Model thread discussion - cold spell looming

[Malarky]

Just now, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

The signs are creeping in, even if one looks at the T144 of the UKMO, when I looked at it I thought that undercutting could follow and it wouldn’t surprise me if it starts showing that HP further west.

GFS starting to come back into showing blocking and another easterly.  Should be interesting Model watching again over next couple of days.

 

BFTP

Just when you thought it was safe to stop hammering F5.

[sheikhy]

If its of any consolation euro4 agrees with gfs at 54 hours

[swebby]

2 hours ago, Alderc said:

Wow look at that little beauty in there, P16 would be record breaking 21/22C. Yes please lets start spring quickly.

If you are looking at around the 22nd and  the >10 uppers, then i think it is P14 and 18 - Unfortunately they might both big inversions based on 2m temps so potentially rather grey, cold and rubbish.

[Summerstorm]

12 minutes ago, swebby said:

If you are looking at around the 22nd and  the >10 uppers, then i think it is P14 and 18 - Unfortunately they might both big inversions based on 2m temps so potentially rather grey, cold and rubbish.

This is the run he's talking about from the midnight run

 

Very mild however I would prefer to wait till Mid-March to make the most of the warming sun.

As a contrast to keep everyone happy here is some something of a colder premise with the ingredients for a greenland high I essentially picked a decent one out the bag.

Highly doubt this is what it will look like come the 21st

 

But we shall see later whether these are the types of scenarios we should be looking for later on because the attempt at a Scandi High failed or whether maybe this would achievable by some form of retrogression from a Scandi Block we shall have to see with the MJO into phase 7 this could be possible and these are the permutations to look for should early attempts for scandi blocking fail. Look for a UK high to retrogress north. 

Edited February 10, 2021 by Summerstorm

[swebby]

4 minutes ago, Summerstorm said:

This is the run he's talking about from the midnight run

 

Very mild however I would prefer to wait till Mid-March to make the most of the warming sun.

As a contrast to keep everyone happy here is some something of a colder premise with the ingredients for a greenland high I essentially picked a decent one out the bag.

Highly doubt this is what it will look like come the 21st

Ah yes - my bad, i've been looking at the 06z ensembles!  Those two charts you have posted with a long fetch southerly would certainly be more spring like.

[Tim Bland]

1 hour ago, Day_9 said:

Who said it’s all over.  This would be so cold and snowy

Sorry to put a dampener on things but that’s cold but dry for most, similar to today & tomorrow . It could deliver some flurries to the far south east and of course it’s pure fantasy so won’t be like that and could be a more potent easterly. Personally I’d like a proper under cut or slider and then into March / April a potent northerly can deliver. 

[phil nw.]

So gfs 06z wants to be a coldie.The better orientation of the blocking high keeps much of the cold well into next week.

We can see how surface temperatures can remain quite low even at day 6 at midday even with uppers above 0c because of the continental flow from a cold Europe.

Btw notice the extreme cold plunge further east.

Granted by T144 it is the only model to show the high not tilting somewhat but if we do go warmer the signs are the block is trying to reassert itself later on with both gfs and ecm

With the uncertainty over the progress of the Atlantic into the west over the weekend it seems there will be more dramas to come.

Edited February 10, 2021 by phil nw.

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

My interest was peaked when I viewed the SEM (Sheiky Exclamation Mark) model earlier!

Let's hope the ECM comes back into line this evening and we get a snowy non-breakdown followed by a further Easterly by next weekend!  ❄

[Tim Bland]

Looking at the ensembles Our next easterly chance is probably just out of ECM view (day  11) but let’s hope we hear that phrase “Day 10 has potential “ soon ...

[phil nw.]

A heads up folks.I will shortly be opening a new thread ready for the 12z runs.

[phil nw.]

Ok this is now locked.New thread is here.