Model thread discussion - cold spell looming

[snowice]

West England, Wales could be buried as the front stalls.

[sheikhy]

Anyone got the 2m temps for ecm!!!remarkably similar to gfs 12z tonight although a bit further south!!had a better start than gfs between 120 and 144 hours though!!so maybe it will have the high slightly further north tomorrow!

[Frigid]

Just now, Notty said:

Imagine this, bitterly cold under clear skies and snow cover and not a breath of wind.

Sub -10c temps on the snow covered fields for sure!

[Skullzrulerz]

22 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Something milder just into the south west & Ireland by next weekend ...

Typical Cornwall is always in the warm air  We always miss out

[Paul_1978]

On 05/02/2021 at 16:01, Paul_1978 said:

Unless there is a monumental shift in the models this afternoon, we will have to expect the cold spell is a Sunday to Friday event. It’s not a Feb 1991 repeat.

However, promising signs of the cold returning after a mild blip next weekend. 

Enjoy the week all - we spend half our lives chasing cold spells and we’re just about to get one, and the chase for the next one may just be around the corner!

Well well. I waited 24 hours, and I’m quoting my own post from yesterday.... Before the 12z’s on Friday, I was convinced that the cold spell was going to be a Sunday to Thursday affair. Run after run for a few days was consistently showing south-westerlys returning into Fri 12th Feb, across most models. 

And lo and behold, the “monumental switch” I referred to has only gone and actually happened!!

You would now think that as the Atlantic tries to push in later next week (and fails?) that somewhere will be up for a good dumping of snow as the fronts bump into the cold air, stall, and get pushed back?

And not only that we have a frigid week to come from the east. 

I’m not convinced yet we’ll be having a Feb 1991 repeat but you never know. Model watching at its best!

[Notty]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

and very foggy

Freezing fog and hoar frost for you I imagine

[MJB]

2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Here’s the scores on the doors at the end of the week. If I was in the central region I’d be desperate for the Atlantic to make it that far!   Overall it’s going to memorable for the overall coverage and longevity though and this is before any convective activity it’s probably missing...

And I am the D Grey smack in the middle of that lot with 0 lol 

[Tim Bland]

Just now, MJB said:

And I am the D Grey smack in the middle of that lot with 0 lol 

I wouldn’t worry, it almost definitely won’t work out like that. I get your frustration, if I still lived in Reading I’d be fuming at this run lol 

[StingJet]

5 minutes ago, snowice said:

West England, Wales could be buried as the front stalls.

lol apart from that dark green blob over me .....  nonetheless  ... fascinating potential over the next few days and out to months end for the UK as whole

Edited February 6, 2021 by StingJet

[Frosty.]

Looking at the ECM 12z operational day 10..that suggests frosty nights under a strong anticyclone..logical?....but why in gods name am I looking at day 10 when there is soooo much wintry weather to come before then???!..well I am autistic..so there’s that!

Edited February 6, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Weather-history]

4 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

and very foggy

 

2 minutes ago, Notty said:

Freezing fog and hoar frost for you I imagine

Could be a very dry airmass though.

[MattStoke]

3 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Anyone got the 2m temps for ecm!!!remarkably similar to gfs 12z tonight although a bit further south!!had a better start than gfs between 120 and 144 hours though!!so maybe it will have the high slightly further north tomorrow!

 

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

5 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Here’s the scores on the doors at the end of the week. If I was in the central region I’d be desperate for the Atlantic to make it that far!   Overall it’s going to memorable for the overall coverage and longevity though and this is before any convective activity it’s probably missing...

Tbh short term it's best to look at high res when picking out shower activity and troughs, 

Ecm rules many mid term and frontal activity but im sure the potential this wk has troughs and streamers written all over it 

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

6 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Here’s the scores on the doors at the end of the week. If I was in the central region I’d be desperate for the Atlantic to make it that far!   Overall it’s going to memorable for the overall coverage and longevity though and this is before any convective activity it’s probably missing...

Tbh short term it's best to look at high res when picking out shower activity and troughs, 

Ecm rules many mid term and frontal activity but im sure the potential this wk has troughs and streamers written all over it 

[georgiedre]

2 minutes ago, StingJet said:

lol apart from that dark green blob over me .....  nonetheless  ... fascinating potential over the next few days and out to months end for the UK as whole

No doubt this will change daily similar to the front that was meant to be crossing Thursday 

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

 

And we thought gfs was cold!!blimey!!!

[nick sussex]

I think the ECM highlights the difficulties in landing easterlies with deep cold pools and why they’re so rare .

There’s one thing getting a teasing looking Scandi high , it’s another matter to get that to orientate in the manner that delivers that .

This is why the Scandi high set up is crucial in the early stages as it sets your base camp point up Everest . 

I’m certainly though not bemoaning an excellent ECM run which delivers cold and snow and some severe night frosts , if you have snow a very good chance of that staying around for quite some time .

Indeed the trend since yesterday has been hugely encouraging for coldies and there are bound to be more changes , let’s hope this good trend continues to pick up steam .

[Bansobaby]

29 minutes ago, SteveB said:

What?

The post referred to the probability of snow lying for a while, I merely replied.....

[Scott Ingham]

1 hour ago, Frosty Winter said:

Look at the cluster of runs down to -15C by the 16th February as well.

Love that cluster i posted tuesday about the 17th being the date of a second surge of deep upper cold to top up the incredible surface cold looking more and more locked in!

[Anthony Burden]

ECM showing a very long spell of very cold weather with freezing temperatures,

it’s been a very long time since the south of U.K. has experienced low temperatures 

like charts are showing.If correct of course.

[Frosty_wsm]

11 minutes ago, snowice said:

West England, Wales could be buried as the front stalls.

Awesome chart, hope it turns out to be correct. 

[northwestsnow]

Well I always say mid Jan to mid Feb is prime time so EC scrapes into the window ...

Hats off to Bluearmy who was first to pick up on that surface high over Scandy days ago..

That very high will likely have enough strength to hold off the Atlantic.

This  for me, and I've been leaning this way for the last 24 hours,has the potential to be a legendary cold spell..

 

Edited February 6, 2021 by northwestsnow

[Weather-history]

7 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

 

Those temperatures don't look as cold on wxcharts. Midday on 14th and 15th February, it has many parts above freezing. 

 

[swebby]

15 minutes ago, snowice said:

West England, Wales could be buried as the front stalls.

That's an impressive level of percipitation when the mslp is 1030mb!

Trying to think of other situations where you see rain under that level of pressure? Snizzle maybe in a  inversion, can't think of many others.

[sheikhy]

4 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Those temperatures don't look as cold on wxcharts. Midday on 14th and 15th February, it has many parts above freezing. 

 

Thats the 00z mate?!!