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Model thread discussion - cold spell looming

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

It's busy right now, so please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 
For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads. 
And for more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.
There's now also a cold spell chat and discusison thread.

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ICE COLD Maestro

ICE COLD

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
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Posted

Mate this is getting extremely interesting again can’t believe there’s not more interest.

958FD3F1-6193-4931-B2CE-47018F985948.png

682BB116-D4C1-4FBC-8449-AD3333EB5F55.png

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Kentish Snowman in Yorks Experienced

Kentish Snowman in Yorks

Posted
  • Location: Hemingfield, South Yorkshire (49m / 160ft ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Summer Sunshine / Winter Snow
  • Location: Hemingfield, South Yorkshire (49m / 160ft ASL)
Posted
4 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Day 8

image.thumb.png.859277aa25f4abb32c0835e9d5f3f3e7.png

Beasterly commeth 

Likely to be the coldest operational I have ever seen, this is pretty much the holy grail run.

Choo Choo!

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Matt H Accomplished

Matt H

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge
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Posted

GFS 12z is an absolute stonker out to t216, it’s easily one of the best runs I’ve seen this winter so far at this timeframe. Wow!

E6207ECB-1D8B-43DD-8EB5-29F7A99D2F74.thumb.png.00cdb14ca08c24f16c276bf5b3ca6c29.pngB51128A6-BCE2-4BB0-8E9C-BEB6C36C0312.thumb.png.1685e7f227d4ff655932e86acc1dd4d2.png

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Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Posted
1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

Drop that chart in the in the south east regional thread... That'll get their attention haha

What about Scilly Isles....  

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goosey007 Community Regular

goosey007

Posted
  • Location: Rogerstone/Risca South Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Blizzards in winter Hot and sunny in summer...other is simply boring!!
  • Location: Rogerstone/Risca South Wales
Posted
4 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Good lord!!!

image.thumb.png.cdad9ab0ffea8ffc16e3c82096aad896.png

Not deep FI either.  Wowzer, this could be some spell.

I had it on good authority it was warming up on the weekend

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SLEETY Veteran

SLEETY

Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
Posted

THis is simply amazing,might have been a let-down here today but the cold looks like getting extreme,with plenty more snow chances for everyone if these charts verify,imagine the wind-chill with these uppers.

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Blizzardof82 Community Regular

Blizzardof82

Posted
  • Location: Pucklechurch near Bristol 113m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers and cold winters with snow.
  • Location: Pucklechurch near Bristol 113m ASL
Posted

January 1987 comes to mind when I look at the GFS 12z.

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted
Just now, goosey007 said:

I had it on good authority it was warming up on the weekend

Well that's early next week to be fair. We'll have basked in a balmy 4C the weekend beforehand  

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
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Posted (edited)

Who said this cold spell was dead next week...well i want more and a whole lot more...come onnnnnnn GFS 

gfs-1-216.png

12123_big.jpg

Edited by MATTWOLVES
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Ninman Contributor

Ninman

Posted
  • Location: Nottingham, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and sunny
  • Location: Nottingham, UK
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Posted
2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Wowzers at day 8.5 is a boom  

19B2F318-8D9D-4C94-A14D-41D5AF0C30A3.png

This mild interlude that was progged a couple of days ago isn't going to happen. This is an outstanding chart and to me, looks on the money. No bucket loads of shortwave drama to get through either. So, so exciting! 

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MJB Accomplished

MJB

Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
Posted

image.thumb.png.66f1500b164536105d633635c2dcf80a.png

Monster low cold well be a very quick snow to rain event here 

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sukayuonsensnow Enthusiast

sukayuonsensnow

Posted
  • Location: NE Hampshire, England, United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: snow, cold, ice, frost, thundersnow,
  • Location: NE Hampshire, England, United Kingdom
Posted

That blue area heading towards W Europe again!?

This could be a very notable February indeed, especially when the air is already cold over us despite the greens and yellows.

A few models picking up in this evolution it would seem, still keeping an eye on the progression of Atlantic systems out west as the track of those (later this week included) not quite settled yet.

The main thing is it looks mainly dry, which is good news for flood affected areas.

Screenshot 2021-02-07 at 16.29.34.png

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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted
2 minutes ago, Griff said:

So who remembers my at that CFS chart the other day... 

Add the gem

gemnh-0-120 (1).png

gemnh-1-120.png

Have you still got that CFS chart? It does seem like that was the first model to spot this?! 
 

could we get the snowiest breakdown ever ...

46D83986-2801-4317-BEDB-105054CB95DA.png

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Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
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Posted

Classic GFS moment, create the near perfect set up for severe cold and then...

image.thumb.png.85dd89142bc03c65b80e7a6ea37c7062.png
 

Throw in a ridiculous Atlantic dartboard low.

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Lukesluckybunch Accomplished

Lukesluckybunch

Posted
  • Location: Bicester
  • Location: Bicester
Posted
2 minutes ago, Ninman said:

This mild interlude that was progged a couple of days ago isn't going to happen. This is an outstanding chart and to me, looks on the money. No bucket loads of shortwave drama to get through either. So, so exciting! 

Agreed its such a great chart because even if the winds swing southeasterly look how cold it is southern central europe

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