Model thread discussion - cold spell looming

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, That ECM said:

 

Yes - case rested, 5 members already go between -10c and 15c and the run still has a few days left yet.

EDIT : and that is just Manchester, there may be other runs for instance already in that range in London if they are E'ly.

Edited February 5, 2021 by feb1991blizzard

[Cloud 10]

Some real stunners later on in the GEFS and plenty of nearly's as well.

 

[nick sussex]

In terms of UndercutGate . Lol

I think what John means is the low itself can’t undercut , that from the day 6 is impossible .

But some shortwave energy disrupting off the main low can.

 

[MKN]

Yea hes not wrong tbh. You are talking about something happening 6/7 days away being nailed on. Its absolutely not. Every chance the low  fails to obliterate the cold easterly as shown currently. Just look at the difference 06 to 12z gfs and the differences there and you can see how over a few days the final outcome could look totally different. 

Edited February 5, 2021 by Paul

[CentralSouthernSnow]

10 minutes ago, Cloud 10 said:

Some real stunners later on in the GEFS and plenty of nearly's as well.

 

GEFS isn’t a very reliable chart.  If ECM or GFS aren’t showing it I tend not to back it 

[bluearmy]

Ec op consistent on sat night and Sunday/Monday  snow in se now ......large totals in the metoffice amber warning zone ... generally 1 to 5 cms elsewhere 

it will feel v cold though .............

[john mac1]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Ec op consistent on sat night and Sunday/Monday  snow in se now ......large totals in the metoffice amber warning zone ... generally 1 to 5 cms elsewhere 

it will feel v cold though .............

Wow, thought it was meant to 5-10cms widely ? 

[Snowman.]

Getting a little more kinky now.

 

[Battleground Snow]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Ec op consistent on sat night and Sunday/Monday  snow in se now ......large totals in the metoffice amber warning zone ... generally 1 to 5 cms elsewhere 

it will feel v cold though .............

Indeed, a notable event for some parts.

 

[bluearmy]

Just now, john mac1 said:

Wow, thought it was meant to 5-10cms widely ? 

5am Tuesday accumulated snowfall - the snow depth chart even less impressive away from that se strip 

[bluearmy]

we should not assume this is a one way street - what has swung east could well yet swing west a bit 

[Griff]

Heights at 120  

[john mac1]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

5am Tuesday accumulated snowfall - the snow depth chart even less impressive away from that se strip 

Could be a radar watch them. A small shunt north and west would be significant !

[Snowman.]

Just now, john mac1 said:

Wow, thought it was meant to 5-10cms widely ? 

The slow adjustments SE have caused the front to stay out mostly East I'm afraid, but it may up the convection and the worries a mild sector have vanished. 

 

 

[Battleground Snow]

1 minute ago, Griff said:

Heights at 120  

Interesting, looks slightly more appealing than the Ukmo, winds are ENE compared to ESE

[ICE COLD]

Colder uppers at day 5 on the ECM compared with yesterday’s 144

[SLEETY]

sesnsational ecm run gets colder and colder out to next wednesday

[Cloud 10]

ECM comparison with yesterday.

 

[nick sussex]

The ECM is far better on a number of fronts at day 5 , compared to the GFS .

If the day 6 doesn’t eject a decent amount of shortwave energy se then I would be shocked .

Edited February 5, 2021 by nick sussex

[CentralSouthernSnow]

6 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

Getting a little more kinky now.

 

That means streamers right? 

[bluearmy]

Just now, nick sussex said:

The ECM is far better on a number of fronts at day 5 , compared the GFS .

If the day 6 doesn’t eject a decent amount of shortwave energy se then I would be shocked .

Day 6 has the opportunity to be a bit of a wow .....will it take it ???

[I remember Atlantic 252]

looks a better angle for Thursday's low? Wed also looks snowy

[Snowman.]

Just now, CentralSouthernSnow said:

That means streamers right? 

Convection of some type yes. 

[Battleground Snow]

ECM still has -11/-12 uppers over London at 138

[ICE COLD]

T144 is it good @nick sussex @bluearmy??