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Model thread discussion - cold spell looming

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

It's busy right now, so please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 
For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads. 
And for more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.
There's now also a cold spell chat and discusison thread.

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Skullzrulerz Maestro

Skullzrulerz

Posted
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
Posted
4 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Icon at 120,

 

iconnh-0-120 (1) (7).png

200 (3).gif

If anything I would most certainly take high pressure over the UK 

Need a period where it doesn't rain every single day 

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Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted
56 minutes ago, Ackkers said:

Met O moving towards mild. Petagna on twitter.

Expect their their long range forecast to change tomorrow then!

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
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Posted (edited)

ECM clusters in the intermediate time frame T120-T168:

3DC3DE12-CFAF-43DB-93C1-91DC3E10AC58.thumb.png.a3c1617a6a231bdb66dbd3ff02c76d9f.png

My reading:

24/51 high lat blocking remains, but no obvious route for UK for snow.

16/51 high lat blocking remains, and chances.

11/51 Atlantic takes over.  

Edited by Mike Poole
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JimBob Explorer

JimBob

Posted
  • Location: Somerset
  • Location: Somerset
Posted
8 minutes ago, Vadoseflame said:

Nope? I mean he isn’t wrong really.. maybe it may get less cold.. but for how long is the question? 
 

it isn’t over until it’s happening.

Honestly somewhere in Southern England could hit 15 degrees next week!  Those southerly winds next week have a long fetch on them,  nearly a Spanish Plume!! 

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Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted

Amazing how rapidly things have changed in as little as 48 hours!  I think we've had our chance now for this winter as we approach mid February sadly!

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Updated_Weather Seasoned

Updated_Weather

Posted
  • Location: Essex, UK
  • Location: Essex, UK
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, JimBob said:

Honestly somewhere in Southern England could hit 15 degrees next week!  Those southerly winds next week have a long fetch on them,  nearly a Spanish Plume!! 

If it happens..nothing is set in stone.

Edited by Vadoseflame
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sheikhy Maestro

sheikhy

Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
Posted
7 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

It's better than it's earlier run, low in Atlantic didn't send a shortwave towards the UK, and allows more warm air advection to head north,

Gfs 18z running!!for better or for worse?!!.....

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Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted
Just now, sheikhy said:

Gfs 18z running!!for better or for worse?!!.....

For worse, not expecting any miracles now!

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Battleground Snow Maestro

Battleground Snow

Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
Posted
8 minutes ago, Don said:

Expect their their long range forecast to change tomorrow then!

The tweet he put out was showing the Ukmo model at 144, and the ECM and GEFS ensembles. Information we can already see ourselves. They are not going to divulge what they think may happen on Twitter

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Duane S. Veteran

Duane S.

Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
Posted

Form horse surely now a bit of a warm up as we get to mid month.

However, the 12Zs GEFS were interesting. Asides for P20 flying the cold flag, there were a few others very close to the tipping point.

Probably grasping at straws but there’s still time for this to turn around yet. 18z GEFS will be of interest, as every new run is when it gets new initialisation data, but the 00Z suite will probably say give us a better indication as to whether or not there remains (at least) an outside chance of a dramatic turnaround . 

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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted
10 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

It's better than it's earlier run, low in Atlantic didn't send a shortwave towards the UK, and allows more warm air advection to head north,

That short wave could deliver snow to areas that haven’t really seen any though...

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted

Last minute miracles normally happen with the Atlantic moving in from the sw where they underestimate the strength of the block .

Here it’s from the west with a bloated low  . I’d be shocked if the surface cold can last beyond Sunday unless the Arpege has pulled a rabbit out of the hat .

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Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted
3 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

The tweet he put out was showing the Ukmo model at 144, and the ECM and GEFS ensembles. Information we can already see ourselves. They are not going to divulge what they think may happen on Twitter

We shall see, but I think it's a pretty safe bet their forecast will change tomorrow, unless there is a drastic flip overnight!

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Battleground Snow Maestro

Battleground Snow

Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, Don said:

We shall see, but I think it's a pretty safe bet their forecast will change tomorrow, unless there is a drastic flip overnight!

I expect it probably will, but nothing is certain yet.

Edited by Battleground Snow
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snowice Seasoned

snowice

Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
Posted
1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Last minute miracles normally happen with the Atlantic moving in from the sw where they underestimate the strength of the block .

Here it’s from the west with a bloated low  . I’d be shocked if the surface cold can last beyond Sunday unless the Arpege has pulled a rabbit out of the hat .

Your in the right place for Miracles lol.

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Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted
2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Last minute miracles normally happen with the Atlantic moving in from the sw where they underestimate the strength of the block .

Here it’s from the west with a bloated low  . I’d be shocked if the surface cold can last beyond Sunday unless the Arpege has pulled a rabbit out of the hat .

Wasn't that the worst case scenario last night for next week i.e. retaining surface cold?!

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Chesil View Accomplished

Chesil View

Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
Posted
1 minute ago, Don said:

We shall see, but I think it's a pretty safe bet their forecast will change tomorrow, unless there is a drastic flip overnight!

It is interesting to note that despite all the publicly available ops going mild this morning that Thomas on the BBC week ahead suggested that margins were very fine and that the slightest bit of amplitude could lead to the mild not getting here at all.

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Updated_Weather Seasoned

Updated_Weather

Posted
  • Location: Essex, UK
  • Location: Essex, UK
Posted
1 minute ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

It is interesting to note that despite all the publicly available ops going mild this morning that Thomas on the BBC week ahead suggested that margins were very fine and that the slightest bit of amplitude could lead to the mild not getting here at all.

I mean he is right.. wouldn’t take much adjustment,

 Time will tell.

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Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted
1 minute ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

It is interesting to note that despite all the publicly available ops going mild this morning that Thomas on the BBC week ahead suggested that margins were very fine and that the slightest bit of amplitude could lead to the mild not getting here at all.

They may have more confidence about the mild winning now, if that forecast was from earlier though, after this evening's model updates?

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted
3 minutes ago, Don said:

Wasn't that the worst case scenario last night for next week i.e. retaining surface cold?!

Yes that’s what looked to be on offer until the models decided to jump ship .

 

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Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Yes that’s what looked to be on offer until the models decided to jump ship .

 

I wonder what they will show tomorrow at this rate!  I am starting to get 2009, 2012 and even 2019 vibes I have to say, but hope that doesn't happen!

Edited by Don
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