the remainder of February will be sorted in one favour or another quite smoothly.

    I do think it's absolutely vital we get a snowy breakdown in before the cold does eventually work away, it will be the difference between a cold spell remembered positively or one that has been one of the biggest let downs in the Netweather internet era. When exactly has happened this week? With -12 uppers , why is snow melting in the middle of the day? Why is the wind so light? Why is all convection dying out 50 miles inland? I have to say - not just the snow, but this whole week is feeling rather lame at the minute for a vast majority of this country. I'm shocked, I was expecting to feel a bit like the BFTE part 2 this week, but it's nothing like it. 

    On the whole though, I have to say I'm shocked that people are discussing Spring already?

    These little undercurrents seem to get earlier each year. I can't decide if it's trolling or the latest reverse psychology frenzy? Winter is over in the middle of December, radiation brings us heatwaves as soon as February 15th arrives 😂. It's February the 9th, discussing Spring would be like spending July 9th hoping/expecting Autumn is arriving.

    March and late February frequently and have been for numerous years delivered the best cold/snowy spells. Given everything that's happened so far this winter, you would argue we are more likely than ever this year to be discussing winter a long way into March. I would not be surprised with everything that's going on in the world at the moment, for the weather to troll us and the general nation into an short sharp blast of 'spring' - only to dip us into a very cold and long March. We seem to end up doing this nearly every season.

    Far too early to be giving up on Winter. 

    I think you are right, but there's a big difference between mentioning the chance of springlike conditions, and declaring winter as being over.  I said earlier I think the pattern will develop in a seesaw fashion where we take turns to dip into both winter and springlike conditions.  Winter is not over, but I am becoming more pessimistic about prevailing harsh winter conditions, and leaning more towards a pattern that delivers it in short spells and snaps.

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