Model thread discussion - cold spell looming

[Don]

11 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Start praying it’s a new trend and not A cold outlier

Aren't we all! 

[nick sussex]

To have a chance of that deep cold you need a stronger shortwave ejected at T156 hrs , you need that to head ese and help to develop lower pressure over central Southern Europe . A westwards correction is  also needed and the Scandi high needs to be further north .

So we’ve ordered that for tomorrow !

[Tim Bland]

8 minutes ago, CentralSouthernSnow said:

They really aren’t. They downgraded there outlook today 

Is say they are leaning towards a cold end to feb.. No sign of an outlier out to Friday

[Sweatyman]

10 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Next sun 12z Vs 18z 

Let The Chase begin again..

[goosey007]

20 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Snow fizzling out, most people burried and still under cold air...GET IN

BANK ! hope this is new trend 

[Notty]

7 minutes ago, CentralSouthernSnow said:

They really aren’t. They downgraded there outlook today 

Yes, you are correct. A slight downgrade but still bullish:

“Increased confidence at the end of February and the start of March for cold and mostly dry conditions. However, there remains a greater than normal threat of disruptive winter hazards for all areas most of February, with snowfall possible for all areas, but most likely in the east.”

From 

Weather and climate change

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

---

Met Office weather forecasts for the UK. World leading weather services for the public.

 

[phil nw.]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

To have a chance of that deep cold you need a stronger shortwave ejected at T156 hrs , you need that to head ese and help to develop lower pressure over central Southern Europe . A westwards correction is  also needed and the Scandi high needs to be further north .

So we’ve ordered that for tomorrow !

A se flow off the cold continent would be OK Nick. That whilst we wait for the high to gain traction further north.

[Tim Bland]

Potential

[nick sussex]

I’m debating whether to call an emergency committee meeting of Cold Extension Members tomorrow !

You can see by tonight’s GFS how much of a westwards correction that made . Can we see this trend continue ?

Edited February 5, 2021 by nick sussex

[sheikhy]

2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Is say they are leaning towards a cold end to feb.. No sign of an outlier out to Friday

Wow doesnt look an outlier!!bang in the middle and still some colder runs than the op!!plenty of colder runs than the op

[Purga]

Wow ! Amazing pub run with the cold never really being displaced at all except for a while in the far West, SW & South maybe. Signs of a renewed Scandi block & a very cold CAA westward blast to come.

Snow cover still there for many parts!

[TSNWK]

3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Is say they are leaning towards a cold end to feb.. No sign of an outlier out to Friday

Those ensembles are bonkers... the op is not even an outlier.. thr whole set has flipped cold extension 

[Tim Bland]

Just now, TSNWK said:

Those ensembles are bonkers... the op is not even an outlier.. thr whole set has flipped cold extension 

These are only as far as the end of the week so far... 

[TallPaul]

56 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Something for the south west?  Are there any here or did they all give up ? Where is @BARRY?

Never given up Tim... us folk continually dream....

[Cloud 10]

Expect some more eye candy from the GEFS 18z as it tries to work out the HP's destination.

[Don]

2 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Those ensembles are bonkers... the op is not even an outlier.. thr whole set has flipped cold extension 

If anything, it goes to show how volatile the output is at the moment, but an excellent period of model watching for sure!

Edited February 5, 2021 by Don

[icykev]

22 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Now if that low heading up towards Greenland now gets absorbed by the PV, there will then be high lat block and then if anyone has noticed, the Jan 87 uppers redux and then some on top is just about to head West - how about the -20c barrier being smashed anyone?

GEM control maybe showing what could be the way forward? losing the milder ensembles especially on the 1st try, look at the cluster of 4 maybe something to compare on the gefs.

 

Edited February 5, 2021 by icykev

[phil nw.]

Now if the 0z runs can pick up the baton then we could be seeing the mild squeezed out. 

This is better than the movies for us weather nuts. 

[Don]

Just now, phil nw. said:

Now if the 0z runs can pick up the baton then we could be seeing the mild squeezed out. 

This is better than the movies for us weather nuts. 

100% better than the movies lol!  Not too much to ask from the 00Z runs, they can do it.....

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

3 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Those ensembles are bonkers... the op is not even an outlier.. thr whole set has flipped cold extension 

Indeed...and there’s more resolving to be done.  I fully anticipate solidified output of cold extension or renewed surge after attempted breakdown to be particularly showing after Sunday.

18z showing perfectly what this Atlantic will face....and it won’t want to back off...very very interesting model watching ahead with nowcasting and the way ahead.

BFTP

[feb1991blizzard]

deleted

Edited February 5, 2021 by feb1991blizzard

[WINTRY WALES]

Does anyone think there is potential now for an attempted breakdown bringing in some snow that hangs around and we get a reinforcing of cold from the east?

[Nick F]

Well, well, as many had expected, the cold may not be so easy to remove later next week, at least at the surface. 

Look at the 12z EPS mean mslp indicates Scandi high pressure for Sunday week

12z EPS 500mb mean days 7-12 shows the upper level ridge to support a Scandi High, while blocking progression east of the Atlantic trough. 

Could be a close call though - UK seeing a tug-o-war play out over it between deep cold to the east and mild air trying to push in from the west, 

Edited February 5, 2021 by Nick F

[ancientsolar]

this GFS has seen such a colossal shift in this 18z run. It allows the wind to be influenced from the East rather than the West.. this keeps us in a feed of colder air than previously. 
The cold air over Europe seems to be stronger/cooler and closer as is the scandi high which is helping us in battle. 

when the less freezing air reaches us towards next weekend end , it doesn't seem to be enough to start a thaw of the snow in the East.. and right now I can't see when a thaw would happen. 

Even across Central England into Wales, the warmer air struggles arrive at ground level.

so 6-7 days out we see a difference over models in 6 hours,. and the latter part of my message goes out 7-10 days.

 which means there is so much time for such a volatile situation to change. For the better and for the worse.. remember our concerning low hasn't even developed yet.
 
 

[Scott Ingham]

Been banging this amp drum like a broken record but right on cue 13th thats another run to up the anti from goings on with aam.

It all did feel a little too quick however