Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model thread discussion - cold spell looming

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

 Share
Paul
Message added by Paul,

It's busy right now, so please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 
For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads. 
And for more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.
There's now also a cold spell chat and discusison thread.

Recommended Posts

sheikhy Maestro

sheikhy

Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
Posted
5 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Icon at 156 with a notable shift west and more vertical WAA, massive scandi high. It was the most Eastern solution earlier so probably just a step inline with the other models though.

 

iconnh-0-156 (5).png

iconnh-0-168 (7).png

Big big move west!!!same from the gfs please!!!!the scary thing is if that cold pool escapes under the high and towards us then the next spell of cold weather could be even colder than this current spell!

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Battleground Snow Maestro

Battleground Snow

Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
Posted
Just now, sheikhy said:

Big big move west!!!same from the gfs please!!!!the scary thing is if that cold pool escapes under the high and towards us then the next spell of cold weather could be even colder than this current spell!

It's definitely an option, if the Ukmo looks like the icon at 144, I'll be very happy, not too concerned what the GFS shows

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites
StingJet Community Regular

StingJet

Posted
  • Location: Ynys Mon - Cymru (Isle of Anglesey - Wales)
  • Weather Preferences: Whatever Mother Nature cares to throw my way
  • Location: Ynys Mon - Cymru (Isle of Anglesey - Wales)
Posted
10 minutes ago, Norrance said:

There are other threads to discuss BBC forecasts and graphics. Please use them.

Thanks.

 noted and actioned. That said my original post was purely aiming to provide some substantiation of the outputs from the Mets' Fax charts for the end of the week. 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Popular Post
Chasbrown Enthusiast

Chasbrown

Posted
  • Location: Gatwick
  • Location: Gatwick
  • Popular Post
Posted

Just wanted to comment on how impressed I am with this website. Has kept up brilliantly with the huge volume of traffic, especially in the regional threads. Job well done. 

  • Like 20
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Posted
1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

Slight shift west at 96 @sheikhy on GFS op.

This is one of the strange times we actually want the low to remain strong, as the stronger it is, the quicker it heads north and drags up more WAA.

gfsnh-0-96 (4).png

Steps in the right direction 

gfs-1-108 (1).png

gfs-1-114.png

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted
8 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Slight shift west at 96 @sheikhy on GFS op.

This is one of the strange times we actually want the low to remain strong, as the stronger it is, the quicker it heads north and drags up more WAA.

gfsnh-0-96 (4).png

Not sure it is better if you want battleground snow

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

True, I'm looking at it from the longevity angle.

Absolutely, half a day of snow to rain then mild or potential for a scandi high and....  

Edited by Griff
  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Popular Post
Panayiotis Seasoned

Panayiotis

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Popular Post
Posted (edited)

As per my earlier post,

I showed concern over the UKMO 00z. Well those worries have gone with the 12z and the UKMO is showing the much better scenario which is in line with the other models- the high remaining north over Scandi between 120-144hrs and the winds cutting back SW underneath. Here are the 00z vs the 12z:

 

3C804BB3-6F68-4BBA-8F50-0A116A0A1881.png

A45B9F31-27DE-4B83-895C-5CC5EBCEE09D.png

62C64C57-3894-4954-B125-812E5975223B.png

B94D4F04-A326-4A93-9B97-B06024D24CC3.png

Edited by Panayiotis
  • Like 8
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
MJB Accomplished

MJB

Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
Posted
1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

True, I'm looking at it from the longevity angle.

Dry longevity is no good if I'm honest , take the battleground scenario while its an option 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted (edited)

Day 6 charts

UKMO

image.thumb.gif.7d1b4d8fcbfb159c01de25a012da41a4.gif
 

GFS

image.thumb.png.4c1c3b0c5aedf91fa68642ed2879b584.png

Good general agreement on a south to south east flow, so remaining cold at the surface even if the 850s start to lift. All about how the cold air is able to travel west later on and how quick and what position the high will finally take. The GFS looks a little better with that ridge (less yellow/orange), which will be easier for the jet stream to cut through.

Actually I think the GFS might go very cold into week 2.

Edited by Captain Shortwave
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Climate Man Seasoned

Climate Man

Posted
  • Location: Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Very Cold, Very Snowy
  • Location: Midlands
Posted
1 minute ago, MJB said:

Dry longevity is no good if I'm honest , take the battleground scenario while its an option 

But dry cold reduces ground temps etc and often there will be a battleground eventually....I can wait.

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Notty Community Regular

Notty

Posted
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL
Posted
1 minute ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Day 6 charts

UKMO

image.thumb.gif.7d1b4d8fcbfb159c01de25a012da41a4.gif
 

GFS

image.thumb.png.4c1c3b0c5aedf91fa68642ed2879b584.png

Good general agreement on a south to south east flow, so remaining cold at the surface even if the 850s start to lift. All about how the cold air is able to travel west later on and how quick and what position the high will finally take. The GFS looks a little better with that ridge (less yellow/orange), which will be easier for the jet stream to cut through.

Are there any good pattern matches from the past for a similar situation to the Day 6 charts above?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Posted
3 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

It's only going to be a short lived dry spell. 

Then GFS orientation MIGHT deliver the deep cold  pool here at around 216

gfsnh-0-162 (8).png

180

gfsnh-0-180 (2).png

gfsnh-1-180 (1).png

  • Like 7
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Panayiotis Seasoned

Panayiotis

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
Posted

Umm GFS likely to deliver the coldest run of the winter (and probably of the last few years). Trigger shortwave and everything in the Atlantic undercutting. Could we see the -20C 850hpa get to the UK?

AF0D9669-2490-4BAA-8F86-B44923F043A7.png

774F47E0-7169-472F-B739-E6E8616A0EA0.png

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites
MJB Accomplished

MJB

Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
Posted
9 minutes ago, MJB said:

Dry longevity is no good if I'm honest , take the battleground scenario while its an option 

ok ok I will settle for this lol

image.thumb.png.56f17df4527cbea45988b6a41e597269.png

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Popular Post
Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Popular Post
Posted (edited)

Day 8

image.thumb.png.859277aa25f4abb32c0835e9d5f3f3e7.png

Beasterly commeth 

Likely to be the coldest operational I have ever seen, this is pretty much the holy grail run.

Edited by Captain Shortwave
  • Like 19
Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Popular Post
Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Popular Post
Posted

Good lord!!!

image.thumb.png.cdad9ab0ffea8ffc16e3c82096aad896.png

Not deep FI either.  Wowzer, this could be some spell.

  • Like 11
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share
Go to topic listing
×
×
  • Create New...