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Model thread discussion - cold spell looming


Message added by Paul,

It's busy right now, so please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 
For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads
And for more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.
There's now also a cold spell chat and discusison thread.

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    UKMO looks more like GFS than GEM to me so Probably just a delay / very temporary relaxation of the cold. GEFS still 50/50

    37D1B5B6-8874-4575-B8D0-29674132BD83.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Duddingston, Edinburgh
  • Location: Duddingston, Edinburgh

    The GFS was woeful modelling the current cold spell so don’t see any reason to start backing it now it shows something good. I’ll wait to UKMO and ECM start going there ...

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    Posted
  • Location: North Newbald , East Riding of Yorkshire 139 f asl
  • Location: North Newbald , East Riding of Yorkshire 139 f asl

    gfs-1-216.png?12?12GFS 12z @ t 216

    There is only one word for this .... BRUTAL

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    Posted
  • Location: Marazion
  • Location: Marazion
    1 minute ago, Jeremy Shockey said:

    gfs-1-216.png?12?12GFS 12z @ t 216

    There is only one word for this .... BRUTAL

    Looks worryingly cold that. I should imagine a government cobra meeting if that came off.

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    Posted
  • Location: Burwell, Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Burwell, Cambridgeshire
    2 minutes ago, JoeShmoe said:

    The GFS was woeful modelling the current cold spell so don’t see any reason to start backing it now it shows something good. I’ll wait to UKMO and ECM start going there ...

    was it though? I think it picked it out even before last weekend. Yes it was then subsequently showing a micro-feature of low pressure just to our East, which for a time cast doubt on whether the Easterly would get going, but on a macro scale I think it is harsh to say it was "woeful"?

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
    19 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

    GFS 12 z on it’s own.  The further push east on the 06z picked up on by UKMO, GEM.  Currently that isn’t great but by no means done deal as UKMO is recoverable from t144.  But not a pleasant development but I suppose we are going to see varying outcomes over next few days.

    Edit...Icon with GFS

    got to admit...this is a poor start down here, quite tame and not severe at all....just ‘wintry’


     

    BFTP

    Who are you and what have you done with BFTP!

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    Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
    52 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

    GFS 12z is an absolute stonker out to t216, it’s easily one of the best runs I’ve seen this winter so far at this timeframe. Wow!😍

    E6207ECB-1D8B-43DD-8EB5-29F7A99D2F74.thumb.png.00cdb14ca08c24f16c276bf5b3ca6c29.pngB51128A6-BCE2-4BB0-8E9C-BEB6C36C0312.thumb.png.1685e7f227d4ff655932e86acc1dd4d2.png

    Can anyone honestly remember the last time if at all Poland had 850's of - 28? 

    @john Holmes?

    @chino?

    1963? 

    1947? 

    It's genuine unmodified polar air and that will come with a danger to life warning 

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

    Looking at GFS 168 and that high is perfectly aligned, will be interesting to see how ECM models it at this range. Overall a continuation of the cold spell looks odds on.

    GFS 168.

    C958271E-4FFD-4560-A531-66881B426F82.thumb.png.2b33d949a5e3027322b6c54143abee8a.png

    We just need a proper England/Wales blizzard thrown in to make this a classic spell, and when there is so much cold air about that is more likely than not.

     

     

     

    Edited by chris55
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    Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
    13 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

    The UKMO is NOT an upgrade on this morning.

    It’s recoverable as it does look more towards GFS but could still go either way...GFS looks more robust, GEM much less so

    BFTP

    Did you see the 00z UKMOThe high over Scandi was collapsing at 144hrs 

    Edited by Panayiotis
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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    The UKMO needs a few runs to settle down as it’s made a large change from its 00 hrs run , a totally different set up over Scandi and the Svalbard area .

    Its output does give more support though towards the GFS than to the GEM which looks like an outlier solution .

    I don’t expect the ECM to back that , at worst I expect a UKMO/GFS combo solution .

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
    4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    The UKMO needs a few runs to settle down as it’s made a large change from its 00 hrs run , a totally different set up over Scandi and the Svalbard area .

    Its output does give more support though towards the GFS than to the GEM which looks like an outlier solution .

    I don’t expect the ECM to back that , at worst I expect a UKMO/GFS combo solution .

     

    Thanks nick I thought I was going mad for a minute, I may well do if I don't get some more sleep soon!

    Edited by Battleground Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: Yateley, NE Hampshire (Berks/Surrey borders)
  • Location: Yateley, NE Hampshire (Berks/Surrey borders)
    22 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

    Really?

    Both Ukmo and gfs have better WAA, albeit the GFS is still much better, gem looks much different.

     

    You're right on closer inspection. I was put off by the weak 120hr UKM chart.

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    Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton
  • Location: Nuneaton
    1 hour ago, Frosty Winter said:

    GFS 12z is an absolute stonker out to t216, it’s easily one of the best runs I’ve seen this winter so far at this timeframe. Wow!😍

    E6207ECB-1D8B-43DD-8EB5-29F7A99D2F74.thumb.png.00cdb14ca08c24f16c276bf5b3ca6c29.pngB51128A6-BCE2-4BB0-8E9C-BEB6C36C0312.thumb.png.1685e7f227d4ff655932e86acc1dd4d2.png

    Wow that would be -5 maximum temps midday. Some places maybe double digit below all day. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Very Cold, Very Snowy
  • Location: Midlands
    1 hour ago, Griff said:

    So who remembers my 😂 at that CFS chart the other day... 

    Add the gem

    gemnh-0-120 (1).png

    gemnh-1-120.png

    Not sure how to find the charts but CFS was showing this pattern for now, weeks ago.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland 6m Below sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, snow, ice. Very hot or very cold.
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland 6m Below sea level

    Last week we've seen huge swings, with FI around 96-120h.

    Now, everything seems to have stabilised quite a bit.

    As always, at 144h there are some differences between models and between runs, of course,
    but to me it really seems to be more about when the Scandi High + its Easterly will set up, and how cold it will end up being,
    and not really if it will set up.

    I don't really see what's wrong with UKMO tbh, unless someone from more Western locations evaluates it IMBY.
    The difference with GFS is tiny, I think.

    To me, it already feels like such a luxury postion. I just came back from my second walk in the snow, nice snow dunes here, T= -5c, wind chill = -13c and I am happy.

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    Posted
  • Location: Nr. Tunbridge Wells (150m/450ft asl)
  • Location: Nr. Tunbridge Wells (150m/450ft asl)
    23 minutes ago, BurwellWeatherWatch said:

    was it though? I think it picked it out even before last weekend. Yes it was then subsequently showing a micro-feature of low pressure just to our East, which for a time cast doubt on whether the Easterly would get going, but on a macro scale I think it is harsh to say it was "woeful"?

    I think it might also have led with picking the movement of the LP yesterday into today and the less impressive 850s as a result (hence my earlier question that was ignored...).

    Re this next spell, I'm interested to see the EC/GFS anomaly charts are fully onboard. Less excitingly, the NOAA charts show significantly meridional flow, but at 8-14 days, it is less pronounced than at 8-10, and unlike the EC/GFS, there's no 'closed circulation' or reversal in the flow. Interested to see tonight's, and more runs probably needed. Would be good to hear @johnholmes's thoughts if he hasn't already been in.

     

     

    Edited by wellington boot
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    Posted
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
  • Weather Preferences: Hot n cold
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
    4 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

    15 straight ice days for many on the latest GFS.

    B9731006-3260-4E7C-BA86-B4212B1705DA.jpeg

    Amazing and i hope it happens too.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    28 minutes ago, JoeShmoe said:

    The GFS was woeful modelling the current cold spell so don’t see any reason to start backing it now it shows something good. I’ll wait to UKMO and ECM start going there ...

    I got absolutely slated yesterday for suggesting the gfs which at the time was showing a breakdown by Thursday (which backed by its ensembles) now off course its showing a outcome so extreme in 10days time Polar Bears could walk across the North Sea without getting their paws wet GFS is again everyone’s favourite, offering the ‘viable’ solution....I spy double standards...

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    Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
    8 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    I got absolutely slated yesterday for suggesting the gfs which at the time was showing a breakdown by Thursday (which backed by its ensembles) now off course its showing a outcome so extreme in 10days time Polar Bears could walk across the North Sea without getting their paws wet GFS is again everyone’s favourite, offering the ‘viable’ solution....I spy double standards...

    And it was wrong about any breakdown on Thursday as no models now show this.

    Not seen anyone proclaiming an extended and extreme cold spell will now happen based on the GFS like you did about a breakdown on Thursday based on the GFS.

    Edited by MattStoke
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    Posted
  • Location: Somerset
  • Location: Somerset
    3 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

    And it was wrong about any breakdown on Thursday as no models now show this.

    Not strictly true, forecasts for the South West suggesting milder air on Thursday now. 

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    1 minute ago, Alderc said:

    I got absolutely slated yesterday for suggesting the gfs which at the time was showing a breakdown by Thursday (which backed by its ensembles) now off course its showing a outcome so extreme in 10days time Polar Bears could walk across the North Sea without getting their paws wet GFS is again everyone’s favourite, offering the ‘viable’ solution....I spy double standards...

    Isn’t it to do with context? Didn’t the GFS pick up on this cold spell first before being inconsistent? Whereas now with the very cold surface conditions we shall have by the weekend meant the speed with which it shifted the cold away seemed unlikely. 
     

    I’m new to this so could be totally wrong but that’s how I read It. 

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