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Model thread discussion - cold spell looming

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

It's busy right now, so please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 
For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads. 
And for more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.
There's now also a cold spell chat and discusison thread.

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted
1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Depends what you are looking for I suppose, surface cold is not enough to even keep the snow people have with the warm ground temps and increasing sun strength. I’d take clear and sunny though, anything other than barreling lows with cold rain! I’m hoping the ECM keeps the dream alive for a snowy breakdown. I’d like to see the first Atlantic push make it as far as my back yard then stall ...but that’s being very selfish lol 

Snow shouldn’t melt easily with low dew points on shaded surfaces , there’s also  a degree of sublimation taking place , the mild weather in the run upto the cold didn’t help of course but it’s been a few days of cold temperatures now so that should be less of an issue . If the surface cold can hold out a bit longer there’s still the chance of more fronts .

 

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Man With Beard Maestro

Man With Beard

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
Posted
15 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I think there’s one front on Saturday judging by the day 4 chart but not sure how potent that will be this far out .

Ah yes, good spot - a minor snow to rain event Saturday night, here's what the snow charts leave (these are usually quite stingy in the case of UKMO, SE snow is legacy of this week)

Screenshot_20210209-175804.thumb.png.0f9f0d9a1194da628b013ed654ee2bb0.png

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Sweatyman Seasoned

Sweatyman

Posted
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
  • Weather Preferences: Hot n cold
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
Posted
2 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

Ah yes, good spot - a minor snow to rain event Saturday night, here's what the snow charts leave (these are usually quite stingy in the case of UKMO, SE snow is legacy of this week)

Screenshot_20210209-175804.thumb.png.0f9f0d9a1194da628b013ed654ee2bb0.png

May aswell just rain ! Sure it wont be like that though...

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Cavehill Snow Explorer

Cavehill Snow

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, phil nw. said:

Well really by day 6 it looks a bit of a stalemate.Both gfs/ukmp show the block is not giving enough to let the Atlantic right into the UK.

It is more than likely the west will see something milder at least for a spell but a look at the gfs jet pattern at t144 shows the difficulty modeling is having in calculating the pathway forward.

gfsnh-5-144.thumb.png.ec672b31ae60660b74224c8d7d0dd0b2.png

The northern arm of the jet has no coherent pathway but does limited resistance to the ridge getting further north.The main energy in the jet is still running south so that Atlantic push remains quite indecisive up to there.

Blue mentioned the jet stream charts earlier so. Normally when it is posted there is either one or two main arms around the globe. How rare (or not) is the current pattern and what has caused it? TIA

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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted
11 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Snow shouldn’t melt easily with low dew points on shaded surfaces , there’s also  a degree of sublimation taking place , the mild weather in the run upto the cold didn’t help of course but it’s been a few days of cold temperatures now so that should be less of an issue . If the surface cold can hold out a bit longer there’s still the chance of more fronts .

 

True but at the current rate of sublimation, radiation (from above and below ) after a day of sun on Fri & Sat there won’t be any snow left to hold onto for 80% of the population UKMO has some precip across the west and north but is mainly dry for central and eastern areas. Fingers crossed for the ECM

85570F6C-3285-4A35-A8EB-7F62444E9B25.jpeg

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, Cavehill Snow said:

Blue mentioned the jet stream charts earlier so. Normally when it is posted there is either one or two main arms around the globe. How rare (or not) is the current pattern and what has caused it? TIA

I think (see my earlier post) that Meteociel have changed the way they plot this, with low jet stream winds plotted in purple.  This gives a false visual impression of where the main flow is, in my opinion.

Edited by Mike Poole
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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Popular Post
Posted

I think someone needs to explain sublimation to the ECM. Here are the current snow depths

6BF842BA-B4D9-401F-B10C-D4C23FCDC401.jpeg

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Drifter Rising Star

Drifter

Posted
  • Location: North east Hampshire
  • Location: North east Hampshire
Posted
1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

I think someone needs to explain sublimation to the ECM. Here are the current snow depths

6BF842BA-B4D9-401F-B10C-D4C23FCDC401.jpeg

Ouch!

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Purga Accomplished

Purga

Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex
Posted (edited)

Block is stronger on the 12z.

00z                                                                                  12z

image.thumb.png.512bd756acbcd9fdbae40a1706c5b9a9.png             image.thumb.png.d3f4b4c4c0ba9272e164cd28aca997fa.png

 Bear in mind that before this current cold spell there was a time when all of the models & ENS flipped mild to the consternation of many.....

Edited by Purga
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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted

seems good, clearly mild in Ireland, cold in England, front assume over Irish sea, but assume no further east

ECM1-96.GIF?09-0

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Decemberof2010 Seasoned

Decemberof2010

Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: Bitter Cold in winter and Extreme heat in summer
  • Location: Leeds
Posted
9 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

I think someone needs to explain sublimation to the ECM. Here are the current snow depths

6BF842BA-B4D9-401F-B10C-D4C23FCDC401.jpeg

To be fair it’s got Leeds spot on to the exact cm

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StingJet Community Regular

StingJet

Posted
  • Location: Ynys Mon - Cymru (Isle of Anglesey - Wales)
  • Weather Preferences: Whatever Mother Nature cares to throw my way
  • Location: Ynys Mon - Cymru (Isle of Anglesey - Wales)
Posted

Just an observation on the Fax charts .. a little bizarre , and I cannot recall ever seeing LP @ 1026MB ... thoughts?

image.thumb.png.f4d25dd417b62a8ab132dfc01bdbed78.png

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snowice Seasoned

snowice

Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

seems good, clearly mild in Ireland, cold in England, front assume over Irish sea, but assume no further east

ECM1-96.GIF?09-0

At 120 it's over England as well

image.thumb.png.834085743abc44b33cd9c52f51349b48.png

Edited by snowice
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Cloud 10 Veteran

Cloud 10

Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
Posted
3 minutes ago, StingJet said:

Just an observation on the Fax charts .. a little bizarre , and I cannot recall ever seeing LP @ 1026MB ... thoughts?

image.thumb.png.f4d25dd417b62a8ab132dfc01bdbed78.png

I wish it was a bit further SW.

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Cavehill Snow Explorer

Cavehill Snow

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I think (see my earlier post) that Meteociel have changed the way they plot this, with low jet stream winds plotted in purple.  This gives a false visual impression of where the main flow is, in my opinion.

Thanks for the information - i agree with your conclusions.

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andymusic Accomplished

andymusic

Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
Posted
3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

12 ECM shows a front from the west sat stalling & then heading north ...

8E8584F2-8D40-41E7-92D8-6A0CE0CC0C19.jpeg

0AA11AEF-69EF-447B-BB7D-09022E226592.jpeg

Noticed anything weird about those charts at all?

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TROY Enthusiast

TROY

Posted
  • Location: Eastdene nr seaford
  • Weather Preferences: warm spring days and summer thunderstorms
  • Location: Eastdene nr seaford
Posted

I Would take it day by day, but each day now the sun is gaining strength, once that wind backs more to the south of East at least it will warm up some.

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snowice Seasoned

snowice

Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
Posted
6 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

12 ECM shows a front from the west sat stalling & then heading north ...

8E8584F2-8D40-41E7-92D8-6A0CE0CC0C19.jpeg

0AA11AEF-69EF-447B-BB7D-09022E226592.jpeg

Manchester has moved to Scotland chasing the snow and London has moved to the North sea.lol

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StingJet Community Regular

StingJet

Posted
  • Location: Ynys Mon - Cymru (Isle of Anglesey - Wales)
  • Weather Preferences: Whatever Mother Nature cares to throw my way
  • Location: Ynys Mon - Cymru (Isle of Anglesey - Wales)
Posted
3 minutes ago, andymusic said:

Noticed anything weird about those charts at all?

Earth Crust Displacement ? 

 

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