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Model thread discussion - cold spell looming


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It's busy right now, so please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 
For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads
And for more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.
There's now also a cold spell chat and discusison thread.

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Posted
  • Location: Cornwall
  • Location: Cornwall
    26 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

    GFS gets the warm front across to the east (stalling along the A1 roughly), before dying out.

    The GEM doesn’t get further than SW England and South Wales. In fact there are still scattered snow showers in east by next weekend.

    image.thumb.png.641194bc95ac995b491c670738cdbb44.png

    A bit of a shame that the South West does go into the warmer air 

    I have checked via the met office and it seems that Cornwall only has 2 days of very cold temperatures 

    However this is from where I live but it looks awesome especially Eastern England

    Get excited guys it's coming 

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
    24 minutes ago, Griff said:

    Gem is colder, and more amplified... 186👍

    gemnh-0-186 (1).png

    gemnh-1-186.png

    GEM looking very good this eve. The block is setting up further north with good WAA this is the best case for the longer term bringing back the very cold 850s rather than surface cold.

    GEM has been excellent recently, and was steadfast with this initial easterly right out at day 8. Then again with the Atlantic being pinned back, now its going for a higher lat block than the GFS. Will ECM follow suite as it has the last few runs.....

    Overall an historic period coming up by the looks of it....... 

    Edited by chris55
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    Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex

    So, as things stand tonight looking very cold into week 2. For lurkers here though its also looking very dry after the next few day! Could change of course but pressure would be very high and the airmass very dry so it would be a struggle to get snow showers even on eastern coasts. Its likely to be very cold, very grey but bone dry.

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    Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset
    13 minutes ago, fujita5 said:

    What interests me about the potential 2nd wave of cold, is that it covers more of continental Europe. That will make it increasingly difficult for Atlantic systems to make inroads, and when they do they only have frigid air to pull in ahead of their warm fronts. 

    Don’t we want Atlantic systems? I thought we would want channel low etc. Are they possibly in this set up? 

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    Posted
  • Location: North West
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but the prevailing wind!
  • Location: North West

    image.thumb.png.b7acd15e140cbb83151f74c99394a90e.png
    image.thumb.png.03f2d41aeeee0f1840626554da4bff24.png
    Spot the difference! 6z vs 12z!

    Its less of a bifurcated mean now, that is, many of the members are broadly sImilar to the mean, it’s not a fudge of super amplified vs flat members. This gives more confidence.

    Remarkable consistency from the GEFS.


    UKMO headed that way after significant snow for many. GEM consistent too. 

    image.thumb.png.1a0348fab8575465a8e832247ef85efc.png
     

    Synopitcally, these charts are an absolute delight with the WAA and CAA so obvious you don’t need any background in meteorology to know what’s going on.

    The path afterwards is a mystery at present but this Scandi high has got real momentum today. 

    If I know the ECM op, it’ll be one or the other tonight. Though the EPS will be more useful from a predictive standpoint to see if they match the GEFS. And given the op’s affinity for ‘copying’ the GEM, I have a feeling it might pick one from the cold cluster tonight too!
     

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    Just now, CentralSouthernSnow said:

    Don’t we want Atlantic systems? I thought we would want channel low etc. Are they possibly in this set up? 

    A scenario like this, a breakdown is bound to happen which, if from the Atlantic would provide the likes of Feb 1991! The setup looks largely dry which i'll take. Much better than the mild westerly muck we had this time last year.

    GFSOPEU12_84_1.thumb.png.24ee1b0021bf25563ebc9d7472e57cd9.png    AVN_1_2020021000_1.thumb.png.f237cafe6c54aeb1c7265e9a265eb9e2.png

    Sometimes I forget the position we were in last year, such a contrast.

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    Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton
  • Location: Nuneaton
    3 minutes ago, Uncertainy said:

    image.thumb.png.b7acd15e140cbb83151f74c99394a90e.png
    image.thumb.png.03f2d41aeeee0f1840626554da4bff24.png
    Spot the difference! 6z vs 12z!

    Its less of a bifurcated mean now, that is, many of the members are broadly sImilar to the mean, it’s not a fudge of super amplified vs flat members. This gives more confidence.

    Remarkable consistency from the GEFS.


    UKMO headed that way after significant snow for many. GEM consistent too. 

    image.thumb.png.1a0348fab8575465a8e832247ef85efc.png
     

    Synopitcally, these charts are an absolute delight with the WAA and CAA so obvious you don’t need any background in meteorology to know what’s going on.

    The path afterwards is a mystery at present but this Scandi high has got real momentum today. 

    If I know the ECM op, it’ll be one or the other tonight. Though the EPS will be more useful from a predictive standpoint to see if they match the GEFS. And given the op’s affinity for ‘copying’ the GEM, I have a feeling it might pick one from the cold cluster tonight too!
     

    1060 high! How would you go about removing that 

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    Posted
  • Location: Clacton-on-Sea, Essex
  • Location: Clacton-on-Sea, Essex
    1 minute ago, CentralSouthernSnow said:

    Don’t we want Atlantic systems? I thought we would want channel low etc. Are they possibly in this set up? 

    Yes, we want energy and moisture to get close to the UK and disrupt, then slide under the block. Until the exact orientation and strength of the high becomes clear it's impossible to say when and where will have frontal snow opportunities.... But it's fairly certain there will be opportunities from the east on the meantime, and plenty of surprises!

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    1 minute ago, Frigid said:

    GFSOPEU12_84_1.thumb.png.24ee1b0021bf25563ebc9d7472e57cd9.png    AVN_1_2020021000_1.thumb.png.f237cafe6c54aeb1c7265e9a265eb9e2.png

    Sometimes I forget the position we were in last year, such a contrast.

    Just incredible differences.  I don't think you could find two charts which could be more different!

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    Posted
  • Location: March, Cambs
  • Location: March, Cambs
    1 hour ago, craigore said:

    Here.

    Quietly watching..

    Pinching myself at the thought of this being extended into week 2...

    Be a very cold continental feed given that paternal.. 

    Think many of us lurking, but in shock that the charts keep giving. A good ten days minimum for us in the east is what it shows me.

    Edited by DiagonalRedLine
    Unnecessary comment & pics removed (removed extra additional images - DRL)
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    Posted
  • Location: Isle of Canvey, Thames Estuary
  • Location: Isle of Canvey, Thames Estuary

    Mentions how relatively mild at the moment but how quickly in the next twelve hours we’ll be plunged into the depths of Winter.

    Can we expect the wind to suddenly pick up to announce the arrival of this event?

    image.thumb.png.08d4854e39a5707c288c221f2828ed28.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
    45 minutes ago, Griff said:

    Gem is colder, and more amplified... 186👍

    gemnh-0-186 (1).png

    gemnh-1-186.png

    Maybe that CFS from the other day was onto something 🤔

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    Posted
  • Location: Isle of Anglesey Wales
  • Location: Isle of Anglesey Wales

    T+48 for Monday 12 noon , Convergence potential through middle England to North Wales, and more fun for north east Scotland. The Occlusion off Kent still delivering the white stuff too  

    image.thumb.png.d0cd6355b4699e07c39eb6a1113fd0b2.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
    1 minute ago, Frosty Winter said:

    Look at the cluster of runs down to -15C by the 16th February as well.😁

    E9F22389-EBED-4A3E-A71B-E08BABB6EBC0.png

    This is from the most progressive model out of the big 4 too. Hopefully there will be a large cold cluster in the EPS later.

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
    23 minutes ago, chris55 said:

    GEM looking very good this eve. The block is setting up further north with good WAA this is the best case for the longer term bringing back the very cold 850s rather than surface cold.

    GEM has been excellent recently, and was steadfast with this initial easterly right out at day 8. Then again with the Atlantic being pinned back, now its going for a higher lat block than the GFS. Will ECM follow suite as it has the last few runs.....

    Overall an historic period coming up by the looks of it....... 

    Agreed here GEM is been ontop of it all recently, if the UKMO and GEM are in support of each other take notice.

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirklees, West Yorks
  • Weather Preferences: Winter
  • Location: Kirklees, West Yorks

    Wow! This is shaping up to be one for the records. 12z gfs throws ice days out like sweets almost everywhere! Well below 0c maxes, consecutively for days on end, well far from the normal in the UK even in the coldest winters! 

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    Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex
    19 hours ago, Premier Neige said:

    I've had a surprise snowfall when sleet/rain was forecast and surprise rainfall when snow was forecast already this winter...

    If (and it is 'if') week 2 looks anything like current modelling you won't have to worry about anything falling from the sky other than perhaps a few tiny snow grains. There wouldn't even be any frost on surfaces either as the air would be too dry. 

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