Model thread discussion - cold spell looming

[phil nw.]

Following the 18z GfS last night the 0z runs all continue the trend of blocking the Atlantic later next week. 

The signs growing of a Scandinavian high devoloping which if the amplifying signal continues will return us to a cold easterly setup. 

I would still like to see another couple of runs from the Ukmo model for added confidence. From my pov in these mild v cold battles I always like to see backing from this model. 

All in all though very good outputs for coldies this morning. 

Edited February 6, 2021 by phil nw.

[Johnp]

30 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Extended eps trend towards the ec 46 of height rise griceland and sceuro low anoms .....if our scandi ridge does build then expect it to sink away or retrogress based on that mean .....either way the outlook remains blocked and cold 

I think we'll go with retrogression rather than sinking thank you

[bluearmy]

Just now, Johnp said:

I think we'll go with retrogression rather than sinking thank you

It may not matter ...... I wonder if the new ridge forms irrespective of a supporting retrogression ......

[Purga]

GEM building up to a serious Beast!

[DavidS]

As others have said, brilliant GEM this morning.  I love this  D10 850 hpa temp anomaly.

[tight isobar]

2 hours ago, Griff said:

I'm saying trend... 

I’d bet .. this is a solid evolution.. and has been gaining for a while (in snippets) but there... mild incursion.. b4 a shunt bk to cold ..and possibly colder than easterly phase 1.... keep watching!!!

[Johnp]

We're at the stage now where we should be looking at the fax charts to see what the pros are thinking. 

Tonight's fax chart seems to show the weather front further west than I expected. 

Tuesday shows a channel streamer / Devon dangler?

[DOdo]

I dont believe that low will progress betyond 144b this time next week we wil be still be in the freezer!!

[Chesil View]

What an Interesting situation we find ourselves in. Before the current cold/snowy for some spell relents we already have the models seeking out the next one. Fascinating times.

[feb1991blizzard]

Belting for the SW??

[That ECM]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Belting for the SW??

We are glued mate.

[Tim Bland]

Icon looking good.... South of the M4 .... midweek... 

[gman88667733]

1 minute ago, That ECM said:

We are glued mate.

This is getting exciting for us!

[sheikhy]

Just now, Tim Bland said:

Icon looking good.... South of the M4 .... midweek... 

The most important bit is t120!!will it look better than 00z or worse!!!need the gfs 06z to look better at 144 hours thats one thing for sure!!

[Man With Beard]

Looking through the ECM ensembles, nothing at all is resolved regarding who gets snow. The boundaries and intensity of tomorrow's SE event are far from defined. The potential for a channel low Tuesday/Wednesday cannot be ignored. Snow pushing into the midlands is still a possibility towards the end of the week. And the distribution of streamers varies. Added to that, I just recall most of the op runs under doing the streamers in 2018. Except to the west of scottish mountains, probably worth being prepared for anything at 48 hours notice.

[Tim Bland]

Icon starting to smell the coffee with how much shower activity there could be once the low slips south...

[Man With Beard]

9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Belting for the SW??

Strange to see this correcting north in the past 24 hours - usually they correct south. If this sticks, bearing in mind it's within T96, South Devon could see some disruption in particular (I recall almost getting stuck on Halden Hill in Feb 2009)

[EML Network]

This is like model watching heaven, first we have tomorrows snow event - then we have the possibility of a channel low effecting the south coast mid week and THEN we have the distinct possibility that what were seeing this week could just be the appetiser before the main event and a real Beast from the Beast courtesy of a Scandi High.

 

I recall seeing someone post mid week about how a southerly jet stream can often lead to the formation of a scandi high

I think winter 2020/2021 will be one that we refer back to in the years to come, much like we do with 1987and 2010

ICON 4am Wed morning.

Associated uppers

That would be a very close call, JUST about OK for Snow but any further north and that would probably be rain on the coastline. 

And the GEM then throws this at us, now THIS is what a Beast from the East looks like !!

Edited February 6, 2021 by EML Network

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

33 minutes ago, Johnp said:

We're at the stage now where we should be looking at the fax charts to see what the pros are thinking. 

Tonight's fax chart seems to show the weather front further west than I expected. 

Tuesday shows a channel streamer / Devon dangler?

How is the UK not all inside the 528 dam ?

[Summer Sun]

A lot of snow showers around early next week getting the exact detail is going to be difficult

 

[Drifter]

8 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

How is the UK not all inside the 528 dam ?

I tend to think the 528 dam line applies as the ‘snow line’ for northerly regimes. 
From an easterly it doesn’t appear to be so important for whatever reason. 

[Drifter]

A better view of icon’s southern snow.  

 

Edited February 6, 2021 by Drifter

[Methuselah]

Lowish heights off SE England on Monday, so could be interesting. Meanwhile, Scotties will get more of the same:

[johnholmes]

Saturday 6 February 2021 ECMWF first

a)     fri 12 th to tue 16th

b)     flat ridge over uk sharpening and edging eas t 16th;surface low sw Iceland 972 slowly filling and not moving much; s’ly flow uk with high 1037 s’ern Norway slowlydeclining and moing into Europe 1025+, flow turning sw’ly

c)     850 values starting -10 just skirting e Scotland and -5 N Ireland to sussex with marked trough shown Scandinavia in s’ern Europe; by tue 16th zero 850 close to south uk and -5 well clear of n; European trough now (Tue) from ne russiea sw into n Africa, coldest shown as -20 C and -10 into black sea/Greece

Second EC from today out to day 10=16 shows as above and other predictors for whole uk at or below -10 c by Monday and this out to wed with signs on fri of the coldest values starting to retreat ne. By sun 14 th areas west of sw England to scotiish borders and north of this are shown as 0 to +5 C with most of England 0 to -5. This is due to the major European trough lining up ne-sw, the far se of England is kept in this colder air out to day 14.

 

So based on these two ECMWF charts the cold begins to reced from most areas by Friday with the se hanging on to coldish 850 air.

On the anomaly charts and 3c and gfs show changes from 24 hours ago

Ec-gfs ec shows a marked ridging into and over the uk, gfs does but less so and both indicate the marked European trough, well east as mentioned above; over the states and west a broad westerly is shown.

Noaa in the far west keeps the trough-ridge pattern between Russia and the w coast of n America and a broad w’ly flowing beneath the marked eastern based trough and out into the atlantic and on to the uk and Europe, still with a broad atlantic flow, from s of w into the uk with only niminal indication of contour ridging over/e of uk. Its 8-14 chart, as I spoke on last evening, shows more ridging out of uk togreenland with a marked +ve area between Greenland and Canada. It also shows the main –ve heights to be sw of the uk. As I suggested it is ‘possible’ that these two items ‘might’ line up to give either an extension to the arriving cold or another one. Not worth betting on just yet though, certaiinly no higher than 35% I would think.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 

[sheikhy]

Fightback again on gfs 06z at 120 hours!!