Model thread discussion - cold spell looming

[Mike Poole]

3 minutes ago, radiohead said:

I don't think the UK would have seen uppers that cold since 1991? Not 100% sure though.

 

We did in 2018 I think, but that was into March.  Think we got a -18 at some point?

[NeilN]

All I'll say if them uppers did come off - wow! Didn't February 1986 have that as well? 

[Daniel*]

GFS 18z is probably the coldest run I’ve ever seen the sea would start to freeze! Looking at ens plenty warm 850s which doesn’t necessarily translate to surface warming, but then drops away very cold again.

[Allseasons-Si]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Gefs is a big step towards a cut off scandi upper ridge ....

actually, it’s more than a step ....

it has a mean cut off  scandi upper  ridge by day 9/10!

Yes just looked at that now with colder winds backing more SE than the 12z

and how much of a blip would this mild episode be?,we have been here before over recent days

the mean tanking below -5 again in the ext.

[Sawel]

7 minutes ago, Don said:

Probably more January 1987 I would have thought?

How about the beast from 2018/19? - Some people don't realise or forget how cold the uppers were!

 

[Scott Ingham]

19 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Yes Scott then phase 8/1 for complete retrogression for a northerly afterwards,all roads lead to cold at the moment,lets see if w can get the second bite of the cherry from 192 the a third one later on,seems plausable but don't take my word for it lol

BTW,i hope that your mother is doing OK mate

Ill take a look at that tomorrow morning but there has definitely been additional support for a move into 8. 

The length of time in phase 7 coupled with a stratosphere extremely susceptible to trop lead patterns is creating the perfect storm.

You can nearly deem the vortex null and void and place more emphasis on the tropics due to this. 

To me it gives me more confidence predicting tropical lead weather patterns. Very similar to the summer due to the vortex being non existant

I had doubts for a day or two that a lump of the strat into the north atlantic might scupper things but a combination of dense cold and extra amplification timed for this exact week meant the extra atlantic oomph is only going to be a positive because it aids waa north as low pressure systems stall and not get east of the irish coast.

If we hadnt had the 3 strat warmings im surr the low pressure would barrel through 

Case of good background signals crucially timing right and working like clock work.

Also to back up chios comments yesterday shows you dont need ensemble guidance to second guess weather 2 weeks ahead if you can visualise a way forward applying experience and logic

P.s she is loads better mate off a ventilator and if she can keep her oxygen levels low may be home soon!

Edited February 6, 2021 by Scott Ingham

[Purga]

Short ENS show a majority of members now trending to extended cold or very cold after a brief slightly less cold phase of the 850hPa uppers.

The surface 2M show the temps under the HP inversion just continue very cold throughout for the vast majority.

 

Edited February 6, 2021 by Purga

[Cavehill Snow]

51 minutes ago, weathercold said:

These charts really are astonishing, how many LRF’s are a bust if these charts come to fruition. We are on the cusp of an historic February. Extraordinary.

I thought most LRFs were toast by New Year every year!!

[DIS1970]

24 minutes ago, spayne said:

it’ll all end in tears, ramping up a chart 15 days away, will no one learn..!!!!

No.

[Sweatyman]

24 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

You think you seen it all in the last week and then this comes out 

Blimey my Eyes are frozen!

[Howie]

4 minutes ago, Purga said:

Short ENS show a majority of members now trending to extended cold or very cold after a brief slightly less cold phase of the 850hPa uppers.

The surface 2M show the temps under the HP inversion just continue very cold throughout for the vast majority.

 

This is really starting to look like a quite prolonged and severe spell isn't it?

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, Howie said:

This is really starting to look like a quite prolonged and severe spell isn't it?

Yes, it certainly is isn’t it.  Good runs today from GEM, ECM, UKMO as far as it goes, and GFS especially the pub run. It is consistent with background signals MJO and AAM, and also with the downwelling of the SSW including latest warming.  So it looks about as nailed on cold spell as one could wish for.  What is less certain and will require the detail to unfold, is extent of snow....but we’ll be watching!

[Frigid]

Thames frost fair anyone 

[BLIZZARDMAN]

NOW THIS IS BEYOND IMAGINATION, WOWW. I WANT EVERYONE TO FRAME THIS AND REMEMBER IT THIS TIME NEXT YEAR WHEN WE'RE LOOKING AT THE ZONAL TRAIN.

[Howie]

3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, it certainly is isn’t it.  Good runs today from GEM, ECM, UKMO as far as it goes, and GFS especially the pub run. It is consistent with background signals MJO and AAM, and also with the downwelling of the SSW including latest warming.  So it looks about as nailed on cold spell as one could wish for.  What is less certain and will require the detail to unfold, is extent of snow....but we’ll be watching!

I feel tingly

[Guest]

The GFS Ops run was staggering but Unsurprisingly is right towards the bottom of the ensembles pack. There’s a huge 20c plus spread around the 15th so absolutely anything is possible. 

[nic]

25 minutes ago, Don said:

Probably more January 1987 I would have thought?

-18c uppers here in Jan 87 but that was an exceptionally cold couple of days - struggled to get above -5C for 72 hours....

[feb1991blizzard]

GEFS - Easterly with colder air actually heading back towards the UK on a T300+ mean chart.

[Smiler1709]

What I will say on the subject of extreme cold, people rightly saying that it’s all going to go badly when these beauts don’t materialise, but what I will say is the trend is there, yes it most likely won’t be like this come the day, but the way things are going models wise I wouldn’t be surprised if we’re talking about the February of 2021 for years to come. Sweet dreams

[Frigid]

I'd be quite scared if that came to fruition  We could be on the cusp of a lengthy cold spell here looking at all the models!

    

Feb 1991 maybe paying a visit on the 30 year anniversary. Or 1986, even better.

[Mike Poole]

6 minutes ago, nic said:

-18c uppers here in Jan 87 but that was an exceptionally cold couple of days - struggled to get above -5C for 72 hours....

Here’s the chart, that is, we believe the record....

 

Edited February 7, 2021 by Mike Poole

[pyrotech]

27 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Yes Scott then phase 8/1 for complete retrogression for a northerly afterwards,all roads lead to cold at the moment,lets see if w can get the second bite of the cherry from 192 the a third one later on,seems plausable but don't take my word for it lol

BTW,i hope that your mother is doing OK mate

Wow guys really looking ahead, thats next weekend for phase 8 and 24th for effect

Although phase 6 is Scandinavian blocking 7/8 in Greenland blocking and into phase 1 is Atlantic taking over.

With the lag effect we do have a fortnight plus of opportunity with Easterly  then most  likely Northerly and if we get that far it can have its phase 1,  i know thats forecast but in all honesty i see phase 8 into COD, but we will see.

 

 

[Allseasons-Si]

A final word or two from me..

this is a great week coming up for possibly everyone seeing snow and settling with no marginality even close to the coast

we have a dusting here from earlier showers and the coldest uppers are not even here yet

great upgrades also from the models today on that Scandi high and it looks as though the milder uppers from the SW are getting cancelled out all the while from run to run

i am loving this cold spell and it has only just got going and it could last for some time

and remember that there is a level 3 cold weather alert out now so please take care of your elderly neighbors and the vulnerable if need be

take care all and don't do anything stupid like driving off a 100 miles+ to see the snow if you don't get any,...it's not worth a hefty fine

 night .

[nic]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Here’s the chart, that is, we believe the record....

that still amazes me - 12 inches and you couldn't have a snowball fight with it!!

 

[Battleground Snow]

New winner? P6

I have a feeling 330am icon club will have a few more members tomorrow