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Model thread discussion - cold spell looming


Paul
Message added by Paul,

It's busy right now, so please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 
For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads
And for more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.
There's now also a cold spell chat and discusison thread.

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Posted
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
7 minutes ago, StingJet said:

Just an observation on the Fax charts .. a little bizarre , and I cannot recall ever seeing LP @ 1026MB ... thoughts?

image.thumb.png.f4d25dd417b62a8ab132dfc01bdbed78.png

If it is an area where the air mass is moving upwards and thus drawing surface air in underneath then i would guess it's technically a low regardless of central pressure?

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Posted
  • Location: North West of Ireland
  • Location: North West of Ireland
9 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

seems good, clearly mild in Ireland, cold in England, front assume over Irish sea, but assume no further east

ECM1-96.GIF?09-0

It's not good, if it's mild in Ireland so quickly. Previously it was looking colder for us on Saturday

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Just now, snowice said:

Manchester has moved to Scotland chasing the snow and London has moved to the North sea.lol

It does that sometimes. It doesn’t affect the actual weather being shown just the place names. WX charts site struggles when there are more than 10 people using it I think.. I wish it did change the output though ! 

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

The ECM is poor and as bad as the UKMO.

Upstream it’s flatter and makes nothing of the shortwave exiting Canada so down stream the troughing fails to elongate.

Ironic just as the GEFS improved the ECM op is going in the other direction.

Surface cold is blown away by day 5 from the most of the UK .

 

Edited by nick sussex
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Posted
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
6 minutes ago, andymusic said:

Noticed anything weird about those charts at all?

Perhaps they have renamed the shipping forecast areas?

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Posted
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
  • Weather Preferences: Hot n cold
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
8 minutes ago, snowice said:

Manchester has moved to Scotland chasing the snow and London has moved to the North sea.lol

haha how can we trust the precip chart when they cant even get map right!!

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Posted
  • Location: Laois, Ireland
  • Location: Laois, Ireland
21 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

I think someone needs to explain sublimation to the ECM. Here are the current snow depths

6BF842BA-B4D9-401F-B10C-D4C23FCDC401.jpeg

It's clear from all the comments why it is difficult to predict snow in this part of the world. Why therefore do the models seem to constantly overestimate snowfall, at least for the UK/Ireland? Sure, they can get it right at times (BFTE 2018), but most of the time, the charts appear wildly out, and I imagine the verification stats generally make for poor reading.  I would have thought the algorithms etc used for snowfall prediction would be more conservative for the UK, but maybe that's the issue, the algorithms are built for global forecasting and are not tailored for one particular region?

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Posted
  • Location: Ynys Mon - Cymru (Isle of Anglesey - Wales)
  • Weather Preferences: Whatever Mother Nature cares to throw my way
  • Location: Ynys Mon - Cymru (Isle of Anglesey - Wales)
10 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The ECM is poor and as bad as the UKMO.

Upstream it’s flatter and makes nothing of the shortwave exiting Canada so down stream the troughing fails to elongate.

Ironic just as the GEFS improved the ECM op is going in the other direction.

Surface cold is blown away by day 5 from the most of the UK .

 

Pretty much deju vue Nick from a couple of weeks ago where the ECM Op had a two day stint of dialling in mild sw'erlys for the UK for the back end of last week and this week, it resolved itself on later runs, aligning its OP with its Mean and GFS / UKMO Cold Easterly Solutions , which came to pass.

Edited by StingJet
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
12 minutes ago, swebby said:

If it is an area where the air mass is moving upwards and thus drawing surface air in underneath then i would guess it's technically a low regardless of central pressure?

It is technically a low if the pressure immediately around it is higher. ...i.e. 1028mb

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
38 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

I think someone needs to explain sublimation to the ECM. Here are the current snow depths

6BF842BA-B4D9-401F-B10C-D4C23FCDC401.jpeg

No one needs to explain sublimation or city warming to the ECM raw data.... that is what the MET office/pros/us lot do.....interpret the raw data!

 

26 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

12 ECM shows a front from the west sat stalling & then heading north ...

8E8584F2-8D40-41E7-92D8-6A0CE0CC0C19.jpeg

0AA11AEF-69EF-447B-BB7D-09022E226592.jpeg

 Looks like some snow for the Cotswolds once I know where Cardiff is....

Edited by chris55
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

The mindset difference between the coldies in winter and the heat lovers in summer in this forum is incredible. I'm interested to know- in winter is it genuine optimism or simply denial in some cases? In summer there is a lot more caution and people are often rather pessimistic- it is the opposite in winter it seems.

As far as I can see the writing is on the wall for the cold spell. Yes the models toyed with the idea of prolonging or even intensifying the cold for a couple of runs, but I've always maintained that it would be a struggle for this spell to continue beyond the weekend. That amount of energy coming into the Atlantic is far from ideal when you're looking for sustained cold.

The milder air was always going to break through sooner rather than later. It just remains to be seen how long the east of the UK can hold onto the cold at the surface.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
5 minutes ago, StingJet said:

Pretty much deju vue Nick from a couple of weeks ago where the ECM Op had a two day stint of dialling in mild sw'erlys for the UK for the back end of last week and this week, it resolved itself on later runs, aligning its OP with its Mean and GFS / UKMO Cold Easterly Solutions , which came to pass.

The problem here is the upstream pattern isn’t helping much to elongate that upstream trough . Added to the high sinking and it’s going to need a huge backtrack from the Euros .

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
20 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

Shows how much luck we get if Greece/Turkey get a Beast From The North East

 

Greece always gets all he cold eh....we are so unlucky ... 

Oh wait a minute what's this chart for tomorrow all about ......

22E6767F-B00E-4240-BFFF-E95E235BB70E.thumb.png.9460dcf690407a2952bfb6fe60533c7d.png

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
1 minute ago, chris55 said:

Greece always gets all he cold eh....we are so unlucky ... 

Oh wait a minute what's this chart for tomorrow all about ......

22E6767F-B00E-4240-BFFF-E95E235BB70E.thumb.png.9460dcf690407a2952bfb6fe60533c7d.png

 

 

Bone Dry and a three degree max for me.

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
10 minutes ago, chris55 said:

No one needs to explain sublimation or city warming to the ECM raw data.... that is what the MET office/pros/us lot do.....interpret the raw data!

 

 Looks like some snow for the Cotswolds once I know where Cardiff is....

Nope. For everyone that keeps posting the same thing & As per my previous reply to a similar post to yours .. it’s just the place names that go out of place occasionally. Synoptics are in line with other Parameters.  See below. 

1130E49A-9232-4796-964B-2672A2DEC668.jpeg

Edited by Tim Bland
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Posted
  • Location: South Staffordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: South Staffordshire
25 minutes ago, chris55 said:

Greece always gets all he cold eh....we are so unlucky ... 

Oh wait a minute what's this chart for tomorrow all about ......

22E6767F-B00E-4240-BFFF-E95E235BB70E.thumb.png.9460dcf690407a2952bfb6fe60533c7d.png

 

 

Bone dry and uncomfortably cold in an environment that screams 'snow event' - but couldn't be any less from delivering such at the surface.

A gigantic dig in the ribs as far as we should all be concerned.

The coldest uppers of the winter over our heads for 4/5 days and nothing....

About as much use as a Chocolate fireguard to protect your ice cream on the surface of the sun.

Edited by PolarWarsaw
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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

Delayed onset of the mild incursion

image.thumb.png.b397c62f9762fc42b4767d40000e0772.pngimage.thumb.png.b424c6ad7732b8ece5df8bd738833d12.png

Edited by Purga
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Posted
  • Location: Oxford
  • Location: Oxford

All charts now showing the Atlantic winning the battle,will be a big reversal if it does not happen.

Still very intriguing,not sure personally if  the change over will be as the charts suggest.

The uncertainty is still there what a turn up for books this would be if high pressure for gets

to relent.

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Posted
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland. 6m Below Sea Level.
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, snow, ice. Very hot or very cold.
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland. 6m Below Sea Level.

Continued attempts to amplify on EC Op. Even though it seems the Atlantic is ready to overrun the High, pushing it into Europe, the resistance is still there. We are not looking at a traditional strong Atlantic/Euro High combination setting up by any means.

Add to that the underestimated resilience of the deep cold over Europe and there you have it: Lots of uncertainty, despite models that seem to agree. FI is close by again.

591782145_EC-1929feb12.thumb.png.8f2f6f403273f2a543163d0370b2f7b9.png1923925649_EC-2169feb12.thumb.png.791adff04e1f99bf552e8d9e3c0fb373.png

The thing with undercutting a High is: It's like walking on a seesaw from one side to the other. It stays down one way, until you cross that middle point, when suddenly that side goes up and the other side goes down.

Options still on the table:
- High over North-Central Europe, lacking latitude, Southwesterlies over the UK
- High over Northwestern Europe and UK. Cold High, perhaps inversions.
- High over Scandi/Iceland, Easterlies/Southeasterlies, current cold flow remains.

By the way: Was ECMWF hacked by GFS, with that deep, round low at 192h?

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex

The reality is that too many succumb to the hype in this thread when the models showing a cold spell.

Maybe people will be more circumspect in future, and not scream “snowmageddon” when they see -12 uppers.

19 days to go before I start the search for warmth!

Sadly, the models have pretty much put the final nail in the coffin for this spell.

 

Edited by Djdazzle
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Posted
  • Location: Horley, near Gatwick
  • Location: Horley, near Gatwick
29 minutes ago, Weather vane said:

It's clear from all the comments why it is difficult to predict snow in this part of the world. Why therefore do the models seem to constantly overestimate snowfall, at least for the UK/Ireland? Sure, they can get it right at times (BFTE 2018), but most of the time, the charts appear wildly out, and I imagine the verification stats generally make for poor reading.  I would have thought the algorithms etc used for snowfall prediction would be more conservative for the UK, but maybe that's the issue, the algorithms are built for global forecasting and are not tailored for one particular region?

Just dropping briefly in. CURRENT snow depths? I can assure you that where it says ‘17’ it is closer to 3. Give or take the odd local variation. So let’s say between 1-5. 

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