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Model thread discussion - cold spell looming


Message added by Paul,

It's busy right now, so please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 
For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads
And for more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.
There's now also a cold spell chat and discusison thread.

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton
  • Location: Nuneaton
    3 minutes ago, Jason M said:

    If (and it is 'if') week 2 looks anything like current modelling you won't have to worry about anything falling from the sky other than perhaps a few tiny snow grains. There wouldn't even be any frost on surfaces either as the air would be too dry. 

    At least I could go ice skating on the canal 

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

    Since 1996 we have had very few cold February's, coldest being 2010 at 2.8C.

    A cold Feb is long overdue and going on recent runs we have a decent chance of the coldest Feb in over 25 years!

    I always think how February should have the potential to be the coldest of the three winter months but it simply hasn't materialised in the last few decades. I think March has been colder on numerous occasions.

    Models showing how a continuation of the cold could help that CET go lower than we have seen for at least 25 Years!

    Exciting times 😃

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

    EURO 12z goes for a foot in various parts of SE kent.

    Just another take but interesting none the less.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

    I’m at the point of where we now see traction for the block to hold then start to strengthen.  I’m not looking beyond yet as we’ll no doubt see different varying scenarios play out....

     

    BFTP

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    Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, Ice days, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl

    Wow!! I can't believe what the models are showing.. The north sea temp is going end below average and the strait of Dover will probably freeze if they come off 😱

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    Ensembles are about 50/50 tonight..that’s 50% better than yesterday 👍🏻

    AA07C479-1D58-4324-A445-FFF07B5C263F.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
    21 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    Ensembles are about 50/50 tonight..that’s 50% better than yesterday 👍🏻

    AA07C479-1D58-4324-A445-FFF07B5C263F.png

    Thats a marked shift from the  00z ens, mean barely above zero with both control and op both staying very cold throughout!

    00z for comparison.

    spacer.png

     

    Edited by chris55
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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    EC looking nice at 96 .. 

    Nice and cold I meant ....

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

    EC 96 for those wanting to see the chart in the thread.

    spacer.png

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire

    Award for most amplification goes to... 

    ECH1-120 (2).gif

    ECH0-120 (1).gif

    Edited by Griff
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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    Well I was daft enough to finally get a little excited this morning and the 12Z's seem to have removed any glimmer of hope of snow. Its really a big downgrade for those west the of IOW. ICON, Arpege really backed of the snow risk on Tuesday evening, GFS not really interested and ECM seems to be much further south!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    Just now, Rocheydub said:

    and the 120

    Screenshot 2021-02-06 at 18.22.02.png

    greedy but dosen't look like front will make it over here? GFS is amazing 12 or so hours of snow, then Atlantic backs away

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    Spare a thought for those in Slovakia etc..

    ec 00z 

    image.thumb.png.1f640dd9c60a59165e8a0bc782bc75de.png

    ec12z

    image.thumb.png.d290760cde13634ca8147ea2c86c27d9.png

    Winter to spring just like that!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    2 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    Well I was daft enough to finally get a little excited this morning and the 12Z's seem to have removed any glimmer of hope of snow. Its really a big downgrade for those west the of IOW. ICON, Arpege really backed of the snow risk on Tuesday evening, GFS not really interested and ECM seems to be much further south!!

    Still time for upgrades between now and Tuesday/Wednesday!

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