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Model thread discussion - cold spell looming


Message added by Paul,

It's busy right now, so please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 
For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads
And for more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.
There's now also a cold spell chat and discusison thread.

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Posted
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny summers. cold snowy winters
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl

    Far southwest would be happy if tonights gfs run is correct. Different by morning I'm sure!

    Screenshot_20210208-223010_Meteociel.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    24 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    Still not enough trough disruption later on but the main thing is the GFS hasn’t trended towards the grinch duo of the GEM and UKMO .

    Fingers crossed for a different UKMO in particular in the morning! 🤞

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    Plenty of convective activity now, not really affecting the south, weather system needs to clear first:

    5D022976-5FD0-42B4-8F52-9623891DFF96.thumb.gif.6f8f57ef7118659fc45fd3612c0fb4bf.gif

    Here’s EURO4 12z take on how this might evolve:

    anim_pmm0.gif

    I think it under does it, as might be expected, hence MO warning until Wednesday.  

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    Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
    39 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

    ECM showing a battleground situation over the weekend, low pressure to the west coming unstuck against heights to the east, end result a southerly flow off a cold continent, and some sort of frontal feature moving in but most likely stalling in situ. The high wins out and we see the airflow turn to a SE one.

    GFS up to Saturday same evolution but makes less of the heights to the NE, however, lets see what the 18z run gives.

    UKMO aligned with ECM.

    A protracted colder than average period ahead and blocked.

    Years such as 1996, 2001, 2005, 2006, 2010 and 2018 all coming to mind at present.. all featured cold Marches!

    I'd take a 2005... from midmonth it was as mild/warm as the first half was cold, plus it was the only one in that list that wasn't incessantly dull!

    Here and now I'm just intrigued by the potential for a similar battleground scenario to Feb 1996. Different synoptics but a similar frontal outcome possible. I wouldn't want to look any further than this coming weekend.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    Sticking with the cold theme(i know,i have to get to bed now) but the De-built ecm ens😮

    remember folks Holland isn't that far away...

    eps_pluim_tt_06260.thumb.png.b17ec3cdedfbc259a69de49b16c065ec.pngeps_pluim_td_06260.thumb.png.d659b1f84a2a822b4b692479d1c00ebe.pngeps_pluim_dd_06260.thumb.png.3aa79e4cad3caf1091ccf92eb0826648.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    1 hour ago, nobble said:

    Don’t forget March 2013 ! 

    Oh yes should add 2013 to the list most definitely.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

    A nice cluster of very cold uppers showing up on the 18Z GEFS suite continuing the cold spell. Something to keep an eye on perhaps.

    E07590A9-98F5-4966-A034-BA0F41DA76A5.thumb.jpeg.91275bfd06d94342097dc4faaaa65c4b.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni

    Yeah not a good start to the day, I remember a few days ago that the UKMO showed the high collapsing and now the 00z has unfortunately brought the idea back. The fact that its picked the signal back up is not great and from experience doesn’t normally revert towards the favoured solution I.e keeping the Scandi high with energy going underneath.

    What we can hope for is that the high collapses quickly leaving a slither of heights to the north which then energy can disrupt SE putting us back into the continental feed. I think the evolution is super dynamic and tough to predict so I doubt any of the models have a great idea of what’s going to happen post 120hrs 

    C4F36F1A-D9E5-4A09-AB2F-CA8F1728947A.png

    Edited by Panayiotis
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    Posted
  • Location: Wrexham,NE Wales - 89m
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Sunny Summers/Cold Wintry Winters
  • Location: Wrexham,NE Wales - 89m
    29 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

    UKMO at 144.

    No dressing it up, a poor chart for cold, everything too far east.

    GFS also too far east at 144

    UN144-21 (1) (14).gif

    gfsnh-0-144 (31).png

    No sugar coating either of them but the GFS is still better and holds the Atlantic at bay at least it looks like on the UKMO it would blast through. 

    By Day 8 there is still some hope there trying to create a Scandi Ridge whilst looking towards Greenland too provided some energy from the bowling ball is cut off.

    At this point looking for hope is not great considering some of the spectacular charts that were popping up a mere 36 hours ago. Shows how much can change within a short time period. 

     

    gfseu-0-204.png

    Edited by Summerstorm
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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

    Very low confidence of any model having the solution correct for end if the week, the way the low interacts with the cold block over UK is not resolved yet, even the met have no idea either 

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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
    13 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

    Very low confidence of any model having the solution correct for end if the week, the way the low interacts with the cold block over UK is not resolved yet, even the met have no idea either 

    You may be right, there is still a wide spread in the ensembles at 168, with the OP in the milder cluster. I'll be very interested to see if the met office long range forecast gets altered later today

    gfs-london-gb-515n-0e (1) (18).jpeg

    Edited by Battleground Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

    gfs  is saying poss breckdown by  186  hr   turning  mild !!

    gfs-2-186.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
    7 hours ago, festivalking said:

    Far southwest would be happy if tonights gfs run is correct. Different by morning I'm sure!

    Screenshot_20210208-223010_Meteociel.jpg

    Unfortunately you got that bit correct! Cant believe the turnaround overnight, we've gone from an exiting prospect for the southwest to a countrywide southerly! A scandi high to a euro high, UKMO wont be wrong this close to the event, no matter what ecm shows were loking a warm up this weekend onwards. Where as yesterday the Met seemed to be ignoring their own model with the app showing 3c for my area on Sunday, they show 8c today.

    Edited by KTtom
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    Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks.81 absl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks.81 absl

    Yes. I think the ship is pulling  in the anchor and ready to sail on a interesting breakdown or cold fighting back. Breaktime for me as I'm currently frustrated with this current cold spell lol.

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    Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
    4 minutes ago, joggs said:

    Yes. I think the ship is pulling  in the anchor and ready to sail on a interesting breakdown or cold fighting back. Breaktime for me as I'm currently frustrated with this current cold spell lol.

    Agree, the lack of a decent breakdown is frustrating to say the least...all this cold and the western half won't see a flake...I'm still gobsmacked by the scale of th echange in 6 hours, some will no dout say the usual about 1 run etc, but as I said above the UKMO wont be wrong this close.

    Last night the UK was entirely under sub -5 uppers on Sunday, this morning the -5 line just scrapes the north east of Scotland! Canterbury was forecast -1 for Sunday now its +7! 

     

    GFSOPEU00_138_2.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

    And now with all 3 agreeing on the breakdown its almost certainly over!!!gona be making the most of this cold snowy spell for my part of the world but it looks like thats about it peeps!!!give it a chance on the 12z but they all look remarkably similar this morning and in a very bad way at 144 hours if you like cold!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex

    Remember that this is the 0z suite - notoriously progressive.

    Wait for the 12z before calling anything.

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    Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset

    Well if it's a wobble it's a cross model wobble this morning. ECM chalk and cheese from its 12z run. Highly unlikely that all models ops would be extreme mild outliers.  

    See what the Meto extended says later but not looking great with the ops this morning.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    Seems like the weather wants to break without any snow event at all. Seems odd how this happens all time similar to the increasing frequency of hot spells breaking down without TS. Sad times. 

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