Model thread discussion - cold spell looming

[Alexis]

1 hour ago, Tim Bland said:

Looking at the radar was a nice surprise this morning ! As many have said - The models really are poor at picking up convection ! 
 

Mostly great output this morning but just to keep our feet on the ground GEM shows us what can go wrong . At first glance the ensembles don’t look that cold but then I remembered we are at the coldest point of the year so the red line (climatological average) is below zero, so almost all of them keep us in the snow game

True, but remove the lightest yellow from the radar, which is just dandruff, and it is a little less impressive. Hopefully will pep up though.

[Alexis]

14 minutes ago, Dave Kightley said:

It's actually very rainy on that chart for the south as the uppers are to warm

Low dew points being dragged in from the continent though.

[Battleground Snow]

Icon looks a tiny improvement at 120, with everything held a little west and the low a little further north

It's 00z run was pretty good, so this is a positive step.

[nick sussex]

An encouraging start to our “ Save the easterly campaign “ !

The ICON 06 hrs run has the high further north at day 5 with the upstream low corrected westwards .

Edited February 8, 2021 by nick sussex

[Lukesluckybunch]

I would just like to say a theory on something see if you folks agree with me,but when the models are showing extreme cold in central Europe heading towards the UK like they was couple days ago for next week's weather.just a theory but you have to think about it and realise it's very likely not too happen because rarely would you see northern and eastern Europe quite mild well milder then average ,more often then not the cold is stored up in that area rather then central Europe,so those charts in my opinion that were showing -16-18 uppers into central Europe in the UK are very unlikely to verify.just my theory on things as it looks quite unrealistic.obviously I do hope that I am wrong

[Malarky]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

An encouraging start to our “ Save the easterly campaign “ !

The ICON has the high turnout further north at day 5 with the upstream low corrected westwards .

Apologies for the off topic reply, however, decent convective snowfall so far here today in Nottinghamshire. Feeling hopeful for the runs later today.

[Lukesluckybunch]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

An encouraging start to our “ Save the easterly campaign “ !

The ICON 06 hrs run has the high further north at day 5 with the upstream low corrected westwards .

That's true I was thinking the same

[bluearmy]

a couple of days to come where the runs will ebb and flow around the ridges and troughs and the mood will ebb and flow with them 

the profile around svaalbard remains important - too much troughing and the ridge cannot gain traction - too little and it could get too far 

in addition, gem shows what happens if the initial WAA fails to drive a scandi upper ridge - its unlikely a wedge will suffice judging by that run

[feb1991blizzard]

 

8 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

An encouraging start to our “ Save the easterly campaign “ !

The ICON 06 hrs run has the high further north at day 5 with the upstream low corrected westwards .

TBH i never thought the Easterly that soon was on the table, at most 50% of the suite went that way and certainly now its looking off the table, i was more in the D12-15 range, however the high is just staying in the same position, we dont want an in between here, we either want a low to the West pushing in, neutrally tilted with a front N-S or NNW-SSE - (think 5th feb 1996), or we want the high further West and rectangularly orientated with uppers sourced from the Arctic curving into N Europe and then to us on a screaming E or NE flow, we don't want to just be left in a kind of col with no PPN - thats where i think we might be headed though.

[johnholmes]

A view from the 500 anomaly perspective!

Mon 8 th Feb

Ec-gfs and both continue with the closed ridge over, or rather ne of the uk from 24 hours ago, the rest of the charts also pretty similar, the other main feature being the quite strong w’ly beneath the main trough s of Greenland; the main flow being beneath the uk area ridge into s’ern Europe. So the closed ridge between Norway and ne uk is really a major feature for the uk weather.

Noaa 6-10 and its main feature in the uk area is, similar to ec-gfs,, the marked ridging in a similar area (not closed), and the strong w’ly flow beneath the rather unusual shaped main trough of several days now, little sign of any marked flow into Europe and a trough well east over same. In the far w the Aleutian closed centre and some indication of ridging e of this remain. The 8-14 ‘loses’ the ridge in the far w but looks quite similar for the rest east of this into Europe.

The weather pattern would seem to remain, a fairly dry cold spell 6-14 days with ocnl attempts at milder incursions from the atlantic w or sw of the uk? The ridge looks like being in a similar position through this forecast period.

A quick look at the two ECMWF outputs to see if they suggest any major difference in the 6-14 day period.

The 500 chart shows the marked ridge as above but flattens it out as the upper trough is pushed east, and by 18 th, 10 days ahead, the trough is north of the Black Sea with another ridge developed just ne of the uk and the main atlantic flow staying west of the uk. The surface feature near the uk, remains the deep low in the atlantic and the high from Scandinavia into Europe; 850 mb values are shown as just a little either side of zero tending to lower late in the period to just below zero.

The coloured charts show the pattern we have now with quite low temperatures slowly easing up 120-144 hours to move the coldest air roughly n-s down the far e of the country as the 850 winds veer from ese to more s’ly. The rest of the period to 240 hours shows a slight too-ing and froing of the colder air but no major change overall.

ECMWF/GFS DAY 8-10 MEAN 500MB HEIGHT COMPARISON

WWW.METEO.PSU.EDU

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

These are ECMWF 500 and surface charts on this link

http://www2.wetter3.de/Fax/00_ECMWF_ENS_p0_500hPa+144_240.gif

and another link into ECMWF charts

http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/

 

[MJB]

8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

 

TBH i never thought the Easterly that soon was on the table, at most 50% of the suite went that way and certainly now its looking off the table, i was more in the D12-15 range, however the high is just staying in the same position, we dont want an in between here, we either want a low to the West pushing in, neutrally tilted with a front N-S or NNW-SSE - (think 5th feb 1996), or we want the high further West and rectangularly orientated with uppers sourced from the Arctic curving into N Europe and then to us on a screaming E or NE flow, we don't want to just be left in a kind of col with no PPN - thats where i think we might be headed though.

And eventually a slow rise in temps , a breakdown of rain from the West ......................now that wouldn't surprise me 

[Notty]

3 minutes ago, MJB said:

And eventually a slow rise in temps , a breakdown of rain from the West ......................now that wouldn't surprise me 

Always the most likely outcome in the UK unfortunately 

[MJB]

Just now, Notty said:

Always the most likely outcome in the UK unfortunately 

I wouldn't mind just as long as the Atlantic can get in first ( this week , attempt 1) and then deliver 

And it's struggling to get here 

[Don]

A tad disappointing this morning with the models.  I wouldn’t have minded so much if it was looking like I was getting lots of snow this week, however.  Still, all part of the roller coaster ride I suppose?!

[Battleground Snow]

Obituaries being written a bit too soon again I think , we have seen the models try to push the Atlantic in for over 2 weeks now, but when it gets to within 96 hours it never happens, MJO and AAM means we are primed for blocking,

GFS a marginal improvement at 150, in terms the high orientation, but not much in it.

[MJB]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

Obituaries being written a bit too soon again I think , we have seen the models try to push the Atlantic in for over 2 weeks now, but when it gets to within 96 hours it never happens, MJO and AAM means we are primed for blocking,

GFS a marginal improvement at 150, in terms the high orientation, but not much in it.

I'm not so sure I think we will drift into nothingness If I'm honest , a dry spell and a slow rise before the HP gives up , seen that many times 

Next push a week today all the while the 850's are creeping back to Europe ....on this run 

[Battleground Snow]

2 minutes ago, MJB said:

I'm not so sure I think we will drift into nothingness If I'm honest , a dry spell and a slow rise before the HP gives up , seen that many times 

Next push a week today all the while the 850's are creeping back to Europe ....on this run 

Yes, it's not going to make it this run, but well into FI at 180 now. We need energy to head under the block.

 

[Howie]

What's causing the high to just suddenly sink like that?

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

Yes, it's not going to make it this run, but well into FI at 180 now. We need energy to head under the block.

 

Yeh not aa good but still very cold at 180 hours!!think we should forget bout the easteerly now and think if we can retrogress the high!

[Captain Shortwave]

The trend still looks to be turning settled by Thursday with long spells of sunshine away from any fronts trying to get in from the west.

The GFS sets up a strong south easterly wind by the weekend, which will feel raw with temperatures still struggling to get above freezing.

   

[Battleground Snow]

2 minutes ago, Howie said:

What's causing the high to just suddenly sink like that?

Not enough energy going underneath to prop it up

[Lukesluckybunch]

3 minutes ago, Howie said:

What's causing the high to just suddenly sink like that?

I guess too much energy moving North and east over the the top of the high.we need it to stall in the atlantic,then move back westwards rather then east northeastwards

Ds

[Howie]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

Not enough energy going underneath to prop it up

Hopefully this will change 

[MJB]

Might get some battelground snow from it at least 

I think we have moved away from a reload Easterly now 

@210 though will we get something from the NE

[geordiekev]

3 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Not enough energy going underneath to prop it up

Much to be resolved and prob won't be till the high starts to develop & the US storm begins to dissipate.

The starting blocks are all there and if it doesn't quite get there, at least it stays cold keeping majority of snow cover on the ground throughout.

Dare I say it, we could do with some settled weather, but just 1 or 2 days then I want reload & is promising that most variations have the starting blocks still to set up the HP.

More runs needed