Model thread discussion - cold spell looming

[geordiekev]

30 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Icon a little too far east with the pattern at 180 , however it was the most eastern solution on all of the 12z runs too, still very cold at surface

Wtr Icon & others how they handle the high pressure over the Pacific & it linking to the Arctic high seems to control retrogression West of the US low & the Scandi/Gricey high, an area I've been keeping eye on as been suspecting poss Atlantic Omega block for couple of days.

Gfs at bottom as example

Edited February 7, 2021 by geordiekev

[Battleground Snow]

UKMO at 144, looks good I think, but next frame is the important one

Edited February 7, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[Phil Blake]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

UKMO at 144, looks good I think, but next frame is the important one

Heights going up but the core of the surface high over Germany. Could do with it further north. Of course I could be talking complete garbage. 

[geordiekev]

GFS 144, up she blows to Scandi, even the map looks shocked

Edited February 7, 2021 by geordiekev

[Battleground Snow]

GFS is a tad further east with the pattern than the 18z run at 150, let's see how it develops from here

[Snowman.]

You can see it on the NH view but the UKMO has shortwave of Scandinavia that goes south. Hello gets build behind this and toward Greenland too. Could be a trigger shortwave to send energy under the high to cut it off. 
 

Really nice start

[geordiekev]

The so called spoiler low has taken 1 look at the block & decided, no, I'm off home and returned to the Canadian vortex, should allow the UK high to expand

Edited February 7, 2021 by geordiekev

[Panayiotis]

24 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

UKMO at 144, looks good I think, but next frame is the important one

I actually disagree here, looks like the high pressure is collapsing on the UKMO which runs the risk of the low pressure going over the top. Possible spanner but we need more runs and will be interesting to see how the ECM handles it.

Edited February 7, 2021 by Panayiotis

[geordiekev]

Low goes underneath to prop up the high on GFS at 204

Edited February 7, 2021 by geordiekev

[Battleground Snow]

Opposing views above ^^^ . I'm not sure where the next frame will go to be honest, looks complicated.

GFS at 216, still very cold but not as good as the pub run

 

[geordiekev]

3 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Opposing views above ^^^ . I'm not sure where the next frame will go to be honest, looks complicated.

GFS at 216, still very cold but not as good as the pub run

 

Yep the UKMO looks like it wants to barrage through the block, whereas GFS takes it over the top to merge with the main Canadian PV, the 168 mark seems to be the decider

[Battleground Snow]

Gem at 162, sending lots of WAA up, but the deep cold is out east, could be cracker at day 8 and 9 though

 

[geordiekev]

At 258 on GFS holds the block in place & sends the next bowling ball over the top, so looking good though no immediate 2nd beast, temps remain frigid & chance opens up for higher amplification 

[Battleground Snow]

Gem at day 9! Look at that cold pool coming straight at us

 

Edited February 7, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[geordiekev]

Yep GFS looks primed, second bowling ball struck out and high now split off prime for the cold to flow in below the block

[Summerstorm]

15 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Gem at day 9! Look at that cold pool coming straight at us

Yep saw the chart at Day 6 and knew the Scandi High was coming as it was much further West than the GFS at that point.

As we know of course the GFS has a problem with being over progressive so maybe let's how much support it's evolution has in the GEFS. 

Secondly the blocking over the Arctic and Northern Russia was better on the GEM which helps support the ridge as it goes up. 

In the meantime the GFS fancies an excursion off to Greenland in FI fairly feasible evolution with MJO heading into Phase 8 in a couple of weeks. Although I would expect Retrogression from Scandi to be the more likely route to get there instead based upon current direction of travel.  

 

Edited February 7, 2021 by Summerstorm

[geordiekev]

GFS 306 here comes the real cold making a comeback

[Battleground Snow]

The GEFS have shifted the low a tiny bit east at 174 maybe only 200 miles, but it will have big knock on effect where the Scandi high sets up.

You would hope it's been a little progressive with Atlantic lows like usual and the gem will be closer to the mark, ECM may be more telling later on.

** 4 days of minus -10 uppers in London is impressive on that chart too*

Edited February 7, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[geordiekev]

GFS 318 sees the -10 850s returning to EA

[geordiekev]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

The GEFS have shifted the low a tiny bit east at 174 maybe only 200 miles, but it will have big knock on effect where the Scandi high sets up.

You would hope it's been a little progressive with Atlantic lows like usual and the gem will be closer to the mark, ECM may be more telling later on.

 

 

GFS suggests it's going over the top so hopefully shouldn't make too much difference 

[geordiekev]

At 342 on GFS the messy lows over Greenland have cleared and looks like another prop on its way to bolster, could it be an Atlantic Omega?

[geordiekev]

Wow, not a Beasterly but wow,

2010esque

[geordiekev]

Well popped my cherry & done my first ever NW run commentary in 13 years. Always helps when the models follow my script & what an end.

Very 2010esque, 

Dec 2010 v GFS 380 (aka Angel o t' North)

Edited February 7, 2021 by geordiekev

[geordiekev]

The GFS 0z isn't a bad run, it's no 18z but a different evolution to something special & cold almost throughout.

Snow as expected till Friday for wide wrath, Eastern & SE, on Tue a slider may clip the SW corner & the Friday low bumps into the cold giving Wales & West a chance.

The block then builds over us, amplifies and then retrogresses providing a dry cold set up with only a short spell of positive daytime maxima before Northerly winds set in towards the end of the run and a return of the -10 850s in a strengthened Northerly flow

So much excitement before then & many changes I'm sure. 

I know it's day 14 but if we get an Omega Atlantic block, they can be hard to shift as in Dec '10

 

Edited February 7, 2021 by geordiekev

[That ECM]

As two mean charts that far out, that is a strong signal.