Model thread discussion - cold spell looming

[nick sussex]

Nothing like a bit of last minute drama !

Very bizarre goings on with the GFS still churning out better runs and the ECM op getting worse with each run.

We’ll know by this evening whether the GFS is onto something or whether it’s leading everyone up the garden path ! 

[Gowon]

8 minutes ago, chris55 said:

️

Para really going for it with a quick return to proper cold! 
 

 

The normal GFS is better though 

[GeordieX9v]

"That para" Hope we're not going down that path just to see some blowtorch SW winds later on

[Griff]

13 hours ago, Don said:

For worse, not expecting any miracles now!

I was thinking the same but the 06z  

[Don]

1 minute ago, Griff said:

I was thinking the same but the 06z  

Just need the UKMO and ECMWF to make a move towards the GFS this afternoon and things MAY start to look a little interesting again?  I hate this hobby at times!

[Frigid]

3 minutes ago, GeordieX9v said:

"That para" Hope we're not going down that path just to see some blowtorch SW winds later on

We've already had a "That GFS" moment when the models were showing extended cold and easterlies for a few days, for it to only vanish. Latest GFS suite looks good tho

[Audaxian]

Have a feeling FI is not that far out at the moment. Struggling to see them agree on what happens IMBY this afternoon, let alone tomorrow morning and beyond.

[Eugene]

Think people calling widespread maxs of 14C are way off the mark for next week. 

[carinthian]

2 hours ago, carinthian said:

This chart from Arpege shows the slowest transition to remove the embedded cold away from the UK. Sunday into Monday will feel cold in that strengthened surface SE wind , especially in Central and Eastern Britain with temps still close to freezing. Looks like little in the way of precipitation at this stage. As you @nick sussex say shorter term still subect to changes. One things for sure some real cold temps over the coming nights/ days over much of Northern Europe. Lets see how easily it dissipates  ?

C

The chart below from GFS is an upgrade and carries on from what Arpege was heading for. On the latest run precipitation halts on Tuesday and slides back SW  as the trough weakens and disrupts against the cold block/ high pressure. Looking into the Atlantic the jet also showing signs of buckling and sending some energy north and later southeast. A sure sign the cold block not going to be easily defeated .

Lets hope the next set of runs continue to show this process !

 C

[lassie23]

Can you trust the GFS, and is it good at sniffing out new trends before the others?

[Purga]

Control run is joining the party

[Alexis]

33 minutes ago, Eugene said:

Think people calling widespread maxs of 14C are way off the mark for next week. 

Yes, it's going to be an utterly tedious 8 or 9 instead!

[Day_9]

Who said it’s all over.  This would be so cold and snowy

[Battleground Snow]

4 minutes ago, Alexis said:

Yes, it's going to be an utterly tedious 8 or 9 instead!

Certainly will feel 18 degrees colder than that, if this is accurate. BBC going to look foolish again using their cut and paste ECM data for forecasting milder by Sunday.

 

[Uncertainty]

Clusters at day 15

 

Bifurcated 50/50 between Spring and Winter. But if the GFS suite is right, entirely irrelevant! 

FYI, seasonals starting to trickle out for Feb - Apr

CMCC suggests Winter is far from done with us yet...

Meteo-France similar, though a look at the longer lead times suggests the Feb signal is skewing the mean towards blocking, and that this would relent significantly by April (consistent with a strong late season SPV and late final warming perhaps???) Here’s the EC for MAM to corroborate 

Overall then, the broad signal for strong Feb blocking on the seasonal + MO bullishness + GFS flip = a blocked Feb still very much in the mix. We shall know very soon...

 

[feb1991blizzard]

Forget holding on now - this is where we need to be looking.

 

[Day_9]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Forget holding on now - this is where we need to be looking.

 

I’m thinking of this last week as the starter....

[sheikhy]

Unfortunately latest ecm 06z doesnt look like it agrees with the gfs at 72 hours!!ever so slightly further east!!and low not as deep around the med!!

[Updated_Weather]

Just now, sheikhy said:

Unfortunately latest ecm 06z doesnt look like it agrees with the gfs at 72 hours!!ever so slightly further east!!and low not as deep around the med!!

not really a worry, I believe the ECM 6z and 18z use different parameters than 12z so don’t worry too much.

[Purga]

Next weekend who to believe??

ECM                                                                                      GFS

 

Mmmmm... I wonder?

Latest UKMET update extract below btw

"By next weekend colder and drier conditions may gradually become established once again"

"Into late February there is a signal for higher than average pressure to expand westwards leading to an increased chance of snow showers redeveloping in the east, for conditions in the north to become generally quite settled and for unsettled weather in the south, with disruptive snow possible."

Edited February 10, 2021 by Purga

[Timmytour]

41 minutes ago, Day_9 said:

Who said it’s all over.  This would be so cold and snowy

ME LAST WEEK:   "That would be brilliant!"

ME THIS WEEK:   "Meh!  sure it may look great but experience tells me that, in the end, it would be just be cold with no real accumulation of any snow......"

I think it's going to be a long time before the me of this week ever gets over this!   

[Jono E]

As we discussed earlier, fantasy island is currently set at 72 hrs 

[Day_9]

3 minutes ago, Jono E said:

As we discussed earlier, fantasy island is currently set at 72 hrs 

Trends are cold and the Atlantic is out to lunch.  That is all.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

19 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

I wouldn’t even see that as a casting vote Nick.  Enough here to make me think...let’s see where we are come Thursday and Friday.

 

BTW folks...come early hours of Thursday morning temps of -10c could be well had across large swathe of areas.  Clear skies, light continental flow....perishing cold  

 

BFTP

 

 

The signs are creeping in, even if one looks at the T144 of the UKMO, when I looked at it I thought that undercutting could follow and it wouldn’t surprise me if it starts showing that HP further west.

GFS starting to come back into showing blocking and another easterly.  Should be interesting Model watching again over next couple of days.

 

BFTP

[winterof79]

1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

Nothing like a bit of last minute drama !

Very bizarre goings on with the GFS still churning out better runs and the ECM op getting worse with each run.

We’ll know by this evening whether the GFS is onto something or whether it’s leading everyone up the garden path ! 

In a normal set up of PV to our North West I would be sceptical of its evolution,but with a polar field like this as a starting point I ain't discounting it. The earlier warming events are still feeding into the system and, with the PV already weak, the effects may be long lasting.