Model thread discussion - cold spell looming

[Lord Grogon]

56 minutes ago, Frigid said:

Surely that’s not right. If it were then it well could be the Coldest February since 1991, for London anyways 

I think the graph is for Luton Airport. 

Edited February 8, 2021 by Lord Grogon

[Griff]

2 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

@Griff hello! Really on para? When you say RIP has it simply stopped coming out ? Or has there been a notification it is no more?

No news to my knowledge, but at this rate it won't be much use for chasing down any further cold

[Uncertainty]

8 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Any news on the mean charts for ecm?!!

Not quite as strong a Scandi high as the 0z pal but the 46 keeps it cold and v blocked well into March 

Week 3

 

 

Week 4

 

 

Normally these charts would electrify this forum, but understandably given the vagaries of this winter and the present snow fix granted for many it’s only a passing interest. But we must continue our work discussing the models, and this is what they are showing at present. Cold and blocked remains the form horse, with a 25% threat of an Atlantic incursion of unknown duration.

[Tim Bland]

A snowy Saturday for many on the evening Icon...

[Don]

We need the UKMO to get back on board fast, otherwise it's very likely to be game over for next week.  Seen it so many times over the years.....

[Drifter]

4 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

A snowy Saturday for many on the evening Icon...

Very nice run that for the east especially. Basically this is what we want i.e the mild to have a really good go at getting in, then being pushed back at the last moment. 

So far we’ve basically either had the cold winning or the Atlantic winning.  

What we need is a very delicate dance between the two and we could still hit the jackpot yet. 

[Tim Bland]

ICON shows the precip making it accross most areas before hitting the block and dying out. 

Edited February 8, 2021 by Tim Bland

[johnholmes]

The latest NOAA 500 mb anomaly's might cheer some of you up. Its the first set of charts to suggest this option so another 24 maybe 48h to see what follows?

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 

[nick sussex]

16 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

A snowy Saturday for many on the evening Icon...

Essentially the ICON ejects a shortwave of the main trough se and because of that it adds a bit more support to the Scandi high .

Thats at a better alignment than the earlier run . The key though here is the shortwave must eject cleanly otherwise it will pull the trough further east .

 

Edited February 8, 2021 by nick sussex

[Snowman.]

32 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

Is this a better outcome for a cold outlook?

Hard to tell. They're basically the same and big fat scandi highs usually retrogress westwards anyway.

 

 

[Battleground Snow]

ICON at 120, maybe a tiny adjustment west. 

[nick sussex]

I’ve looked through the GEFS and can’t find anything to match that ICON evolution .

Perhaps it’s gone a bit rogue .

[Skullzrulerz]

5 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

ICON at 120, maybe a tiny adjustment west. 

Will it make any difference?

[Battleground Snow]

1 minute ago, Skullzrulerz said:

Will it make any difference?

Unfortunately we will never know, probably would have been better than its 12z run though

[Nath]

9 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

ICON shows the precip making it accross most areas before hitting the block and dying out. 

Classic 1980s situation, where most of the time it never made it anywhere near where the night before's forecast said it would before the block sent it packing.

[georgiedre]

11 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

The latest NOAA 500 mb anomaly's might cheer some of you up. Its the first set of charts to suggest this option so another 24 maybe 48h to see what follows?

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 

So high to the north of Scotland towards Norway and low pressure skirting to the south of any high... sliders??

[sheikhy]

3 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Unfortunately we will never know, probably would have been better than its 12z run though

Battleground once again im waitin for that upgrade update on the 18z from you!!!!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

23 minutes ago, Don said:

We need the UKMO to get back on board fast, otherwise it's very likely to be game over for next week.  Seen it so many times over the years.....

Take it the UKMO dosen't bring any snow Sat, Atlantic looks closer so may do

[Man With Beard]

1 hour ago, Frigid said:

Surely that’s not right. If it were then it well could be the Coldest February since 1991, for London anyways 

Assuming the ECM comes true, I can't remember such a long period since 1991 where everything has come from the east in the coldest part of winter. Usually our cold spells are just that - spells. Even December 2010 was actually two cold spells with a slightly milder week in the middle.

Edited February 8, 2021 by Man Without Beard

[Griff]

I'll be brave and open myself to ridicule, slightly more blocked to the east and a tad more amplified to Greenland... 

Expecting egg on face shortly... 

Edit: and keep an eye over Iberia...  

Edited February 8, 2021 by Griff

[Mike Poole]

GFS T96 compared to 12z at T102:

The bowling ball low deeper on this one, and given we (think we) know it isn’t going anywhere, maybe drive more WAA into the block?

[Griff]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

GFS T96 compared to 12z at T102:

The bowling ball low deeper on this one, and given we (think we) know it isn’t going anywhere, maybe drive more WAA into the block?

Looks it  

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, Griff said:

Looks it  

That kiggle T108 might help:

[Rocheydub]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

That kiggle T108 might help:

Kiggle? Is that like a crooked squiggle? 

[Griff]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

That kiggle T108 might help:

I'm amazed how much the low is repelled... Not those invisible blocks last (not) seen in November / December