Model thread discussion - cold spell looming

[Anthony Burden]

ECM/GFS showing a long period of cold/ very cold weather which as stated in early blog could

produce some records broken,all on this forum who loves cold could not ask for much more.

Lets hope for those who have been snow starved get their share.

 

[Cold Winter Night]

EC follows another route than GFS obviously, but not necessarily a worse route.

EC 240h reminds me of late November 2010.
These two charts from the 22nd and the 24th of Nov 2010 could very well be what EC 264h and 288h would have looked like:

[Howie]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Easterly setups can be self sustaining, or at least re-inforcing, it just doesn’t happen much these days, last time was March 2018, before it March 2013.  

But there’s no vortex there to push things, there is an element of summer patterns to our locale in the depth of winter, thanks to the SSW(s) and what went before, some of us have been chasing exactly this for fully two months!!! Delivery!!!

It sounds like an amazing spell of weather coming up. And oh I've been right there with everyone chasing it

[Cheshire Freeze]

8 minutes ago, Drifter said:

Check out the 850s on the day 10 chart. Where does all the cold go?  Having seen the synoptics between day 9 and 10 it seems implausible. Would still be freezing cold on the ground though. 

Quite simply, mixed out. By mid feb you need a continuous source of cold uppers to maintain any cold flow. Once cut off, they get mixed out/warm quite easily, especially further S in Europe. It means spring isn’t far off basically as surface heating begins to increase.

[geordiekev]

16 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Not quite the latter stages we hoped for but there is plenty of time for changes.

Overall a great evening for coldies . No sign of milder conditions for the foreseeable future .

It’s great to be able to say that .

The next low looks primed to go under, surely that would improve things? @nick sussex

Poss retrogression?

Edited February 7, 2021 by geordiekev

[Lukesluckybunch]

14 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Not quite the latter stages we hoped for but there is plenty of time for changes.

Overall a great evening for coldies . No sign of milder conditions for the foreseeable future .

It’s great to be able to say that .

Yes hi nick,judging by the output how long do you think this cold will last..do you see it getting less cold this weekend?

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, Cold Winter Night said:

EC follows another route than GFS obviously, but not necessarily a worse route.

EC 240h reminds me of late November 2010.
These two charts from the 22nd and the 24th of Nov 2010 could very well be what EC 264h and 288h would have looked like:

Good spot, I like that, the retrogression signal was definitely on at the end of the ECM.  Whether it pans out like that is not the thing, the thing is that an evolution towards a scandi high is now almost certain, and retrogression is the probable next move.  Yes, that may mean a cold, dry not snowy period in the meantime, but that’s also part of a proper winter spell in my view, the snow will return if the retrogression occurs with cold still in situ.  

[Lukesluckybunch]

3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Quite simply, mixed out. By mid feb you need a continuous source of cold uppers to maintain any cold flow. Once cut off, they get mixed out/warm quite easily, especially further S in Europe. It means spring isn’t far off basically as surface heating begins to increase.

Ok Crewe but the actual surface temperatures would still be cold right?

[WINTRY WALES]

This cold being extended Is great ...but it looks pretty much snowless unfortunately 

Edited February 7, 2021 by WINTRY WALES

[Catacol]

7 minutes ago, Howie said:

It's crazy how the pattern seems to be sustaining itself, usually those lows off the eastern seaboard would send us mild and wet but the blocking to the east sticks them up, robs them of their energy and sends them packing to the south

Impacts of the SSW timed with pacific developments. All good.

But the tricky bit is going to be getting a proper nationwide snow event. It’s been a fabulous winter really, it just needs that major event to anchor it. Storm Darcy is only clipping the SE after looking initially like it might push further north. IMBY the 3rd narrow miss by about 40 miles. Shower streams will do well in some parts - but I really want everyone on this board to get their cut. My dad lives near Dundee - he confirms that this winter has seen more snow than they could possibly wish for up there. Meanwhile some parts of the south have remained green pretty much throughout. I’m hoping we can get this block aligned in order to create a Feb 91 style setup. But it may not happen. Truth is - the macro patterns have clicked well this season. For the south the micro ones have been a bit stingy.

On we go. Fingers crossed. At least mild and wet isn’t on the cards.

[nick sussex]

9 minutes ago, CentralSouthernSnow said:

How come it isn’t the latter stages you hoped for? These charts look great for cold and snow especially in south! 

Aim high ! The ECM is a very good run , so nothing at all to worry about . But there’s a way to get more deep cold west and the retrogression of the high with another possible reload from the ne .

 

[Skullzrulerz]

Has there been any updates in regards to Tuesday's Snow event ? 

[Chesil View]

Well the ECM does us coldies proud. After some snow for the west later this week the cold comes surging back (as hinted at by Matt Taylor on the country file forecast this evening) and then suggests retrogression to Greenland in the final frames to open up the proper polar continental floodgates. Absolutely fascinating model watching its like watching archive runs from some of the classic winters.  All goibg in good directions this evening on the ops.

[nick sussex]

Just now, Skullzrulerz said:

Has there been any updates in regards to Tuesday's Snow event ? 

Still looks like a good chance . I posted a brief summary in the sw central regional thread .

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Ok Crewe but the actual surface temperatures would still be cold right?

Depends on the situation. By the end of February we start to lose inversion potential as the land starts to warm during the day. HP over us in late February can feel very springlike during the day, albeit frosty at night. 

[Mike Poole]

7 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Quite simply, mixed out. By mid feb you need a continuous source of cold uppers to maintain any cold flow. Once cut off, they get mixed out/warm quite easily, especially further S in Europe. It means spring isn’t far off basically as surface heating begins to increase.

Christ, you won’t be happy until hell freezes over, Crewe!!!

[Skullzrulerz]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Still looks like a good chance . I posted a brief summary in the sw central regional thread .

I take a look! Thank you

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

Christ, you won’t be happy until hell freezes over, Crewe!!!

[Chesil View]

7 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Quite simply, mixed out. By mid feb you need a continuous source of cold uppers to maintain any cold flow. Once cut off, they get mixed out/warm quite easily, especially further S in Europe. It means spring isn’t far off basically as surface heating begins to increase.

But we won't need to worry about those uppers because the high is retrogressing toward Greenland at that point. 

[CentralSouthernSnow]

13 minutes ago, Jason M said:

Very cold, yes. Snowy, not really. Pressure is far too high.

Ah that’s such a shame! Was hoping for snow from these runs. 

[nick sussex]

7 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Yes hi nick,judging by the output how long do you think this cold will last..do you see it getting less cold this weekend?

Hi . The deep upper cold will slowly relax towards the weekend but at ground level it will remain very cold . The flow looks like remaining sourced from the east or se for the foreseeable future for the vast majority of the UK. 

[Lukesluckybunch]

3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Depends on the situation. By the end of February we start to lose inversion potential as the land starts to warm during the day. HP over us in late February can feel very springlike during the day, albeit frosty at night. 

Ok so going by the latest ECM what would the temperatures be like at days 9/10

[geordiekev]

7 minutes ago, Cold Winter Night said:

EC follows another route than GFS obviously, but not necessarily a worse route.

EC 240h reminds me of late November 2010.
These two charts from the 22nd and the 24th of Nov 2010 could very well be what EC 264h and 288h would have looked like:

My thoughts exactly, a bit of hope casting but I've been keeping a watch of the Pacific block and how it may assist retrogression & 0z GFS showed however it did mean a prolonged dry cold spell before then.

0z GFS 380 showed the possibility but don't like the idea of waiting a week under a benign high and much prefer a beast early doors.

GFS 0z v Dec 2010

[Lukesluckybunch]

Just now, nick sussex said:

Hi . The deep upper cold will slowly relax towards the weekend but at ground level it will remain very cold . The flow looks like remaining sourced from the east or se for the foreseeable future for the vast majority of the UK.

Ok Thanks nick

[Johnp]

10 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Impacts of the SSW timed with pacific developments. All good.

But the tricky bit is going to be getting a proper nationwide snow event. It’s been a fabulous winter really, it just needs that major event to anchor it. Storm Darcy is only clipping the SE after looking initially like it might push further north. IMBY the 3rd narrow miss by about 40 miles. Shower streams will do well in some parts - but I really want everyone on this board to get their cut. My dad lives near Dundee - he confirms that this winter has seen more snow than they could possibly wish for up there. Meanwhile some parts of the south have remained green pretty much throughout. I’m hoping we can get this block aligned in order to create a Feb 91 style setup. But it may not happen. Truth is - the macro patterns have clicked well this season. For the south the micro ones have been a bit stingy.

On we go. Fingers crossed. At least mild and wet isn’t on the cards.

Nothing to add, but that's one of the best posts of the winter. Sums things up perfectly