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Model thread discussion - cold spell looming


Message added by Paul,

It's busy right now, so please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 
For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads
And for more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.
There's now also a cold spell chat and discusison thread.

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene

    1209417312_Screenshot_20210205-145609_SamsungInternet.thumb.jpg.e3c50fbd0d34dc83ae47080cd2542c09.jpg

    @Don here was my reply before a new thread was created

    Edit in fact it doesnt have my reply hahaha! 

    I still think we will see some high latitude blocking from aam forcing but will it keep us all cold half of us cold or will there be an interval followed by cold again.

    The EPS trends keep many northern area cold throughout with a brief interlude for the south

    Edited by Scott Ingham
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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    2 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

    1209417312_Screenshot_20210205-145609_SamsungInternet.thumb.jpg.e3c50fbd0d34dc83ae47080cd2542c09.jpg

    @Don here was my reply before a new thread was created

    @Scott Ingham Sorry, I can't see the reply to my message?

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    Posted
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Snow, Snow and Cold
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)

    ICON 12Z keeps the precipitation further south and east compared to the 06Z run:

    Screenshot 2021-02-05 at 15.23.59.png

    Screenshot 2021-02-05 at 15.24.11.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: An Alpine climate - snowy winters and sunny summers
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk

    @Don @Scott Ingham You can just pop back over to the old thread to read it. Here's the post.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
    2 minutes ago, AppleUK 123 said:

    ICON 12Z keeps the precipitation further south and east compared to the 06Z run:

    Screenshot 2021-02-05 at 15.23.59.png

    Screenshot 2021-02-05 at 15.24.11.png

    Yes, as the low track keeps trending ever more southeastwards from run to run.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland
  • Location: Ireland

    On the 12Z ICON, less cold air is pushing in from the southwest about 24 hours earlier than on the 0Z run. Hoping for better from the UKMO and GFS.

    spacer.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
    Just now, radiohead said:

    On the 12Z ICON, less cold air is pushing in from the southwest about 24 hours earlier than on the 0Z run. Hoping for better from the UKMO and GFS.

    spacer.png

    It's a poor run all round, as Sunday is rapidly becoming a non-event for the vast majority of the country. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
    4 minutes ago, radiohead said:

    On the 12Z ICON, less cold air is pushing in from the southwest about 24 hours earlier than on the 0Z run. Hoping for better from the UKMO and GFS.

    spacer.png

    It's very cold at the surface though, and this could be short lived if the heights circled gain traction. AAM and MJO influence I believe

    iconnh-0-180 (19)~2.png

    Edited by Battleground Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
    2 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

    It's a poor run all round, as Sunday is rapidly becoming a non-event for the vast majority of the country. 

    A lot will be looking for something sat night into sunday I think. After that not alot showing at this stage. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
    3 minutes ago, MKN said:

    A lot will be looking for something sat night into sunday I think. After that not alot showing at this stage. 

    Yes, plenty of interest there and then for the Midlands. Undoubtedly there will be showers of the North Sea too, but it's a long way from the runs of just a couple of days ago.

    Edited by Yarmy
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    Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury

    From Carinthian 

     

    Thought it's worth being in this one 

     

    Afternoon, sorry a bit late with an update. The team have provided the results for the outer parameters from the snow forecasting computer. The fine mesh model is unable to provide depth as far out as the British Isles but flags up snow prospects and locations for SE Britain.  Snow prospects good across the Southern Half of Northern England , especially Saturday evening into early Sunday. The band of snow then focused further Southeast during Sunday. Monday appears to show convective snow shower activity quite widely across much of Eastern Britain with some extending further west. Tuesday could be the surprise day as their charts indicate some sort of disturbance in the flow from the Low countries with snow prospects being flagged up more widely for a time ( Humber to IOW ). All in all good prospects for some snow for many but surprises can occur almost anywhere. Longer term, a swift removal of the Ac  to a more maritime air type likely to be less progressive across the north. However, thats still some days off . Just enjoy the snow and real cold whilst its here, at least for you lot in blighty.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland 6m Below sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, snow, ice. Very hot or very cold.
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland 6m Below sea level
    1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

    It's very cold at the surface though, and this could be short lived if the heights circled gain traction. AAM and MJO influence I believe

    iconnh-0-180 (19)~2.png

    Exactly this.

    Milder T850 do not necessarily mean that the cold at the surface moves as easily.
    Models are making more and more of those heights you circled and the Atlantic attack becomes less and less effective.

    It's AAM, MJO, but also simply a cold, sinking air mass that will turn into a high.

    ICON is another confirmation of a possibly lengthy cold spell.

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    Posted
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Snow, Snow and Cold
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)

    ARPEGE 12Z keeps most precipitation off the coast of SE England. Streamers follow on behind (locations not worth worrying about at this stage)

    Compared to 12Z ICON there is a noticeably less precipitation around

    Screenshot 2021-02-05 at 15.44.24.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    Just now, AppleUK 123 said:

    ARPEGE 12Z keeps most precipitation off the coast of SE England. Streamers follow on behind (locations not worth worrying about at this stage)

    Compared to 12Z ICON there is a noticeably less precipitation around

    Screenshot 2021-02-05 at 15.44.24.png

    According to that the warning across south east of england would disappear very soon lol!!i think thats too far south and east!

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    Look at the difference between icon and GFS for Sunday morning, even high res models like Aperge & UKV are miles apart  🤷🏻‍♂️

    3ACBEB67-C380-4720-8DF2-FA33783C0514.png

    DD7119CF-2710-44ED-B8C5-9C50125C57DD.png

    48D99BD7-E182-483B-A29A-F4F7B736D5B5.jpeg

    CB4C936E-B91E-4B80-A392-E5F38FAB94B2.png

    Edited by Tim Bland
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    Posted
  • Location: Lower Penn 163m
  • Location: Lower Penn 163m
    3 minutes ago, AppleUK 123 said:

    ARPEGE 12Z keeps most precipitation off the coast of SE England. Streamers follow on behind (locations not worth worrying about at this stage)

    Compared to 12Z ICON there is a noticeably less precipitation around

    Screenshot 2021-02-05 at 15.44.24.png

    Agreed location of streamers not worth worrying about but falling as rain where they do may be.😮

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    Look at the difference between icon and GFS for Sunday morning, even high res models like Aperge & UKV are miles apart  🤷🏻‍♂️

    3ACBEB67-C380-4720-8DF2-FA33783C0514.png

    DD7119CF-2710-44ED-B8C5-9C50125C57DD.png

    48D99BD7-E182-483B-A29A-F4F7B736D5B5.jpeg

    CB4C936E-B91E-4B80-A392-E5F38FAB94B2.png

    Gfs still gets it into the midlands!!!!its not budging lol!!!

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    Posted
  • Location: London City ,Cobham Surrey or Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: clear skies , hard frost , snow !
  • Location: London City ,Cobham Surrey or Manchester
    2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

    Show activity already ramping up by Sunday, look how much of the country this could effect.

    99F71755-02F1-45AE-AB3D-CCA43ABAA13B.gif

    Except gfs precipitation model is not regarded at all ... 

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