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Model thread discussion - cold spell looming


Message added by Paul,

It's busy right now, so please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 
For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads
And for more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.
There's now also a cold spell chat and discusison thread.

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Posted
  • Location: Otley(Leeds)
  • Location: Otley(Leeds)
    1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

    I hope the high hasn't gone too far north east haha

    Deep FI , but it would look ok to me. Better than it being too far south 😂

    Edited by Harsh Climate
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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

    I hope the high hasn't gone too far north east haha

    Normally we worried it goes to far south and east!!battleground that is almost the perfect!!remains freezing for england into next week!

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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
    Just now, sheikhy said:

    Normally we worried it goes to far south and east!!battleground that is almost the perfect!!remains freezing for england into next week!

    Just a little bit different in placement on the Scandi high 😆

    Could be a big battleground event ahead tho

    gfsnh-0-210 (7).png

    gfsnh-0-216 (9).png

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    Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury

    Slightest of corrections and it really is BINGO !

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    Just now, Battleground Snow said:

    Just a little bit different in placement on the Scandi high 😆

    Could be a big battleground event ahead tho

    gfsnh-0-210 (7).png

    gfsnh-0-216 (9).png

    Most encouraging thing is that cold pool has moved further north and west in europe!!yesterday we were worried its gona sink further south and east!!

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    Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
    1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

    Most encouraging thing is that cold pool has moved further north and west in europe!!yesterday we were worried its gona sink further south and east!!

    The middle ground of those 2 images would be just about perfect, I expect the mean ENS will be another improvement on the medium to long term temps!! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    2 hours ago, Tim Bland said:

     

     

    Aye, Atlantic looks further East on 06Z, as a snowfan much prefer this to the 00Z, risky though as milder air into the west, can't get rid of the quote

    prectypeuktopo.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
    2 minutes ago, CentralSouthernSnow said:

    Could someone tell me what these charts would end up with in the end? 

    Cold out east , Atlantic out west = huge snow event at day 10. Will look different next run through. Most important is the tiny push west of the pattern at 132

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    Posted
  • Location: Wolverhampton
  • Location: Wolverhampton
    8 minutes ago, BurwellWeatherWatch said:

    Tim's point/question was a very pertinent one. No problem at all if you are only interested in 3+ days - same as the majority of the UK population! But for +72, most apps will give a good guide (except for specifics of snowfall in these sorts of setups etc). This thread has been at its most helpful when members have explained what is shown at longer timeframes and assessed the different probabilities of it. Longer term cold evolutions seem to be entirely within probability at the moment. It's much more difficult for a member to explain why/how etc than for someone to simply say it won't/can't happen.

    It's merely an opinion that's all, if the situation over the the UK in 15 days time is anything similar to the current one, then fine i'll hold my hands up and admit an error of judgement, it's just that these setups have happened in the past and almost totally collapsed, and please don't ask me on any date(s) as my recall is not great.

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    Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury

    image.thumb.png.c5d77d9fab7e5c1d0875952bc1fcc30a.png

    This block isn't giving up is it 

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    Posted
  • Location: Oxford
  • Location: Oxford

    Good morning all charts showing Scandinavian block taking over.Must comment on how 

    Met office 30day maintained that Atlantic low pressure would not make any inroads into

    UK after several days of GFS/ECM showing low pressure taking over along with milder temperatures 

    also stated cold high pressure to take over all be it at the end of month,so all credit to Exeter/ Glosea 5.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

    More gefs on board I would suggest.😄

    C8D0022E-FD09-403E-BE8B-667BC19C7AB7.png

    4096BF30-57DE-4E79-A90F-2FB7183F7269.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Cwmbran. South East Wales 300ft ASL
  • Location: Cwmbran. South East Wales 300ft ASL

    Am I correct in that if this block is holding firm then we will have a very cold but dry couple of weeks??

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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
    3 minutes ago, WINTRY WALES said:

    Am I correct in that if this block is holding firm then we will have a very cold but dry couple of weeks??

    Day 6-9 looks very dry, but after this it may not be,

    Edit, there may be bits and pieces of snow in the west as systems fizzle out in day 6-9

     

    Edited by Battleground Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: Oxford
  • Location: Oxford
    Just now, WINTRY WALES said:

    Am I correct in that if this block is holding firm then we will have a very cold but dry couple of weeks??

    Hi yes temperatures will depend on orientation of high pressure,more inclined to stay dry but

    not totally.

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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
    6 minutes ago, That ECM said:

    More gefs on board I would suggest.😄

    C8D0022E-FD09-403E-BE8B-667BC19C7AB7.png

    4096BF30-57DE-4E79-A90F-2FB7183F7269.png

    At 168 on the gefs, the Scandi high is marginally further north, but you'd expect these to be even slower in catching up to the gem potential outcome than the OP

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    Posted
  • Location: North east Hampshire
  • Location: North east Hampshire
    Just now, ALL ABOARD said:

    Unreal cold 

    gfsnh-1-342.thumb.png.8555e7f99b79e5dcccddc35cb55c4ff6.png

    Surely that would bring snow showers to all. The useless precip charts keep my part of central southern England dry throughout this run. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Anything except blazing hot summers!
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
    1 hour ago, Tim Bland said:

    Ensembles show it’s possible as do other models like GEM which could evolve to a similar solution. @Paul_1978@DIS1970 why do you think it’s unlikely and what do you think is likely? Which model do you think has the correct pattern and can you share the image?  That would be more  akin to ‘model discussion’ than just saying ‘not going to happen’ or ‘it’s FI so bin it’. Fair enough if you think that but if every member just wrote things like that we would just have a very boring thread🤔

    icon stays cold out to Friday but still manages to push some some light snow across most areas. Perhaps some heavier into the south west / South Wales 

    5B0AB3C9-CFD1-4D5A-91C0-60F52CD24619.png

    B6CBB43E-69A9-487F-97AD-59A811D23AF1.png

    T+384 charts never come close to happening. It's fine posting these charts (it's the model output thread after all), and I'm pleased that you like them, but I think most of us here have a bit of realism when it comes to anything at that timescale 🙂

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