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Model thread discussion - cold spell looming


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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    So long as we get a snowy breakdown ...

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    Whilst some are looking W at the low pressure for a possible snowy breakdown. Im looking in the other direction. Could it be that no fronts will get anywhere near at the end of the week (except S

    Wow, it only took GFS one suite to catch up! Wasn't expecting that. This has to be the best period of model watching in the 15 years I've been doing it.

    This is the moment for me when the action really begins. The cold pattern was secured days ago, but only now are we close enough to start forecasting the snow with any confidence. 5 or 6 days with pot

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    So long as we get a snowy breakdown ...

    Sadly this is the way we don’t (as you realise)  ..... As mentioned forever, the repetitive undercut is the only way to keep the snow going 

    ec and gem again on the same page .....

    gem says it sinks .....

    Edited by bluearmy
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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    Quite a change in the NH pattern here compared to the last ECM run .

    Something BA mentioned re the runner upstream , if we can delay that so need a bit more amplitude to make that sharper and slower to exit Canada .

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Location: Godalming
    10 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

    Actually I preferred it. Gives more chance for heights to build north and suck in more cold air from the east!

    Ive been saying on and off for a while now. This is what I think will happen. The Atlantic LP wont come in.. yet. and when it does it will be too late. I think the Scandi HP will move over the Faroes. the LP will weaken and pass far to our south. and merge with a LP extending SW from Siberia.  And for now the Atlantic LP may well phase with the small LP within its circulation taking it no where..

    Screenshot 2021-02-05 at 18.39.56.png

    Edited by DAVE_ALLEN
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    Posted
  • Location: Basingstoke
  • Location: Basingstoke
    1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

    Sadly this is the way we don’t (as you realise)  ..... As mentioned forever, the repetitive undercut is the only way to keep the snow going 

    ec and gem again on the same page .....

    gem says it sinks .....

    The GEM gives snow up to London for Thursday, I’d be happy with that

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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

    I seewe are getting a trend of colder weather along with the snow on Sunday with older models showing warmer weather and with that we see Snow nearly all day in the east.

    image.thumb.png.e824a0fef73e7c41625deff818c2c213.png

    image.thumb.png.e5540dc643918d76a9b24e03b0a9a925.pngimage.thumb.png.1dcf8148b857d84ef49dd9e72e7e841d.pngimage.thumb.png.848b95c3b3d37f94a765ea9eb22283d7.pngimage.thumb.png.05244fc515cbe42cea3d3bf08cbe1b7b.png

    So we ca begin to check for details now as the system it's about 1 run away from being nailed on.

     

    Edited by Hurricane Squad
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    Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset
    Just now, johnholmes said:

    Sorry it simply cannot do that. The upper air pattern associated with it, various factors there, are going to cause it to begin to stagnate before long, after making some ENE/NE movement. 

    Aside from that is the question that is likely to have evn more effect on it, that of the milder Atlantic air being unable to break through the desner cold air ahead of it.

    Yes ECM is throwing out more blocking to extend the cold. A battle ground will still come at some point 

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
    7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    Sadly this is the way we don’t (as you realise)  ..... As mentioned forever, the repetitive undercut is the only way to keep the snow going 

    ec and gem again on the same page .....

    gem says it sinks .....

    True but plenty of recent runs have shown a fairly good snowy breakdown for most. My point was that I’m not going to celebrate an extra cold dry day or 2 if it is at the expense of a snowy breakdown?  Below was the last ECM run which is traveling north east giving snow to all. This run will have it coming in across the far north only ... let’s hope the low at least corrects south..

    D9FEB5BC-AF6A-4B7C-A174-AC141533931B.jpeg
    This is tonight’s..

    47A1A418-C25B-4282-8D39-9110F05AF197.thumb.jpeg.995fb27592ec0f7a9e619d42241e38ca.jpeg

    Edited by Tim Bland
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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

    not sure if it could be like Jan 2002? with ice days off this setup?

     

    archives-2002-1-3-12-0.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    From deep winter to an early blast of spring in a few days if tonight’s GEM and ECM are to be believed! This potential evolution seems to have snuck in through the back door!

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

    Sunday next week on ECM. 00z vs 12z

    Anyone think the mid term is a little uncertain.....seems like its searching for a way to keep the continental/easterly flow but failing miserably...

    00z for next sunday

    spacer.png

    12 for next Sunday (12 hours ahead)

    spacer.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
    2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    From deep winter to an early blast of spring in a few days if tonight’s GEM and ECM are to be believed! This potential evolution seems to have snuck in through the back door!

     

    The surface temperatures might not be so spring-like....

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    Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset

    So we have managed to squeeze another day out of this upcoming cold spell. I wonder if this could be a trend that gains momentum. The charts showing mild southerlies are at day 8 and 9. If the oomph of the low is being over modelled the southerlies could be out in the Atlantic as the low fills while the UK remains under s cold high.

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    Very hard to tell what the temperatures would be like at the surface. Similar charts like that in February could deliver above average temperatures, yet with dry air could allow nighttime frosts. However we arrive here with snow on the ground not only here but over parts of northern France. It could still be quite cold even with some very warm air aloft.

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    13 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    With more energy going se you’d have an even better day 6 and 7 as the high would be further north . But still not bad , the cold is hanging on .

    Yes didn't work out as I'd imagined! Still, another extension of the cold as it gets into the more reliable timeframe.

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    Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

    Putting aside the fantastic cold spell on our doorstep, what happens to that end of week low (and the consequences of) is, hands down, one of the best model watching periods I can remember. Fascinating stuff.

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

    More amplification and less heading NE here and I wonder what the future would hold.

    image.thumb.png.13d4ef1b482108962fa1beddfb7a7858.png

    ECM throws out some grains of interest as we look beyond our cold spell.

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    Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
    1 minute ago, Captain Shortwave said:

    Very hard to tell what the temperatures would be like at the surface. Similar charts like that in February could deliver above average temperatures, yet with dry air could allow nighttime frosts. However we arrive here with snow on the ground not only here but over parts of northern France. It could still be quite cold even with some very warm air aloft.

    ECM 12 op,  a week on Monday (15th Feb) 00.00hrs

    image.thumb.png.3f883b364f1fa386db390004b1187e5a.png

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    It’s in Fahrenheit but still very cold at the surface next weekend especially where any snow lingers 

    BDEDC650-608A-4193-BB48-CEFDAC4C496E.jpeg

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    Message added by Paul,

    It's busy right now, so please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 
    For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads
    And for more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.
    There's now also a cold spell chat and discusison thread.

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    • Thundery breakdown underway but still some last minute sunshine and warmth this weekend

      The heatwave is over, with the breakdown getting underway in southern England first this weekend. Further north and west there'll still be plenty of very warm sunshine on offer, before the weather becomes much less settled countrywide next week. Read the full update here

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