Model thread discussion - cold spell looming

[Battleground Snow]

22 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Yup for next Monday I'd say the following members can be clustered into these categories (broadly):

Cold anticyclonic/ SE winds = OP, Control, P2, P6, P7, P17, P21, P26, P29 ( a few of these develop easterlies shortly after)

Mild S / SW'ly / W winds = P1, P3, P8, P9, P10, P11, P14, P15, P18, P20, P23, P24, P25, P27, P28, P30

Easterly = P4, P5, P12, P13, P16, P19, P22

I'd prefer to get the easterly in early next week as the ground will be very cold and any snow should quickly settle. Waiting longer just means more scope for things to go wrong. 

This tells me the gefs are not useful in this scenario, and won't resolve it for a while yet

[Derecho]

3 minutes ago, MJB said:

Score draw then 16-16 

Cold v Mild 

Yup, the more the cold air hangs on this weekend, the better the chance of an easterly coming in quickly. The fact that the Control and the OP both indicate things are remaining cold, leads me to suggest the milder ens have gone off on one, like they did this week... although they can't be discounted at this stage.

Edited February 7, 2021 by Quicksilver1989

[CentralSouthernSnow]

1 hour ago, That ECM said:

T216 14 of the 30. Sorry if you are on your phone not my fault there’s just loads of good ones.

Some how gem got in there but you get the idea eh?

 

 

 

Not those channel lows going into France again! Story of this winter

[Tim Bland]

Latest Euro 4 is streamtastic from tonight with many areas also getting a pasting tomorrow. I wouldn’t be surprised to see an Amber a learning added to some other eastern areas 

[StingJet]

Keeping a close eye now on the formation of convergence lines over the north sea ("Streamers"), as these will have a big impact on where heavy, prolonged snow showers will form / fall over the coming days.

The current NetWeather radar imagery is tracking the first convergence line to form across the north sea, into north east Scotland

06z Fax

Monday T+24 06z

Monday T+36 12z

Tuesday T+48 00z

Tuesday T+60 12z

Wednesday T+72 00z, also note the occlusion off over northern France, potential for the South Coast?

Wednesday T+96 12z, easterly wind easing somewhat, thus reducing the penetration of showers across the country east to west

By Friday as the wind veers more to a south easterly, loose the fetch loose the potential for Convergence Shower bands (Streamers)

Eyes then on the LP trying to push in from the w / sw with its associated fronts interacting with the "in place" cold air mass over the UK

 

[MJB]

33 minutes ago, Malarky said:

Isn't the direction of travel more important? Can we look at a similar comparison of how the models saw that date 24-48 hours ago?

The way it chops and changes it would be a brave man to call which way 

[Troubleatmill]

12 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Latest Euro 4 is streamtastic from tonight with many areas also getting a pasting tomorrow. I wouldn’t be surprised to see an Amber a learning added to some other eastern areas 

Don't think bit can be so often you see the over 2m of snow shading on these charts anywhere in the UK!

[CentralSouthernSnow]

9 minutes ago, StingJet said:

Keeping a close eye now on the formation of convergence lines over the north sea ("Streamers"), as these will have a big impact on where heavy, prolonged snow showers will form / fall over the coming days.

The current NetWeather radar imagery is tracking the first convergence line to form across the north sea, into north east Scotland

06z Fax

Monday T+24 06z

Monday T+36 12z

Tuesday T+48 00z

Tuesday T+60 12z

Wednesday T+72 00z, also note the occlusion off over northern France, potential for the South Coast?

Wednesday T+96 12z, easterly wind easing somewhat, thus reducing the penetration of showers across the country east to west

By Friday as the wind veers more to a south easterly, loose the fetch loose the potential for Convergence Shower bands (Streamers)

Eyes then on the LP trying to push in from the w / sw with its associated fronts interacting with the "in place" cold air mass over the UK

 

From some charts the front is stalling southwest/west. What do you think? Could it push east from what these models show? 

[Rob K]

38 minutes ago, Malarky said:

Isn't the direction of travel more important? Can we look at a similar comparison of how the models saw that date 24-48 hours ago?

From 24 hours ago the trend is colder, but from 12 or 6 hours ago the trend is milder. The 18Z ensemble last night was really good for continued cold and the 0Z was also pretty good but the 6Z is a definite wobble back to the milder side. All very finely balanced though and so much scatter - I mean, this coming Saturday could have a max of -2C or +12C here, let alone what happens next week.

[Griff]

2 minutes ago, Rob K said:

From 24 hours ago the trend is colder, but from 12 or 6 hours ago the trend is milder. The 18Z ensemble last night was really good for continued cold and the 0Z was also pretty good but the 6Z is a definite wobble back to the milder side. All very finely balanced though and so much scatter - I mean, this coming Saturday could have a max of -2C or +12C here, let alone what happens next week.

I'd keep a closer eye on gem and ecm. When they start definitively trending towards gfs I'd be concerned.

[StingJet]

25 minutes ago, CentralSouthernSnow said:

From some charts the front is stalling southwest/west. What do you think? Could it push east from what these models show? 

At the moment mate too far off to call, I'll be keeping a close eye on the Fax charts to see how the LPs out in the Atlantic develop as we run through the week.

From the Beebs perspective though  - Thursday pm the "Battleground" is poised  (all very much "potential" at this range)

Thursday into Friday

By Saturday 06z 

Edited February 7, 2021 by StingJet

[Frosty.]

I feel the ECM 0z ensemble mean would be a V for Victory for coldies... meaning, no return to the usual Atlantic mild crap!..fingers crossed!.. ...in the meantime..Enjoy the freeze! .  

Edited February 7, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Frigid]

18 minutes ago, Rob K said:

From 24 hours ago the trend is colder, but from 12 or 6 hours ago the trend is milder. The 18Z ensemble last night was really good for continued cold and the 0Z was also pretty good but the 6Z is a definite wobble back to the milder side. All very finely balanced though and so much scatter - I mean, this coming Saturday could have a max of -2C or +12C here, let alone what happens next week.

For me it looks colder than the 18Z. This is all speculation tho, things can change.

     

 

[Battleground Snow]

MJO update,

I make that 14 more days in phase 7 according to the ECM, add another 7 days for the the lag thats 21 days of enhanced blocking opportunity in our locale, with that cold pool floating around eastern and central Europe, exciting times may lie ahead!

 

[sheikhy]

Just now, Battleground Snow said:

MJO update,

I make that 14 more days in phase 7 according to the ECM, add another 7 days for the the lag thats 21 days of enhanced blocking opportunity in our locale, with that cold pool floating around eastern and central Europe, exciting times may lie ahead!

 

Cant wait for your 12z update on the gfs!!more westward corrections hopefully!!!

[Battleground Snow]

2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Cant wait for your 12z update on the gfs!!more westward corrections hopefully!!!

I'm more interested in the Ukmo at 144, it's overnight run looked at bit off at 144.

ECM 06z at 72 attached here. -11 virtually over the entire country including Cornwall doesn't happen very often.

[CentralSouthernSnow]

35 minutes ago, StingJet said:

At the moment mate too far off to call, I'll be keeping a close eye on the Fax charts to see how the LPs out in the Atlantic develop as we run through the week.

From the Beebs perspective though  - Thursday pm the "Battleground" is poised  (all very much "potential" at this range)

Thursday into Friday

By Saturday 06z 

You shouldn’t go by bbc graphics 

[MJB]

13 minutes ago, CentralSouthernSnow said:

You shouldn’t go by bbc graphics 

Be out of date now anyway 

[wellington boot]

Can someone who has been monitoring the short term modelling over the past few days offer an informed opinion on how much further North this LP currently affecting the SE ended up than the model average suggested, if that makes sense?

I think the GFS showed warmer 850s and the LP further North than many were forecasting yesterday, and obviously the MO forecasted a colder and snowier event, and that forecast will have been data led, so clearly there was significant variation in output. On the other hand, by yesterday, there appeared to be general consensus that the LP would stay further south and colder air would predominate from the early hours of Sunday morning.

I'm interested in how the broader 24-48 hour modelling of this current event aligns with what we are currently seeing.

[sheikhy]

1 hour ago, Battleground Snow said:

I'm more interested in the Ukmo at 144, it's overnight run looked at bit off at 144.

ECM 06z at 72 attached here. -11 virtually over the entire country including Cornwall doesn't happen very often.

You know what i love about this chart!!its the fact that the ukmo had a more southeast flow the other day so showers going direct west north west!!now they will be going west south west for my area with the more north east flow!!

[CentralSouthernSnow]

1 hour ago, Battleground Snow said:

I'm more interested in the Ukmo at 144, it's overnight run looked at bit off at 144.

ECM 06z at 72 attached here. -11 virtually over the entire country including Cornwall doesn't happen very often.

Omg! Is this showers coming south west? 

[StingJet]

1 hour ago, MJB said:

Be out of date now anyway 

I used the BBC graphics purely to demonstrate the "potential" of the up and coming battleground event towards the end of the week. From my point of view, the Beeb are as good as any at this range.

"Be out of date now anyway"    this is true , just updated at 15:04. That said that applies to just about everything to do with "The Weather".  unless you are at T +0  

[Norrance]

There are other threads to discuss BBC forecasts and graphics. Please use them.

Thanks.

[Battleground Snow]

Icon at 156 with a notable shift west and more vertical WAA, massive scandi high. It was the most Eastern solution earlier so probably just a step inline with the other models though.

Edit, still bitter by 180, especially in the east.

 

Edited February 7, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[Andypvfc]

3 hours ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Lol.warm!

Tbf compared to 2010 when we got -15 a few nights, that's tropical.