Model thread discussion - cold spell looming

[Drifter]

Thicknesses of around 504dm for northern parts, sub 510dm for most. 

[Battleground Snow]

4 minutes ago, Drifter said:

Surely that would bring snow showers to all. The useless precip charts keep my part of central southern England dry throughout this run. 

Yes, unless the sea has froze by then, there would be epic showers around, maybe even thunder snow

[sheikhy]

Very good mean at 192 hours!!are we going towards  gem scenario!!what would help is a push further west early on at 120 hours on the 12zs!!

[Fozfoster]

JFF but WOW

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

06z first one to show a bigger shove from the Atlantic before getting repelled properly.  One of many outcomes but worth watching as the development of the Scandi HP occurs.  It’s at it’s developing stage it’s at it’s weakest.  The entrenched cold will help against any eastward push. 

 BFTP

[Lukesluckybunch]

5 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Very good mean at 192 hours!!are we going towards  gem scenario!!what would help is a push further west early on at 120 hours on the 12zs!!

I would say the mean isn't as good as the 0Z mainly because there is more of a southerly influence.could do with it a bit further West.but is it looking to stay cold all this week and weekend?

[sukayuonsensnow]

6 minutes ago, Fozfoster said:

JFF but WOW

Looking like a cold month for the UK. The Netherlands though.........

We will have to see if this trend continues, I do wonder though if The Atlantic will make more in roads before then.......

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

3 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

Decent upgrade on the GEFS 06z ensemble mean out to t192 vs the t204 on the 00z. There’s going to be some absolute beauties within the ensemble suite.

00z:

06z:

 

It’s all further east to my eye and not an upgrade?  But it’s not too important as the mean seems to vary like the Ops

 BFTP

[Battleground Snow]

2 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

It’s all further east to my eye and not an upgrade?  But it’s not too important as the mean seems to vary like the Ops

 BFTP

It's because the time steps are a bit out, more WAA is definitely going up on the 06z GEFS run which will mean the Scandi high is Further north if not further east.

Mean showing a few dropping off cliff at day 9.

 

[That ECM]

T216 14 of the 30. Sorry if you are on your phone not my fault there’s just loads of good ones.

Some how gem got in there but you get the idea eh?

 

 

 

Edited February 7, 2021 by That ECM

[sheikhy]

Just now, Battleground Snow said:

It's because the time steps are a bit out, more WAA is definitely going up on the 06z GEFS run which will mean the Scandi high is Further north if not further east.

Mean showing a few dropping off cliff at day 9.

 

Looks good to me mate!!got the ones for coventry?!

[Man With Beard]

34 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

Good morning all charts showing Scandinavian block taking over.Must comment on how 

Met office 30day maintained that Atlantic low pressure would not make any inroads into

UK after several days of GFS/ECM showing low pressure taking over along with milder temperatures 

also stated cold high pressure to take over all be it at the end of month,so all credit to Exeter/ Glosea 5.

Yes, fair play, a week ago the ECM clusters were all mild for mid month, but this morning the switch is complete - D10 shows HLB to our NE as the majority verdict, and there's no way for the Atlantic to pass.

The resultant weather depends on what happens underneath the high, and for that there is still variation. Something akin to cluster 1 keeps it cold over the UK with a 100% continental flow. The most bizarre thing I'm seeing on some runs is less cold air coming around the ne over the top of the high! That's ridiculous.

Does slightly have the feel of March 2013, when we simply couldn't get rid of the easterly for weeks.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

2 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

Yes, fair play, a week ago the ECM clusters were all mild for mid month, but this morning the switch is complete - D10 shows HLB to our NE as the majority verdict, and there's no way for the Atlantic to pass.

The resultant weather depends on what happens underneath the high, and for that there is still variation. Something akin to cluster 1 keeps it cold over the UK with a 100% continental flow. The most bizarre thing I'm seeing on some runs is less cold air coming around the ne over the top of the high! That's ridiculous.

Does slightly have the feel of March 2013, when we simply couldn't get rid of the easterly for weeks.

Funny you say that! I remember many people getting sick to the back teeth of it, as it carried on into April. They can be very stubborn to budge, once in place! 

Edited February 7, 2021 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[Battleground Snow]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Looks good to me mate!!got the ones for coventry?!

Even better I have Leicester at day 10. I reckon mean will head down towards -8 by day 12

[Derecho]

GFS 06z ens a fair bit milder from Saturday onwards up to T240(though temps still somewhat below average). Quite a few members entertaining the idea of mild southerlies turning to south-westerlies with the block remaining further east. Whether its just a blip is uncertain but there are still some colder ens members in there also.

The OP is on the cold side but has a decent amount of support. An increasing cluster towards mild however so next week is looking increasingly uncertain. It's worth noting that the EC ens this morning were cold.

Edited February 7, 2021 by Quicksilver1989

[MattStoke]

Raw data for my location.

Might be cold for quite some time if this morning’s GFS is anything to go by. Mind you, next Sunday looks a bit warm.

[sheikhy]

2 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Even better I have Leicester at day 10. I reckon mean will head down towards -8 by day 12

Fantastic set!!!also the milder ensembles which were there for friday or staurday pretty much diminishing (red circle) and some bring in even deeper cold between 13 and 17th  probably that cold vortex across europe being thrown across us (blue circle)!!....

[Lukesluckybunch]

7 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Raw data for my location.

Might be cold for quite some time if this morning’s GFS is anything to go by. Mind you, next Sunday looks a bit warm.

Lol.warm!

[Tim Bland]

34 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

T+384 charts never come close to happening. It's fine posting these charts (it's the model output thread after all), and I'm pleased that you like them, but I think most of us here have a bit of realism when it comes to anything at that timescale 

We all know it’s not likely to come off as shown that’s why we call it fantasy island. You still haven’t shown why you think it won’t happen or what you think will happen. As I said just coming on here to say “ain’t gonna happen” doesn’t add anything. If you are only interested in exact conditions and up to 5 days ahead you may as well just watch the TV weather forecast or log into the meto website

Anyhow ..back to model discussion. My FI chart I posted earlier is not that different to the 06z FI below. Looks like a definite trend now and detail won’t be certain until nearer the time but any warm up looks very temporary! 

[That ECM]

@feb1991blizzard

[SteveB]

13 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

GFS 06z ens a fair bit milder from Saturday onwards (though temps still somewhat below average. Quite a few members entertaining the idea of mild southerlies turning to south-westerlies with the block remaining further east. Whether its just a blip is uncertain but there are still some colder ens members in there also.

The OP is on the cold side but has a decent amount of support. An increasing cluster towards mild however so next week is looking increasingly uncertain. It's worth noting that the EC ens this morning were cold.

Wow, that would be a kick in the teeth for a prolonged cold spell. Was hoping the word mild wouldn't even figure in and post in here for another couple of weeks at least. 

[ICE COLD]

-18 into the east on the GFS op now . Just saying

[Derecho]

11 minutes ago, SteveB said:

Wow, that would be a kick in the teeth for a prolonged cold spell. Was hoping the word mild wouldn't even figure in and post in here for another couple of weeks at least. 

Yup for next Monday I'd say the following members can be clustered into these categories (broadly):

Cold anticyclonic/ SE winds = OP, Control, P2, P6, P7, P17, P21, P26, P29 ( a few of these develop easterlies shortly after)

Mild S / SW'ly / W winds = P1, P3, P8, P9, P10, P11, P14, P15, P18, P20, P23, P24, P25, P27, P28, P30

Easterly = P4, P5, P12, P13, P16, P19, P22

I'd prefer to get the easterly in early next week as the ground will be very cold and any snow should quickly settle. Waiting longer just means more scope for things to go wrong. 

Edited February 7, 2021 by Quicksilver1989

[MJB]

20 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Yup for next Monday I'd say the following members can be clustered into these categories (broadly):

Cold anticyclonic/ SE winds = OP, Control, P2, P6, P7, P17, P21, P26, P29 ( a few of these develop easterlies shortly after)

Mild S / SW'ly / W winds = P1, P3, P8, P9, P10, P11, P14, P15, P18, P20, P23, P24, P25, P27, P28, P30

Easterly = P4, P5, P12, P13, P16, P19, P22

I'd prefer to get the easterly in early next week as the ground will be very cold and any snow should quickly settle. Waiting longer just means more scope for things to go wrong. 

Score draw then 16-16 

Cold v Mild 

[Malarky]

1 minute ago, MJB said:

Score draw then 16-16 

Cold v Mild

Isn't the direction of travel more important? Can we look at a similar comparison of how the models saw that date 24-48 hours ago?

Edited February 7, 2021 by Malarky