Model thread discussion - cold spell looming

[Snowman.]

Both the GFS, Para and ECM want to give it another go with amplification around the 18th.

[feb1991blizzard]

7 minutes ago, joggs said:

?????????

Not going to happen now - thought that WAA was going to lead to an Easterly with that very cold trough dropping into Europe.

[DavidS]

Look at the vortex at 240. Is there not more on the table for this winter?

 

Edited February 9, 2021 by DavidS

[Allseasons-Si]

where is @MATTWOLVES,not heard from him recently,. Hope he is OK

as for the models in simplistic terms...

we want this

not this

we need to see more energy cut SE under the block to the E/NE but we still have time here,...just.

[feb1991blizzard]

8 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Bizarre ! The GEFS still show a decent amount of solutions that are better than the op run.

You’d think they’d be jumping ship by now given the other outputs and the ECM ensembles .

Still a slightly worse suite than the 12z though.

[Battleground Snow]

1 minute ago, Frosty Winter said:

Yes I do agree, and I’m sorry if I came across as negative in my post as that certainly wasn’t my intention. It just seems to be our best shot at a decent snow event that quite a few people can benefit from and I’ll take anything I can get at this point.

Wasn't negative at all , I think we would all take 1 or 2 big snow events that ended the spell, but there is an option where we can get the snow and keep the cold! 

I wasn't going to set the alarm for 4am for the first time in 2 weeks, if the 18z runs were poor, but I'll be back in the morning now

[Snowman.]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Not going to happen now - thought that WAA was going to lead to an Easterly with that very cold trough dropping into Europe.

Para wanted to give it a go too.

 

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Not going to happen now - thought that WAA was going to lead to an Easterly with that very cold trough dropping into Europe.

I think that is the thing on a number of recent runs, not going to happen now - but a few tweaks and nods towards the MJO/AAM when the models realise it, it will become a possibility, we will know about Thursday or even 0z Friday I guess!!

[Battleground Snow]

Almost a 20 degree spread at day 6

 

[Snowman.]

Could be quite pleasant 

[bradymk]

Didn’t realise there was a ECM parallel at the moment or is it new? Either way, it’s a similar run to the normal op.

[Frigid]

A lot of ensembles are keeping it cold on the pub run. Looks like a 50/50 split, still uncertain. 

[damianslaw]

Models continue to show a battleline situation over the weekend between the high to our east and the low to our west. The uppers will become milder, but the cold surface air will take its time to relinquish its grip. A messy mix of freezing rain, sleet or snow could be the order of the day, at this stage too far out to call just what precipitation will fall, where and how heavy, and more importantly how quickly frontal features move across the UK.

Its best not to look much further than the weekend - however, there are signs that significant warm air advection through the east atlantic heading into the Pole combined with arctic heights could very quickly see the atlantic held at bay for some time to come, and therefore I would be very wary of any model runs showing a swift return to atlantic westerlies or southwesterlies, we may well see a very shortlived mild S/SW airflow before heights build back in from the east.

[bluearmy]

5 minutes ago, bradymk said:

Didn’t realise there was a ECM parallel at the moment or is it new? Either way, it’s a similar run to the normal op.

The gfs parallel is back on line again 

in a bit surprised to see so many posters surprised at another go at an amplified solution 

we are due at least one more downwelling wave - I think next week is probably too soon but beyond the 20th wouldn’t be which brings the back end of next week into play 

we got a hit from this current wave but no telling if the next will work out - as the sun gets higher and the days longer the requirements become ever more difficult to achieve ....

the Scots will tell you that their hit from third week jan has barely ended since !

[nick sussex]

The fax charts look more interesting than just looking at the raw output . The occlusion takes 24 hrs to make slow progress ne wards .

And the Arpege at T60 hrs is much better than the GFS at that point .

 

[Purga]

31 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Bizarre ! The GEFS still show a decent amount of solutions that are better than the op run.

You’d think they’d be jumping ship by now given the other outputs and the ECM ensembles .

Yes, indeed, we have a few little numbers like this appearing early next week

BTW Tomasz tonight still very unsure about the weekend. Early next week the flow could be mild SW or less cold S or cold SE - great uncertainty.

Edited February 9, 2021 by Purga

[Don]

24 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I think that is the thing on a number of recent runs, not going to happen now - but a few tweaks and nods towards the MJO/AAM when the models realise it, it will become a possibility, we will know about Thursday or even 0z Friday I guess!!

Hasn't there been musings that the MJO signal looks to be muted during the next couple of weeks though?

[feb1991blizzard]

Better GEFS by 240 though, some decent latitude ridges.

[Daniel*]

Seemingly seems likely it is going to get much milder but that spread is quite something.

[Swave Snow]

2 hours ago, bluearmy said:

The gfs parallel is back on line again 

in a bit surprised to see so many posters surprised at another go at an amplified solution 

we are due at least one more downwelling wave - I think next week is probably too soon but beyond the 20th wouldn’t be which brings the back end of next week into play 

we got a hit from this current wave but no telling if the next will work out - as the sun gets higher and the days longer the requirements become ever more difficult to achieve ....

the Scots will tell you that their hit from third week jan has barely ended since !

here in Aviemore we have had snow since 23rd of December on the ground and the fall in early December 2020 lasted for a week  so you could say snow here in the village for close to 2 and a half months currently light snow and if models can be believed this situation will carry on for a while longer 

[Dave Kightley]

UKMO slightly better then last night but way to Far East.. GFS upto Monday keeps things chilly away from the Far W/SW no point looking ahead of that as it's a waste of time

[Battleground Snow]

Well I thought it would have been decided by this morning, but it's still very tight which way this is going to go,

GFS OP v para v ukmo at 144. Para is the best for cold holding on, all 3 have some kind on snow event Sunday.

 

Edited February 10, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[Dave Kightley]

It is annoying the output but I will always look if see if the high will move further West apart the initial bad position .. it really isn't that far off as long as it stays there if it goes West not South then good!

Edited February 10, 2021 by Dave Kightley

[Battleground Snow]

3 minutes ago, Dave Kightley said:

It is annoying the output but I will always look if see if the high will move further West apart the initial bad position .. it really isn't that far off as long as it stays there if it goes West not South then good!

Incredibly by day 8/9 the OP and para are backing the cold pool west, and maintaining the Scandi high... If met office have called this right, they are some kind of wizzards.

Will be fascinating if they hold firm with their long range forecast later 

 

[Battleground Snow]

JFF now, but the cold is stil there at 318, and we are back to a long drawn easterly.

GEFS attached 2m dew points and 850mbs at day 7