Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model thread discussion - cold spell looming


Paul
Message added by Paul,

It's busy right now, so please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 
For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads
And for more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.
There's now also a cold spell chat and discusison thread.

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
5 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

For those interested in prolonging the cold spell, the splitting Atlantic trough and negative tilt are very welcome.

The GFS ensembles in posts above, are all keen on a warm up from Atlantic amplification. They are keener than me, that is sure.

Can you hazard a guess what would happen after 144 here? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wrexham,NE Wales - 89m
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Sunny Summers/Cold Wintry Winters
  • Location: Wrexham,NE Wales - 89m
28 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Can you hazard a guess what would happen after 144 here? 

Allow me to muse my thoughts on what might happen with my limited knowledge.

So as follows :

Secondary low to hopefully split off from the main one and slide under the ridge into Europe.

Firstly that would help to prop the Scandi Ridge up and stop any heights that build from sinking. 

Secondly it would stop heights over Southern Europe from building and introducing mild air from the Med. 

Then the best case scenario is the main low eventually goes under as the Scandi Ridge develops into a full blown high.

But if it doesn't then maybe we'd look for WAA to strengthen the potential Scandi High from an Atlantic Ridge or from the low colliding with the high pressure as seen on the GEM run. 

Bare in mind this is all guess work and I could be completely wrong but if I am it will be a good learning experience. 

 

 

 

 

Edited by Summerstorm
  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl
  • Weather Preferences: The fabled channel low
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl

Spring in the South East by next Sunday on this run

Screenshot_20210206-044543_Meteociel.jpg

Edited by festivalking
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
7 minutes ago, Summerstorm said:

Allow me to muse my thoughts on what might happen with my limited knowledge.

So as follows :

Secondary low to hopefully split off from the main one and slide under the ridge into Europe.

Firstly that would help to prop the Scandi Ridge up and stop any heights that build from sinking. 

Secondly it would stop heights over Southern Europe from building and introducing mild air from the Med. 

Then the best case scenario is the main low eventually goes under as the Scandi Ridge develops into a full blown high.

But if it doesn't then maybe we'd look for WAA to strengthen the potential Scandi High from an Atlantic Ridge or from the low colliding with the high pressure as seen on the GEM run. 

Bare in mind this is all guess work and I could be completely wrong but if I am it will be a good learning experience. 

 

 

 

 

Thank you, I really enjoy it when members try to predict what will happen further down the line using their knowledge and experience.

This place is going to explode if the ECM follows the gem, which it is known to do at times

Edited by Battleground Snow
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wrexham,NE Wales - 89m
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Sunny Summers/Cold Wintry Winters
  • Location: Wrexham,NE Wales - 89m
4 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Well..... The GEM well and truly goes with this Scandinavian high idea.

anim_ztq2.gif
 

The -12c isotherm pushing through EA and the South east at day 10 with even colder air set to push in. I honestly didn’t expect an operational to pick this up so quickly.

One little detail I noticed which is important is that lower pressure over Western Russia and the LP system heading in from the Atlantic stop the high from sinking into Central Europe. 

Edited by Summerstorm
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex
41 minutes ago, Eugene said:

Very deceiving post, as many have said it would be cold at the surface still, hardly a big signal for a warm up, also UKMO 00Z shows any confidence of a breakdown to the cold weather from next friday is very low.

Not to mention that it is for Preston which is always going to be nearer the milder air. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Islington, C. London.
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters and cool summers.
  • Location: Islington, C. London.

GEM an absolutely fantastical run & would certainly be on our way to a potential sub zero month on the C.E.T. 

 

Best not get too excited but definitely a nice start to the day & at least it’s at day 9/10 rather day 16.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex
3 minutes ago, LetItSnow! said:

GEM an absolutely fantastical run & would certainly be on our way to a potential sub zero month on the C.E.T. 

 

Best not get too excited but definitely a nice start to the day & at least it’s at day 9/10 rather day 16.

Absolutely. It’s also a logically possible outcome rather than some random easterly that just pops up on an ecm day 10 chart. Doesn’t mean it will happen but from where we are now it feels like a sensible possible route forward.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
Just now, Scott Ingham said:

This is bang on the solution i am hoping and optimistically expecting

There are a few ensembles thinking about it too, with MJO and AAM, it seems a logical option. Met office long range update will be interesting later to see whether or not MOGREPS is showing this as an option.

gensnh-21-1-192.png

gensnh-30-1-192.png

gensnh-24-1-192.png

gensnh-14-1-192.png

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wrexham,NE Wales - 89m
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Sunny Summers/Cold Wintry Winters
  • Location: Wrexham,NE Wales - 89m

Reasonable support in the GEFS for the general pattern shown on the GEM up to Day 8/9 with the WAA through the UK. 

What we need to focus on is enough forcing from the low to keep the ridge from sinking into Europe. 

The best ensemble member is 30 and has a full blown Scandi High at +192

gens-30-1-192.thumb.png.4a2f62b4a61b0792025bb64e6a682e1c.png

I would presume it delays dropping the PV into Canada therefore allowing extra time for a stronger ridge to set up. Therefore when the LP system gets ejected it gets stopped mid Atlantic and builds a ridge from the AH into the UK to support the Scandi High. 

I believe this is what @nick sussex was taking about if we can delay the energy coming from the PV.

It gives us these extra opportunities for cleaner evolution instead of messing around with the more complex evolution from the GEM. 

However maybe the more realistic option is plan B with the WAA on the eastern flank of the LP system. 

I'm just musing currently so feel free to correct me I'm still learning too weather forecasts are a fickle beast 

 

Edited by Summerstorm
  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

Control is trying. fair to say nhp is different tho. Looking through the gefs I would say there are 5 out of the 30 giving support. Not favourite yet.

2A9EB5BE-0C66-4384-9320-E03A5B047F2A.png

44F7CF8C-331F-4E4B-9148-9E5F67ED9EA8.png

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

The East coast never really has a mild spell with the GEM, surface cold may even prevent any snow melt from this weeks freeze - before this bad boy is inbound!!

8613FC4D-2A5C-4341-A1EB-6E4A8132BE63.png
 

Infact the warmest day on the GEM run is next Sunday, and the 2m temps are still showing ice day temps !! 

C76FFF2D-A182-4EB2-B58F-E81AC04609D9.png

Edited by Ali1977
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

It’s a day 10 chart but the possibility of a Scandi high developing seems to be gaining some momentum… Imagine if the main course was still to come Some exceptionality cold air being modelled over Europe.

GEM 00z 

DEAF8AD3-D083-4F60-BC5F-F2A8B22C51C1.thumb.png.67a61c689a6c4710315928a09880c79d.png

A4AD37FB-1DC6-4601-BF40-EFC7E397D6C8.thumb.png.5c4202f45596b301a326b9521ea4a3c9.png

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Nottingham
  • Location: Nottingham
10 minutes ago, DisruptiveGust said:

It’s a day 10 chart but the possibility of a Scandi high developing seems to be gaining some momentum… Imagine if the main course was still to come Some exceptionality cold air being modelled over Europe.

GEM 00z 

DEAF8AD3-D083-4F60-BC5F-F2A8B22C51C1.thumb.png.67a61c689a6c4710315928a09880c79d.png

A4AD37FB-1DC6-4601-BF40-EFC7E397D6C8.thumb.png.5c4202f45596b301a326b9521ea4a3c9.png

If this comes off. Wow. The potential!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

T120 ECM where those heights going? fi at T120?

D55B7EBE-9A29-457C-9B72-1EE53AD7573C.png

6A4806F0-B397-4EFE-AA43-E72C4FD30B8D.gif

0C598E2A-4429-4482-9F93-4AA6C28FDF03.png

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...