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Model thread discussion - cold spell looming

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

It's busy right now, so please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 
For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads. 
And for more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.
There's now also a cold spell chat and discusison thread.

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GSP Enthusiast

GSP

Posted
  • Location: Isle of Canvey, Thames Estuary
  • Location: Isle of Canvey, Thames Estuary
Posted

Can see the north sea is firing up again as we get hit with Baltic 2.

 

image.thumb.png.179e33f9e24fb7ee0d30ad6bc6bdea56.png

image.thumb.png.a9bad4e02e05f2318440b716ea68c74a.png

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Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
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Posted

The GFS successfully sheers away the base of the ridge and allows the Scandi high to become fully detached with the jet stream running underneath. 

image.thumb.png.218dfea74e44943439c97d050053d186.png   image.thumb.png.7491e841bdfec6bf6f34d1830f74a7af.png   

850s of -14C into the south on this run.

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sheikhy Maestro

sheikhy

Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
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Posted

Goodness me this is getting ridiculous now!!!scandi high in full flow at 204 hours!!!ice days!! iceicles!!frozen boiler pipes the whole lot on this run!!

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted (edited)

well into double digit negative uppers re-appearing in SE England at 216, not low enough heights for big convection or cold uppers further North - YET

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Matt H Accomplished

Matt H

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge
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Posted

The pub run is an absolute stonker. Model watching is heaven for coldies at the moment.

0FBC0A43-1981-476B-80B6-B39DCAB58FD8.thumb.png.f09547fc52823b226f1129af39467116.pngC9102794-EBC1-4A7E-AF50-B8260271D5C0.thumb.png.c1c88f3a9a9e4cd69cd71ccf405d03a6.png

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Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
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Posted

Absolutely sensational model output at the moment, beats anything on TV!

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
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Posted

Fascinating output !

Some incredible cold on both sides of the Atlantic .  A few earlier tweaks where there could be a bit more trough disruption with more energy going se from base of the upstream trough and pandemonium would have broken out in this thread !

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Man With Beard Maestro

Man With Beard

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
Posted

AROME 18Z shifts tomorrow's snow threat for the SE slightly further east. ARPEGE 18Z still pretty much on the same track. Who will be right? I'm not sure it matters in that area, if the front doesn't get you on Sunday, the streamers will by Monday

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Decemberof2010 Seasoned

Decemberof2010

Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: Bitter Cold in winter and Extreme heat in summer
  • Location: Leeds
Posted
1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Is there any support for this kinda scandi high from the mjo and other background signals?!!

There were a fair few ensembles going that way on the 12z. Will be interesting if they increase on the 18z

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted
1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Fascinating output !

Some incredible cold on both sides of the Atlantic .  A few earlier tweaks where there could be a bit more trough disruption with more energy going se from base of the upstream trough and pandemonium would have broken out in this thread !

It seems to be going that way Nick. It could be that as we get closer we see more and more energy slip underneath rather than going over. GFS seeing energy going under at this lead time...

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Battleground Snow Maestro

Battleground Snow

Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
Posted
Just now, nick sussex said:

Fascinating output !

Some incredible cold on both sides of the Atlantic .  A few earlier tweaks where there could be a bit more trough disruption with more energy going se from base of the upstream trough and pandemonium would have broken out in this thread !

I think we still have time Nick to get the orientation of the high even better and draw the whole cold pool over Europe towards us, and not just a part of it if WAA goes up a little west of this run

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Man With Beard Maestro

Man With Beard

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
Posted
6 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Lol at day 9 looks ❤️❤️

E23FFAEE-06D1-4679-AF93-5E9923CC0517.png

Did that really just happen?

Somehow it seems the logical progression at the moment, but very much depends on Thurs/Fri I feel, and how the Atlantic low disrupts

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The Giant Daddy Jackpot Rookie

The Giant Daddy Jackpot

Posted
  • Location: West Devon
  • Weather Preferences: We've hit the giant daddy jackpot!
  • Location: West Devon
Posted
3 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

T228 I can’t believe what’s happening

3A528252-1567-4724-BF38-8F4AFC3D7AFA.png

63217738-206A-4E53-9AAC-69D9A110A371.png

Yep, that ridging HIGH over Scandinavia is going to be key for longevity of this cold snap, likely to pull in even colder air if it establishes itself. Possibly extending the cold snap to 14 days or more if it holds.

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Uncertainty Accomplished

Uncertainty

Posted
  • Location: North West
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but the prevailing wind!
  • Location: North West
Posted
8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

well into double digit negative uppers re-appearing in SE England at 216, not low enough heights for big convection or cold uppers further North - YET

image.thumb.png.f80fd56ad5b6e4f1684f1bdb42bdf12d.png
I think you’re emboldened word is apt Feb. The most severe cold actually gets cut off on this albeit excellent run. There is still scope for upgrades for cold and most definitely for snow. As Nick says, only small alterations would be required to deliver a far more snowy outcome than the above.

Still early days with this one though, the EC a reminder that there remain many different final orientations and destinations to this high - but good confidence that there will be a high. And that for today is excellent progress...

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
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Posted (edited)

The UK coldies here want and deserve the deep purple incredible cold not the leftover -14 scraps ! Lol 

Lets aim high ! 

 

Edited by nick sussex
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pyrotech Enthusiast

pyrotech

Posted
  • Location: CARDIFF
  • Location: CARDIFF
Posted
5 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Is there any support for this kinda scandi high from the mjo and other background signals?!!

Yes phase 7 on 26th Jan, into phase 6 and now heading into Phase 7 again,  been 12 days since entered phase 7/6 which is right for influence Northern hemisphere. Discussed this few days back, Why models seemed to go with stronger jet due to temp contrast over USA and seemed to ignore effect of MJO. Seems models caught up now. 

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Weather of Mass Disruption Enthusiast

Weather of Mass Disruption

Posted
  • Location: Hucknall, Nottingham 100m (328ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Blizzards, Hoarfrost, Frost and Extremes
  • Location: Hucknall, Nottingham 100m (328ft) ASL
Posted
20 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Look at the dewpoints-

image.thumb.png.6eaf3097d70825f2507f17fb1c156b1e.png

Look a bit marginal! 

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Snowboy111 Enthusiast

Snowboy111

Posted
  • Location: Guernsey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, gales, snow, thunder and more snow
  • Location: Guernsey
Posted

Genuinely flabbergasted at these charts. Fantastic output tonight. Not sure I’ve seen -12 uppers over the Channel Islands before. Keep getting punched by the wife every time I’ve said ‘yesssss!!!’ 

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