Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Model thread discussion - cold spell looming


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Kilburn, NW London
  • Location: Kilburn, NW London
    5 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

    I think I saw a comment earlier, about commenting on the models and sticking to what they show in this thread. But the fun for me is viewing all the outputs and then working out where the information they provide can be used in a constructive way to predict a slightly different outcome that is equally feasible with the help they provide. Hence when you see a ( double) amplification scenario that the models pick up on, it is logical to adjust this to suggest a different scenario that is reasonable but not showing yet.

    Still a long way to go, but round two a strong likelihood imo

    Im pressing like as you are an expert, and I really hope you are right !!!

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    • Replies 2.3k
    • Created
    • Last Reply

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Popular Posts

    Whilst some are looking W at the low pressure for a possible snowy breakdown. Im looking in the other direction. Could it be that no fronts will get anywhere near at the end of the week (except S

    Wow, it only took GFS one suite to catch up! Wasn't expecting that. This has to be the best period of model watching in the 15 years I've been doing it.

    This is the moment for me when the action really begins. The cold pattern was secured days ago, but only now are we close enough to start forecasting the snow with any confidence. 5 or 6 days with pot

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
    4 minutes ago, DCee said:

    Good call chionomaniac. Hopefully a trend, good ol GFS...

    Thanks.  But it has not happened yet, but it is still important to look at the clues the models give you, despite them showing another scenario.  It is a bit like seeing them arriving at a y junction, and choosing the south option, when the north option is equally good.

    Spotting the y junction is not always obvious.

    Edited by chionomaniac
    • Like 5
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    The control and the mean are more impressive than the 12z...

    gensnh-0-1-276.thumb.png.c965eb1afad30b46c884052408a73b39.pnggensnh-0-1-288.thumb.png.9089f74616688e058c557aec3f574cfd.png

    gensnh-31-1-276.thumb.png.efbbeec382e4dacd5c6340e094282038.pnggensnh-31-1-288.thumb.png.98fac1f14967e1892aaa03a04e6660b1.png

    • Like 8
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
    12 minutes ago, Nath said:

    Im pressing like as you are an expert, and I really hope you are right !!!

    Lol, thanks.  Not so much as an expert, but more an experimental thinker mixing logic with experience.

    • Like 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
    1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

    GFS pub run T192:

    75E4308E-FAE9-4E3F-A326-827B8BB635AF.thumb.png.497a046bc488cfa92bea73fa3b398e82.png

    I’m posting this not because i think it will happen, actually I don't think it will happen.  I think something like the blocking into scandi will happen earlier, and scupper the mild spell completely.  I think the models on Sunday maybe, will disrupt that T144 bowling ball low and it will slide.  We will see...

    The other thing to be wary of on is the first easterly feed to be cut shorter by heights raising quicker in the gin corridor stopping low pressure going south pulling in an easterly feed. Potential to lose thursday battkeground abd half of wednesday for longer term gain from a sturdy scandi high. Im keeping an eye on slp and precipitation on the ensembles wednesday 

    Look at the drop in precipitation late wednesday/thursdsy

    Do we see snow showers monday tuesdsy and a building scandi high late wednesday?

    Mixed thoughts but surely better long term?

    Anyone else analysed n thought the same?

     

    20210206_000139.jpg

    Edited by Scott Ingham
    • Like 6
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Addington
  • Weather Preferences: Love a bit of snow
  • Location: Addington
    3 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

    Lol, thanks.  Not so much as an expert, but more an experimental thinker mixing logic with experience.

    More thinking outside the box I would say mate

    great calls lately

    Great forecasting is 30 percent model guessing and 70 percent skill to look at the projected model directions in being wrong or correct, and where they will be in the future run

    its that 70 percent that’s the hard part

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Split between Wells and Bridgwater
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny or cold and snowy. Nothing inbetween.
  • Location: Split between Wells and Bridgwater
    11 minutes ago, chris55 said:

    Certainly possible cold remains at the surface but a way to go before we know what's going to happen......

    18z bringing in snow from the Atlantic incursion Thursday, with max temps Saturday and Sunday well below zero for most! So if that snow did materialise it'd hang around for sure.

    Based on 18z run only......

    Thursdays snow 

    spacer.png

    2 meter temps Sat and Sun!!!

    spacer.png

    spacer.png

    What’s the red hatching mean over SW UK and northern France on the precip chart?

    Edited by khodds
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
    Just now, khodds said:

    What’s the red hatching mean over SW UK and northern France? 

    Freezing rain I would imagine, with the very cold surface and milder air aloft.

    • Like 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    5 minutes ago, chris55 said:

    Looking at the 18z 2M temps on the ensemble graph you can see a split of two clusters from the 12th, with the Op and Control both in the cold set that continue the sub zero maxes right out till the 15th!!! Thats getting on for 8 days at or below freezing.

    spacer.png

    Potential for the CET to be sub zero by mid month if that happens.

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: East London
  • Location: East London
    28 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

    A nice GFS ensemble member that shows how the cold not only stays in place but reloads into week 2.

    Day 6/8/10

    image.thumb.png.b8c4ea3a62de11cfee9019bb7c710751.png   image.thumb.png.86fe39fc1b1cd9b2e89307f11f69a34e.png   
     

    image.thumb.png.9fa2e85bd2d7fdc04dc4cd316f9f85f9.png

     

    Just an illustration of how things rapidly change through Europe as earlier trough disruption along a for greater sheering of the amplified ridge through Western Europe that sets up another easterly later on. The amplification driven by that deepening Atlantic trough is quite a sight to behold. If the easterly doesn’t happen, then it wouldn’t surprise me If we saw a very intense anticyclone develop (over 1050mb) close to the U.K. 

    After the 12zs yesterday and the 0zs today, I was expecting that one of the ops might roll out a solution like this at some point today, with the wedge over Scandinavia growing, and then beginning to retrogress. I don't know if it will happen like that, but the trend for WAA rising either over the UK or just to our west seemed to be gaining a little momentum.

     

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
    38 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

    I think I saw a comment earlier, about commenting on the models and sticking to what they show in this thread. But the fun for me is viewing all the outputs and then working out where the information they provide can be used in a constructive way to predict a slightly different outcome that is equally feasible with the help they provide. Hence when you see a ( double) amplification scenario that the models pick up on, it is logical to adjust this to suggest a different scenario that is reasonable but not showing yet.

    Still a long way to go, but round two a strong likelihood imo

    I love this. Big believer in reading models in this way Ed

    • Like 7
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland 6m Below sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, snow, ice. Very hot or very cold.
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland 6m Below sea level
    43 minutes ago, chris55 said:

    Looking at the 18z 2M temps on the ensemble graph you can see a split of two clusters from the 12th, with the Op and Control both in the cold set that continue the sub zero maxes right out till the 15th!!! Thats getting on for 10 days at or below freezing.

    spacer.png

    Many of those sub zero 2m temps are under milder T850's.

    So, looking at the T850's chart, or ensemble, one might think the cold is driven out, but that is not necessarily the case.
    That is exactly what a cold block is. The milder air attempts to drive away the cold, but warmer air is less dense and slides over the dense cold air mass, instead of pushing it away.

    • Like 2
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Preston, 19m ASL when tide out :(
  • Location: Preston, 19m ASL when tide out :(

    Big signal for a warm up by next Friday for majority of uk, a nice dry, mild high pressure after a winter locked up..sounds pretty nice! 👍

    ens_image.png

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: near Edenbridge - 178ft
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters and cool, wet springs and summers.
  • Location: near Edenbridge - 178ft
    1 minute ago, Beano said:

    Big signal for a warm up by next Friday for majority of uk, a nice dry, mild high pressure after a winter locked up..sounds pretty nice! 👍

    ens_image.png

    As mentioned though, the mild uppers might not be felt with the remnants of the cold air & snowfall on the ground. Still could be very cold.  

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    3 minutes ago, Beano said:

    Big signal for a warm up by next Friday for majority of uk, a nice dry, mild high pressure after a winter locked up..sounds pretty nice! 👍

    ens_image.png

    cheers walter  !

     

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Ward Green barnsley
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing fog heatwave thunderstorm
  • Location: Ward Green barnsley
    22 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

    Icon 00z

    Scandinavia pressure increases similar to the GFS 18z (attached for comparison)

    iconnh-0-180 (21).png

    gfsnh-0-174 (12).png

    Defo signs their mate 

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: West Midlands
  • Location: West Midlands
    2 hours ago, Beano said:

    Big signal for a warm up by next Friday for majority of uk, a nice dry, mild high pressure after a winter locked up..sounds pretty nice! 👍

    ens_image.png

    Very deceiving post, as many have said it would be cold at the surface still, hardly a big signal for a warm up, also UKMO 00Z shows any confidence of a breakdown to the cold weather from next friday is very low.

    • Like 6
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Ward Green barnsley
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing fog heatwave thunderstorm
  • Location: Ward Green barnsley
    2 minutes ago, Eugene said:

    Very deceiving post, as many have said it would be cold at the surface still, hardly a big signal for a warm up, also UKMO 00Z shows any confidence of a breakdown to the cold weather from next friday is very low.

    Yes just looked at Ukmo. Very true fantasy island is about Tuesday for me in this set up. Anything after then is up for grabs. Excellent time for model watching. Gfs not has good as Ukmo but it can't be trusted. More runs needed. 

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Message added by Paul,

    It's busy right now, so please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 
    For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads
    And for more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.
    There's now also a cold spell chat and discusison thread.

    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
    ×
    ×
    • Create New...